Predicting the 2016 U.S. Olympic Team By Age, Experience

As we kick off the year 2016, SwimSwam is taking a multi-faceted look at the biggest storyline of the coming season: rosters for the Rio Olympic Games.

We already took a bird’s-eye look at the top contender in each event with our formcharts (men’s and women’s) for the year 2015, and we’ll be looking closer at each individual event as Olympic Trials draw nearer.

But for now, let’s take a different approach, dealing more with the traditional makeup of the U.S. Olympic swim team based on age and Olympic experience before looking at the specific swimmers who could fit into those categories.

We broke down every U.S. Olympic swim team going back to the 2000 Sydney Games based on two categories: age and experience. Specifically, we looked for how many 18-and-under swimmers made each team, as well as how many 30-and-older swimmers did the same, plus broke the teams down into athletes with previous Olympic appearances and “new” Olympians.

*Note: ages are based on the historic Olympic rosters on usaswimming.org, which typically calculates an athlete’s age during the Olympic Games themselves, rather than during the Olympic Trials. We’re using that cutoff for our lists of 2016 contenders as well, which eliminates a few big names like Katie Ledecky, Katie McLaughlin and Kathleen Baker.

Predicting Olympic Team Composition By Age

18 & Unders

  • Men’s Average: 1 per Olympic team
  • Women’s Average: 4.75 per Olympic team

Every year since 2000, the U.S. Olympic team has featured a small handful of young talents, though much more frequently on the women’s side than the men’s. In fact, only 4 men 18 years old or younger have made the U.S. Olympic team in the 21st century, three of them in the year 2000. That team featured 17-year-old Ian Crocker, 17-year-old Aaron Peirsol and a 15-year-old Michael PhelpsThe most recent 18-and-under male on the U.S. Olympic team was Larsen Jensen in 2004.

Since then, the youngest age of a member of the men’s team has gone up significantly. In 2008, a 19-year-old Nathan Adrian was the most youthful member of the U.S. men’s Olympic team, and in 2012, it was a pair of 21-year-olds (Andrew Gemmell and Connor Jaeger) on the lower end of the age spectrum.

On the women’s side, though, there are typically many more spots for under-18 athletes. Since 2000, the team has averaged just under 5 juniors per Olympic cycle, including 4 in London.

Further, each women’s Olympic team from 2004 onwards has featured at least one swimmer 16 years old or younger: 15-year-old Katie Hoff and 16-year-old Dana Vollmer in Athens, 15-year-old Elizabeth Beisel and 16-year-old Chloe Sutton in Beijing and 15-year-old Katie Ledecky in London.

The number of under-18 women on the Olympic team has dipped some since 2000, but not nearly as much as on the men’s side. 7 juniors made the women’s Olympic team in 2000, and though the number sank to 2 in 2008, it doubled again to 4 in 2012.

2016 Contenders

Let’s lay out some of the top contenders, then select some way-too-early predictions based on the averages discussed above.

As much as young talents have captivated have captivated SwimSwam readers of late, it would be a major historical shift for a large number of 18-and-under boys to make the U.S. team for Rio. Still, though, with the explosion of age group swimming over the past few years, 2016 might finally be the year junior men break their way back onto the U.S. Olympic team.

Men (1)

(ages as of the end of the 2016 Olympic Games)

  • Maxime Rooney (18): 100 free, 200 free
  • Ryan Hoffer (18): 100 free
  • Michael Andrew (17): 100 breast
  • Sean Grieshop (17): 400 IM
  • Reece Whitley (16): 200 breast

With only 1 swimmer to pick, we’ll go with Rooney, the junior world record-holder in the 200 free. Rooney seems somewhat more likely than the field given his best two events are relay selection races that will select up to 6 swimmers each for the Olympic team.

If history holds on the women’s side, it’s less a question of “if” and more a question of “who” regarding juniors on the Olympic team. But the list is fairly wide open, especially with World Champs team members Katie Ledecky, Kathleen Baker and Katie McLaughlin all turning 19 before the end of the Olympic Games. With that in mind, here are some of the top female contenders.

Women (5):

  • Becca Mann (18): 800 free
  • Amy Bilquist (18): 50 free, 100 free
  • Claire Adams (17): 100 back, 200 back
  • Cassidy Bayer (16): 200 fly, 100 fly
  • Alex Walsh (14): 200 back
  • Sierra Schmidt (18): 400 free, 800 free
  • Erin Voss (18): 200 back
  • Lauren Case (18): 200 fly, 100 fly
  • Meghan Small (18): 200 IM
  • Erin Earley (17): 200 back
  • Courtney Harnish (17): 200 fly, 400 free
  • Hannah Kukurugya (17): 200 fly
  • Eva Merrell (16): 100 fly
  • Grace Ariola (16): 200 back

Picking 5 out of this wide crew is difficult. The backstrokes seem the most loaded with young talent, but with Missy Franklin and Natalie Coughlin at the top, it’s far from wide open to the host of young guns. Still, former junior world record-holder Adams seems like the best bet there. We’ll go with Walsh to keep the streak of 15-and-unders making the team, as she’s currently the top contender out of that age group. Bilquist gets the relay bump for her 100 free, and Mann was nearly an open water Olympian and has a great shot at the 800. Tough call between Merrell and Bayer for a fly spot, but we’ll take Bayer at this early juncture because she has solid opportunities in two events to Merrell’s one.

