With mid season invites in the bag, pretty much every team in the country has had a meet that they’ve taken seriously. This means that we can finally start to get some useful information by comparing team’s times so far. The easiest way to do this is with our Swimulator. The Swimulator takes everyone’s top times so far this season and scores out a national meet respecting individual event limits and reasonable event choices (swimmers can’t do two events in a row). No diving is included.
For the men, this puts Cal on top over Texas by a score of 517.5 to 442.5. Despite the advantage to Cal, this is actually a good result for Texas. At this point last year, Cal had a 112.5 point advantage over Texas. Cal went on to outscore Texas at nationals by 69.5 points in the swimming events at nationals, but Texas won the meet with on the back of their 81 diving points. None of Texas’s divers graduated. This year Cal are ahead by only 75 points. Both teams have significantly more points in the Swimulator rankings than they did at this point last year.
Cal project to 188 relay points, they have a top 2 ranking in every relay and the top ranking in 3 relays. Texas project to 154 relay points. They have a top 3 time in 4 of the 5 relays including a #1 ranking in the 800 free relay. Their main failing is the 200 medley relay where they currently rank 10th.
Cal have 13 individual swimmers projected to score, including 6 swimmers with 25 or more points. Texas have 16 swimmers ranked in scoring range with 5 projected to score 25 or more.
Texas and Cal’s improved totals may be a bad sign for Indiana and NC State, last year’s 3rd and 4th place teams. Indiana are only 34.5 points ahead of where they were at this point last year (this year: 189, last year: 154.5) when they went on to score 324 swimming points at nationals. Cal are 45 points ahead of last year, Texas are 82.5 points better.
NC State are behind their pace from last year at this point (this year: 265, last year 304). The gap to the top teams is still closeable, especially for Indiana with their diving strength, but the hill NC State and Indiana need to climb is bigger than last year.
One team that jumps off the page is Missouri at #7. Missouri are unranked in our current power rankings, so 7th is impressive. Last year at this point they had 104 points in the Swimulator rankings and ended up with only 29 at nationals, so some drop off again this year wouldn’t come as a big surprise. Still, with 185 points they have a significant head start on where they were last year.
The most dramatic drop off came from Arizona State who sit at only 72 points vs the 150 they had at this point last year. ASU lost some talent to transfers and their top returning swimmer Cameron Craig has yet to race this season.
If you are interested to see the full event by event projections check out the full Swimulator page here. The event projections are below the points. Just scroll down. Below the event projections are individual swimmer point totals sorted by team.
I’ll be doing write ups on the women’s rankings and some of the conference rankings in the coming days, but if you want to see those rankings before those articles are written, feel free to run the simulation you are interested in yourself.
One final thought: this type of ranking isn’t intended as an exact prediction of what will happen at the end of the season. It’s intended as a starting point when thinking about what will happen at the end of the year. This is a baseline. If your expectation is that a team will do better or worse, look at their swimmers current rankings and think about which swimmers are likely to move up or down between now and the end of the season.
Swimulator Projected Points
Swimulator projections do not include diving
|Team||Swimulator Points||Swimulator Points At this Point Last Season||Swimming Points at Nationals Last Year||Diving Points at Nationals Last Year|
|26||Missouri St. (M)||14||17.5||0||0|