Commonwealth Countdown: Australian Men Primed for Relay Sweep

2018 COMMONWEALTH GAMES

  • Thursday, April 5th – Tuesday, April 10th (swimming)
  • Optus Aquatic Centre, Gold Coast, Australia
  • Prelims at 10:30am local (8:30pm previous night EDT)
  • Finals at 7:30pm local (5:30am EDT)
  • Official Commonwealth Games website
  • Entries

For those unfamiliar with the Commonwealth Games, let’s get one thing clear: The flag an athlete wore in the Olympics might not be the same one they wear at the Commonwealth Games. That said, relay teams sometimes get split up and the results can be interesting.

No relay team is as split at Great Britain, which is now fractured between England, Scotland, Wales, as well as smaller factions such as Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man, though the latter four wouldn’t much influence a cumulative British performance anyway.

The British 4 x 100 meter medley relay team that won silver in Rio will somewhat remain together on Team England, which will retain Adam Peaty and James Guy, though backstroker Chris Walker-Hebborn is not entered in the meet. Additionally, Duncan Scott, who anchored the British 4 x 100 medley in Rio, will compete for Scotland. Walker-Hebborn was Team England’s 100 backstroke champion from Glasgow 2014 and the 2016 Rio Olympics medley relay lead-off. In his absence, the English must choose between two relative unknowns in former World Junior Championships participants Elliot Clogg and Luke Greenbank to kick off their 4 x 100 medley relay. Greenback is the likely pick based on his best time of 54.58, but Clogg should have the chance to swim in the prelims as England has 8 swimmers entered on the relay.

Team Scotland, meanwhile, boasts a probable ‘A’ team of Craig McNally, Ross MurdochMark Szaranek, and Duncan Scott.

Due to the English-Scottish split, neither team is perfect, but each separate squad is good enough to medal. England may not have Walker-Hebborn this year, but they still have the strongest middle 200 of any team with Peaty on the breast and Guy on the fly. If Peaty splits 57-anything and Guy 50-anything, they can probably hold off every other team… except Australia.

Australia, however, should have a sizable lead after backstroke, but it should be mostly if not fully made up for by Peaty on breaststroke. Guy will likely extend the lead over either of Australia’s David Morgan or Grant Irvine on the fly. However, Ben Proud will have to hold off either the reigning Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers or the textile world record holder Cameron McEvoy. Proud proved himself capable in 2016, but this time they’re racing on the Aussies’ home turf.

The 400 medley relay is a really tough call, but based off the evidence before us, it’s unlikely that England’s insane middle 200 will be enough to hold off the Aussies, who will have established a sizable lead in backstroke and will have a very fast freestyler bringing the relay home.

South Africa and Scotland will battle it out for third, but South Africa should gain the lead over the Scots in the middle 200 thanks to Cameron Van Der Burgh on breaststroke and Chad le Clos on butterfly. After that, it is unlikely the South Africans would relinquish the bronze, even though Duncan Scott will pursue them over the final 100 meters.

400 Medley Relay

  1. Australia
  2. England
  3. South Africa

The 400 freestyle relay is much easier to call than the 400 medley. For starters, the Aussies are loaded in this event. Cameron McEvoy, Kyle Chalmers, and Jack Cartwright will all contest the individual 100 freestyle, and with James Magnussen as a likely 4th, this team is just too stacked.

South Africa should easily take the silver, provided they don’t DQ. Le Clos, Calvyn Justus, Brad Tandy and Ryan Coetzee ought to be able to throw down a cluster of 48s to get ahead of England who will be in the hunt for the bronze, and at least two of them will be able to rest during prelims with Eben Vorster and Jarryd Baxter also entered on the relay.

The English team of Proud and Guy, alongside David Cumberlidge, Nicholas Grainger, and/or Jarvis Parkinson could be competitive but will have their work cut out for them.

Team Scotland, meanwhile, boasts a probable ‘A’ team of Daniel WallaceDuncan ScottMark Szaranek, and one other yet-to-determined swimmer. A combination of Scott and Szaranek, alongside England’s Guy and Proud could make for a highly-competitive British 4 x 100 freestyle relay, but we’ll have to wait until Euros or next summer’s FINA World Championships before we see that line up take to the pool.

400 Freestyle Relay

  1. Australia
  2. South Africa
  3. Scotland

Once again in the 4×200, the choice is Australia. While their depth advantage is mitigated by the fact that there is no prelims heat, they still on paper have the best foursome. But, that hasn’t always led to wins in the past.. Cameron McEvoy, Kyle Chalmers, Mack Horton, and a potential David McKeon (1:46.74), Alexander Graham (1:48.67), or Jack Cartwright (48.24 in the 100) looks too loaded for the divided UK nations to handle right now.