30 & Overs

  • Men’s Average: 1 per Olympic team
  • Women’s Average: 0.75 per Olympic team

The men’s team has the exact opposite trend with older swimmers compared to its under-18s. Where juniors have grown scarce on the men’s Olympic team, swimmers 30-and-older had a huge run in 2012, nabbing 3 spots after taking just 1 in the previous three Olympiads combined.

The three were concentrated very much around sprints: Anthony Ervin (31) and Jason Lezak (36) in the freestyles and Brendan Hansen (30) in breaststroke.

The only previous over-30 since 200 was Lezak, who made the 2008 team at age 32.

Meanwhile for the women, there has seemed to be one “token” older swimmer in each Olympic meet. Dara Torres was 33 in 2000, Jenny Thompson 31 in 2004 and Torres 41 in rejoining the 2008 team. In 2012, Natalie Coughlin was the oldest female at 29, and she looks like a good bet to retain the role in 2016.

2016 Contenders

Men:

  • Ryan Lochte (32): 200 IM, 200 free, 100 free, 200 back
  • Michael Phelps (31): 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 100 free
  • Matt Grevers (31): 100 back, 200 back, 100 free
  • David Plummer (30): 100 back
  • Anthony Ervin (35): 50 free, 100 free
  • Cullen Jones (32): 50 free, 100 free
  • Marcus Titus (30): 100 breast

Looking at that list of names, it seems incredibly likely that the number of over-30s increases with the 2016 Olympic team. Phelps and Lochte are very probable Olympians. Grevers and Plummer are both strong bets, though the backstrokes are loaded domestically. Titus is in a similarly crowded breaststroke, but the unlike backstroke, there isn’t a world-class standout there yet. Ervin had a rough 2015 World Championships but a 2016 bounce-back wouldn’t be a surprise at all, and Jones is a swimmer one should never count out in an Olympic qualifying year.

We’ll cheat on our own self-imposed rules here and pick 4, because only 1 over-30 swimmer making the men’s team would be a pretty huge surprise at this point.

Women:

  • Natalie Coughlin (33): 50 free, 100 free, 100 back
  • Amanda Weir (30): 50 free, 100 free

The women’s side appear pretty close to recent history, with only a pair of swimmers putting up 2015 times that keep them in the hunt. The plus side for both: Coughlin and Weir both swim the relay-event 100 freestyle, which boosts chances of making the Olympic team in 2016.

Experience – Does It Matter?

We also looked at Olympic experience on the previous four iterations of the team, finding that repeat Olympians are on the rise since 2000. Here’s the data itself:

Men:

2012 2008 2004 2000 Averages
Returning Olympians 11 11 11 5 9.5
New Olympians 13 11 10 18 13

Women:

2012 2008 2004 2000 Averages
Returning Olympians 10 7 4 4 6.25
New Olympians 15 15 18 20 17

Based on these numbers, we should expect to see 25-30 brand-new Olympians anointed this summer between the two genders, with 20-25 previous Olympians making return trips to the squad.

For reference: based on last year’s U.S. National Team qualifying times, a hypothetical U.S. Olympic Team selected from those times would feature 8 returning male Olympians and 9 returning female Olympians. To complement them, the team would feature 18 new male Olympians and 13 new females.

We broke down the idea of international and Olympic experience further in a separate piece from last fall. You can find that here.

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BDL SWIM
5 years ago

Alex Walsh.. do people realistically think she’ll drop enough time to make top 2 in the 200 back? Her best time is 2:10 and I think it will take at least 2:06 to make the team. Barring any disasters, Missy will be #1. Competition for the 2nd spot will be intense, especially with Maya Dirado in the mix. The only way I can see Alex Walsh making the team is if (a) Dirado doesn’t swim the 200 back, and (2) Beisel is still hampered by injury.

Hswimmer
5 years ago

She has been consistently dropping tons of time over 2015. If she keeps doing that I think Alex has a good chance of making it. I think Dirado will focus more on 200&400im maybe even 2fly and 2free. Those are more open events for Dirado to make the team in.

