How Accurate Were SwimSwam’s Way-Too-Early Olympic Trials Picks?

On January 27, 2023, myself (Yanyan Li), Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Robert Gibbs, Nicole Miller, Anya Pelshaw, and James Sutherland put together SwimSwam’s way-too-early 2024 U.S. Olympic trials predictions, around a year and a half before the competition began. Now that the meet has concluded, let’s take a look back at our predictions to see how accurate we were.

• To look at the original prediction article, click here.

Final Results

Before calculating the final score, I put together a scoring system to determine who most accurately picked out the 2024 U.S. Olympic team. For one event, writers who got the exact placement of a swimmer correct earned three points, writers who correctly placed a swimmer in the top three (or between fourth to sixth place for the 100 and 200 free races) earned one point, and writers who correctly placed a swimmer in the top six but not the top three/bottom three for 100 and 200 free races earned half a point. Based on this scoring system, Nicole had the most accurate predictions with 116.5 earned points, while Braden had the least accurate ones with 95.5 earned points. The maximum amount of points you could earn through this system was 288 points.

I understand that this scoring system isn’t perfect, but I felt that it was the system that accounted for accuracy in the most objective manner.

Scoring System:

• Correct placement: 3 points
• Correctly placed in top 3 (or in top 4-6 for the 100/200 free): 1 point
• Correctly placed in top 6 for 100/200 free (but not top 3 or top 4-6): 0.5 point

Rankings:

1. Nicole — 116.5 points
2. Yanyan — 111.5 points
3. Sophie — 107 points
4. Robert — 105.5 points
5. James — 104.5 points
6. Anya — 101 points
7. Braden — 94.5 points

Regan Smith (and Ryan Murphy)…?

The most controversial trend in our predictions was the lack of confidence in Regan Smith. Both Anya and I picked her to miss the Olympic team in its entirety, three writers had her missing the team in both backstroke events, and four writers had her missing the 200 back — an event where she was then the world record holder in. In the 200 back, James was the only writer who accurately predicted her winning the event.

We got a lot of flack for being this skeptical over Smith, and rightfully so. At trials, she was arguably the top-performing female swimmer, winning the 100 back, 200 back, and 200 fly. In addition, she also broke the world record in the 100 back final. So clearly, she made us eat our words.

I can’t speak for everyone, but a possible reason for the wariness around Smith’s career then was her sudden move to leave Stanford and collegiate swimming to train with Bob Bowman at Arizona State as a pro. She was just six months removed from making that decision, and there was still some uncertainty around whether she’d still succeed after making such a big life change (that being said, at the time she was also coming off a meet where she broke 2:05 in the 200 back for the first time since 2019). In addition, at that point, she had just missed two consecutive international teams in the 200 back. Clearly, those concerns about Smith didn’t pan out over the next year in a half.

Another miss in the backstroke department came within the men’s 100 back. Only Robert and James had Ryan Murphy winning the event, and only three writers had him making the team. Meanwhile, five of seven writers had Hunter Armstrong winning the event, while those who didn’t pick Murphy to make the team picked either Daniel Diehl or Shaine Casas to do so. Murphy proved his naysayers wrong, going on to win the 100 back at trials by a comfortable margin.

Notably, these predictions were made when Armstrong had a lot of momentum — he was just 0.01 of a second off Murphy in the 100 back final at the 2022 World Championships, and was also the world record holder in the 50 back at that point. Diehl was also just over a month removed from nearly breaking the 53-second barrier in the 100 back as a 17-year-old, while Casas put up Worlds medal-worthy performances in multiple events at U.S. Nationals in August 2022.

So go ahead, feel free to roast us, we admit that we truly missed the mark with these picks.

Gretchen Walsh Expectations

A year and a half in advance, most SwimSwam writers expected Gretchen Walsh to be America’s top female sprinter prior to Paris. Four out of seven writers had her winning both the 50 and 100 free, and every writer besides Robert picked her to claim an individual spot in either event.

At the end of 2022, Walsh was the fifth-ranked 100 freestyler and third-ranked 50 freestyler in America, and was coming off a U.S. Nationals meet where she broke 54 seconds in the 100 free for the first time 2019. She also garnered massive momentum due to the ongoing 2022-23 NCAA season, where she was then undefeated in individual events within collegiate competition. However, she had never qualified for a senior international meet at that point.

Walsh still ended up being a successful sprint freestyler, taking second in the 50 free and third in the 100 free at Olympic trials. However, what SwimSwam did not envision was that her Virginia training partner Kate Douglass would end up becoming America’s top sprinter. Douglass, who won the 100 free and became the American record holder in the 50 free, was not put in the top three for the 50 free by any writer and only Braden had her getting an individual spot in the 100 free (finishing second).

Meanwhile, writers didn’t foresee that Walsh would reach the top of American sprint butterfly. Only Yanyan and Nicole picked her to make the team in the 100 fly (finishing second), and she later went on to not only win the race at trials, but break the world record for the event in semi-finals.

Near/Total Misses

There were notably eight Paris Olympians — Emma Weber, Chris Guiliano, Anna Peplowski, Keaton Jones, Blake Pieroni (who announced his initial retirement in August 2022), Luke Whitlock, Aaron Shackell, and Charlie Swanson — that were not picked by a single writer to qualify for the meet. Notably, this came even after Swanson made the 2022 U.S. World Championships team.

There were also four Olympians that were only picked by a single writer to make Paris, with those swimmers being Jack Alexy (Robert, fifth in the 100 free), Alex Shackell (Nicole, second in the 200 fly), Erika Connolly (Robert, sixth in the 100 free), and Emma Weyant (Anya, second in the 400 IM). Weyant and Connolly were both on the 2022 U.S. World Championships, and Weyant was the reigning worlds bronze medalist in the 400 IM at the time.

Meanwhile, Jake Magahey, Claire Curzan, and Bella Sims were picked by every writer to qualify for Paris, but none of them did. Curzan and Sims were both 2021 Tokyo Olympians and members of the 2022 Worlds team, while Magahey still has yet to qualify for a long course Worlds or Olympic games.

Correct Sweeps

Thirteen placements were correctly predicted by all seven writers: Caeleb Dressel winning the 50 free/100 fly, Bobby Finke winning the 800/1500 free, Nic Fink winning the 100 breast, Carson Foster winning the 400 IM, Katie Ledecky winning the 200/400/800/1500 free, Douglass winning the 200 breast, Katie Grimes winning the 400 IM, and Grimes getting second in the 1500 free.

Most of those picks seemed like pretty much a given even a year and a half in advance. However, there were some question marks surrounding Dressel and Douglass’ sweeps. At that point, Dressel was on a competitive swimming hiatus, which started in June 2022 when he abruptly left in the middle of the 2022 World Championships and didn’t end until May 2023. There were many questions surrounding whether he’d ever return to form then — which he did, but it only happened this year (he missed the 2023 World Championships team).

Meanwhile, Douglass didn’t really gain a dominant advantage on Lilly King until she broke the American Record in the 200 breast this January. She beat King for the first time at an international qualification meet this year, but finished second to her at both the 2022 and 2023 World Championship qualification meets.

Shoutout to Robert, who was the only writer that correctly predicted an entire top three in an event (the men’s 400 IM).

Full Men’s Results

Full Women’s Results