Wallace, Scott, Szaranek, are all capable of going 1:47s or faster, and if just one other swimmer can go sub-1:49, they should be set for silver.

South Africa is the likely pick for bronze, but they have lost some serious firepower since 2014. Le Clos and Justus, alongside Vorster and Baxter (most likely), still ought to be enough to hold off England and Canada.

England has Guy to provide one exceptionally strong leg, and Nick Grainger is also capable of a 1:47, but the team is difficult to predict after that.

800 Freestyle Relay

  1. Australia
  2. Scotland
  3. South Africa

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commonwombat
4 years ago

Disagree firmly with the author’s predictions. Of the 3 men’s relays, the only one that I can see AUS holding firm favouritism is the 4X100 where. realistically they would need to break, or not turn up on the night, not to win.

The 4×200; I see as being near level pegging between AUS & SCO. AUS lacks any real “gun” leg with the best you could realistically hope for are 1.45legs from maybe 2 legs. Of those named, Chalmers (as yet) has no “form” on this relay whilst McEvoy’s record is extremely erratic. Scott most likely outpoints the best Australian whilst Wallace & Szarenek are mostly likely near level pegging with their AUS counterparts. If the 4th leg is competent… Read more »

SuperSwim
Reply to  commonwombat
4 years ago

Milne is missing in your Scottish team. Szaranek by far their weakest link, but could split 1’47 for sure!

4×200 ‘could’ be close but I feel Chalmers will split well- so advantage Australia!

4x100Fr a battle for 2nd + 3rd between Sco/SA/Can/Eng- but my money is on Scotland!

4x100Med comes down to Adam Peaty, 56. anything it goes to Eng, Guy not known to throw down fly splits like he does 200Frees- but I’ll go Eng!

JOE
Reply to  SuperSwim
4 years ago

Guy smashed a 50.7 in Budapest. That middle 200 of Guy and Peaty will blow Aus away, just whether Chalmers has the minerals to chase.

SuperSwim
Reply to  JOE
4 years ago

Went 50.6 individually, go figure…

Stirlo
Reply to  commonwombat
4 years ago

I think you are right that the 4×200 and the Medley will be close, but I would still make the Aussies favourites. The fourth Scot is Milne, who is really their number 2 guy, and he’s a 1:46, so if your assumption is right that Wallace and Szarenek can match their Australian counterparts, then I’d agree that Duncan Scott would be the difference and Scotland would take gold. But those are big assumptions. Wallace’s form has been sketchy and he could be closer to 1:48 than 1:46 and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Szarenek can go sub 1:47. If anything, as another poster pointed out, England could be a bigger threat. They also have a big gun, of course,… Read more »

Ol' Longhorn
4 years ago

Uh, that there the best in the Commonwealth?

JOE
4 years ago

Is Proud definitely anchoring the English medley relay? Has a 48.5 PB but hasn’t swam that for a couple years, David Cumberlidge or Jarvis Parkinson are a solid 49 mid from a flat start, potentially a 48 high relay leg.

Dee
Reply to  JOE
4 years ago

Personally; I dont think England can afford to play it safe if they want gold. They’ll decide after the 400fr relay splits, but Proud has pedigree that the others just dont. When you have the raw speed he has, amazing things can happen, adrenaline can get you home fighting for your team. I’d go Proud.

Stirlo
4 years ago

I have to say, this is a Particularly poor preview. It’s hard for me to imag Be that ththere a Canadians aren’t at least an outside medal shot in one or more of the relays – the 4×100 freestyle most likely. The. There’s missing Milne in the 2×2 and the projected lineup for Dcotland in he 4×1 free is surely way off. Jack Thorpe is a 49.4 guy so there’s no way Wallace starts ahead of him. And there seems to be a lot of love for Mark Szanarek. I know Swimswam Calle Defoe him to sweep the IMs but I’m still not sure that turns him into a freestyle ace! I’d he really anywhere near the top four 100… Read more »

Admin
Reply to  Stirlo
4 years ago

Regardless of who they choose of the 5, half of Canada’s 400 free relay has never been sub-50. Splits for the bronze-medal relay in 2014: 49.4, 48.8, 49.0, 49.0. And swimming has gotten faster in the COmmonwealth since. Scotland has a 47.9 flat-start, a 49.4 flat start, a 49.9 flat start, and a 49.6 flat start without even going into Szaranak. Australia goes without saying. The Canadian men weren’t even in the top 4 of either free relay in 2014.