Ervin
Reply to  Hswimmer
5 years ago

Disagree. At this point the 2nd spot in the 2back in DiRado’s to lose. She has a better chance of making the team there than in the 2fly. Your 200free comment is valid however. Not something I’ve considered for her before but she has a shot. Alot of girls with 158’s right now tho.

hswimmer
Reply to  Ervin
5 years ago

Really? I think her fly is coming along much better than backstroke. I guess it’s just my opinion:). I hope she does well in any of the events she chooses to do at trials, as well as Ms. Walsh.

The Grand Inquisitor
Reply to  Ervin
5 years ago

Take a look at the trials event schedule – the placement of the 200 Free is sub-optimal for women 200IM’ers. The 200 Free and 200IM are in the exact same sessions (so it would be a double) with the 200IM following the 200 Free.

hswimmer
Reply to  The Grand Inquisitor
5 years ago

She’s capable. Since 200 IM is first I say the free is worth a shot.

The Grand Inquisitor
Reply to  hswimmer
5 years ago

Not sure what you mean, 200 Free comes first in the session (also the 200 Fly semi comes immediately before the 200IM final, also likely ruling that event out). Check for yourself:

http://www.usaswimming.org/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabId=2124&Alias=Rainbow&Lang=en

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 29 (Evening)
Men’s 100m Free – Semifinal
>>Women’s 200m Free – Final
Men’s 200m Fly – Final
>>Women’s 200m Fly – Semifinal
Men’s 200m Breast – Semifinal
>>Women’s 200m IM – Final

A
5 years ago

I would have added Allie Szekely to the 18 and under list. Ranked solid in the 200 back. Has the potential to shine in other events (200 IM in particular). Olympic year brings out the gold in everyone.

hswimmer
Reply to  A
5 years ago

Ms. Szekelly does have a good chance, however she is not as consistent at big meets as some others!

Ervin
5 years ago

On a side note…does swimswam plan on doing an article on how many swimmers will call it quits after Rio? At this point i think the list of potential retirees is pretty long.

mcgillrocks
Reply to  Ervin
5 years ago

Phelps
Lochte
Ervin
Jones
Grevers
Clary

Coughlin
???

Admin
Reply to  Ervin
5 years ago

Ervin – the subject has come up. For now, we’ve stayed away, because it would be nothing more than “name the oldest swimmers” until people start making comments hinting at their plans.

Ervin
Reply to  Braden Keith
5 years ago

Probably best to wait, but I’d caution that at this point its merely “name the oldest swimmers”. The only swimmers I’ve heard comment on it (Phelps aside) are fairly young: DiRado, Biesel, Bartholomew. They’re what? 21-23?

hswimmer
5 years ago

This has nothing to do with this, but I wonder how Ms. Walsh’s times from juniors and other meets will stack at NCAA’s at just 14 O.o

Markos
5 years ago

What about Texas 5A swimmer who won state with an overwhelming amount of skill and effort and won nationals as a freshman for the 500 free Gabrielle Kopenski

Admin
Reply to  Markos
5 years ago

Hi Markos, I don’t think I understand your question? What about her?

mcgillrocks
5 years ago

Hoffer is 18 by the time Rio rolls around, but also a junior? It would seem he was held back or delayed starting school, because where I’m from (and I think most district do this) the idea is for rising HS seniors to by 17 on Sep 1, and Hoffer turns 18 over a month before that point.

barbotus
Reply to  mcgillrocks
5 years ago

I don’t know about Hoffer’s birthday, but where I’m from it has become increasingly popular to delay the start of school for young 5-year old boys (particularly those with June-October birthdays) due to perceived lack of social or physical maturity to attend school. And certainly there are some who make this choice who are angling for a future physical maturity for athletic advantage at the end of high school.

Please don’t misunderstand me… I am not suggesting that this is true of Hoffer. I have absolutely no knowledge of him. And there are many, many valid reasons to delay the start of school for young kids. I’m just noting that in my limited experience it seems to happen far more… Read more »

CK
Reply to  mcgillrocks
5 years ago

It’s different in different regions. When I was growing up in Houston, you had to be five when kindergarten started in mid-August to be in the class. The youngest kids our class had early August birthdays, and some of the kids with summer birthdays waited until the next year to start. I have a March birthday, and when I moved to the East Coast, I went from being one of the younger kids in my class to one of the oldest.

Swimmy
Reply to  mcgillrocks
5 years ago

If his birthday is in July/August his parents most likely had to decide whether they wanted him to be one of the older ones in his grade or the younger ones as far as when they started him. Maturity-wise it probably helped to be one of the older ones compared to his peers. My parents decided for me to be one of the older ones compared to my classmates as well and my birthday is in May. It doesn’t have to be athletically based reasons

Pvk
5 years ago

Cassidy Bayer in the 2 fly

BDL SWIM
Reply to  Pvk
5 years ago

I think Bayer has a good shot. Camille Adams and Katie McLaughlin are good, but by no means invincible. I think the 200 fly is pretty open..

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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