SwimSwamSwum987
Reply to  Braden Keith
4 years ago

Will be rough for Canada. They didn’t bring there strongest 4×100 relay and focused on some ‘developing’ swimmers. Two other men sub 50 from Canada in the 100 not on the team commonwealth team. Should be interesting how it plays out.

Jesh
Reply to  SwimSwamSwum987
4 years ago

Yeah the male Canadian team is definitely disappointing when you look at the potential for what could have been brought, but for whatever reasons, school or focus etc., we’re left behind. Will have to play a little “what could have been” as Nationals run in unison this week

Dudeman
Reply to  Jesh
4 years ago

Swimming Canada wasn’t taking any of their NCAA athlete’s because it conflicted with NCAA’s which is why the male team specifically is missing a few important members

Stirlo
Reply to  SwimSwamSwum987
4 years ago

Fair enough. Thanks for the response.

NJones
Reply to  Braden Keith
4 years ago

Hey Braden and swimswam staff. ..where have Santo and Noemi Thomas been past 2yrs in regards to Canadian international teams? Both have been full on for their NCAA squads. 

Bill G
Reply to  NJones
4 years ago

Njones – here is my recollection.

I think both Condorelli and Thomas skipped/missed the April 2017 Canadian Swimming Nationals. This was one of the selection meets for Commonwealth Games and was also THE selection meet for the other meets where a Commonwealth Games spot could be earned (e.g., 2017 Worlds, 2017 World University Games and 2017 World Juniors [obviously not in play for Noemi/Santo], etc.). So by not swimming in April 2017 at Nationals their window to make the Commonwealth Games team wasn’t really there.

So I suspect that both athletes took 2017 as a year to focus on NCAA / school / other priorities. In Summer 2018 they can swim at Canadian nationals, which is the qualifying meet for… Read more »

NJones
Reply to  Bill G
4 years ago

Thankyou. ..
I hope that is the case. ..the men need a little help. For the women how about the idea of the Pan Pac roster including all the young guns on the Commonwealth team + Thomas/Savard/Pickrem/Overholt and one or two more break throughs…!

DonQuixote
Reply to  NJones
4 years ago

Commonwealth games was selected from Summer nationals 2017, world champs, FISU, and JR worlds…. Commonwealth selection had nothing to do with April world trails held in Victoria BC. Looks like they both skipped two selection competitions. From SwimSwam interviews… I do believe Santo has citizenship to USA, Japan, Italy, and of course Canada. Leaving his doors for swimming under a different federation wide open…. should be interesting.

Iain
4 years ago

There won’t be heats for the 4x200m as only 6 teams are entered (AUS, CAN, ENG, GIB, RSA, SCO)

Admin
Reply to  Iain
4 years ago

Fair point.

Pvdh
4 years ago

Watching the split UK team at CGs is gonna be like watching a marvel solo movie after watching an avengers movie….

Dee
Reply to  Pvdh
4 years ago

Now imagine how we feel ?

dfgdfg
4 years ago

rly hope Canadian men can come away with a medal. Possibly the 4×100 free? With Thormeyer and Kisil 47 highs?? Not sure who else tho

Teddy
Reply to  dfgdfg
4 years ago

Looks like we are losing Santo. The gem of Canadian men’s swimming. The next few years are going to be rough

50free
Reply to  Teddy
4 years ago

Why are you losing Santo?

E Gamble
Reply to  50free
4 years ago

Santo is still in school. He would have missed 2 weeks of class to attended CWG. His teammate Dylan Carter is there representing Trinidad &Tobago.

NJones
Reply to  dfgdfg
4 years ago

Hey swimswam staff. ..where have Santo and Noemi Thomas been past 2yrs in regards to Canadian teams? Both have been full on for their NCAA squads. Other NCAA Canadians may have missed on commonwealths this year due to short turnaround but have our will rep Can swimming again (ie Sydney Pikram)…

dfgdfg
Reply to  NJones
4 years ago

Ya I’m really wondering where they went!!

Ragnar
4 years ago

As the biggest USA fan out there, I still hope Australia gets it together for Toyko. Or at least worlds next year. If they could all peak at the same time a 47.2 lead and all 47 and below after that is perfectly doable, if the partying doesn’t happen again. Not only that, but they need to give dressel somebody to race. He needs some 47 flat friends to drive him to 46.8 and beyond

About Reid Carlson

Reid Carlson

Reid Carlson originally hails from Clay Center, Kansas, where he began swimming at age six.  At age 14 he began swimming club year-round and later with his high school team, making state all four years.  He was fortunate enough to draw the attention of Kalamazoo College where he went on to …

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