The American men haven’t had a medalist in the 1500m freestyle since Larsen Jensen finished second to Grant Hackett at the 2004 Athens Games. With Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri lighting up Europe and China’s Sun Yang back in the mix, it won’t be easy for the Americans to end that drought, but several candidates could be in contention come Rio.
Right now, Connor Jaeger looks like the man to lead the American Olympic charge in the distance events. Coming off a 1500m freestyle silver medal at the 2015 World Championships and a 1500m freestyle gold medal from the 2014 Pan Pacific Championships, he’s ranked 16th in the world this season with only one American ahead of him: Jordan Wilimovsky.
Jordan Wilimovsky (photo: Mike Lewis)
Wilimovsky threw down a very fast 14:53.12 at the Arena Pro Swim Series at Mesa earlier this season. That time ranks him sixth in the world this year, and puts him in a position to make the Olympic team in this event.
At the 2015 World Championships, Wilimovsky came home with a gold medal in the 10 km open water race, already qualifying him to swim in Rio. With that pressure off, there’s a chance he could be fighting to make the team in the pool too, and pull off an Ous Mellouli type of double.
If anyone has the power to put a stop to Wilimovsky, it’s Michael McBroom who’s the third ranked American this season in the 1500. McBroom has speed and has been on the verge of a huge international breakout for some time now. At the 2013 World Championships in Barcelona, McBroom threw down a silver medal performance in the 800m freestyle. Since then, he’s been quiet, but he is still the American record holder in the 800 with plenty of potential to make the Olympic team
Sean Ryan is another swimmer who will likely make the final, and potentially take down some of the big names in it. The Club Wolverine swimmer holds a personal best of 14:57.33 in this event from the 2015 summer nationals and will be looking to improve upon that this summer in order to make the team.
Penn’s Chris Swanson won his school’s first-ever NCAA title in any men’s swimming or diving event. (Photo Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)
The talent coming out of the NCAA looks to be in the forefront in the distance events. Almost out of nowhere, Chris Swanson roared in to drop over eight seconds off his personal best and win the 1650 at the NCAA Championships for the University of Pennsylvania. His 14:31.54 time puts him right in contention with guys like Smith; however he hasn’t shown much in terms of long course swimming. Last year at the 2015 U.S National Championships, he was a 15:46.22, a time that wouldn’t get him close to contention for an Olympic berth.
Townley Haas is also one of the top prospects coming out of the NCAA. The Texas swimmer trains with Smith, and has proven to be very fast. Haas finished fourth in the 1650 at the NCAA Championships with a swift 14:34.36, won the 500 in a 4:09.00, and won the 200 in a 1:30.46 which broke the previous American record. Haas also split the fastest 200 freestyle split in history as a member of the winning 4×200 freestyle relay.
While Haas could possibly be targeting a spot on the Olympic 4×200 freestyle relay, or a spot in the 400 freestyle, it’s likely he’ll also tackle the 1500. He’s got the speed based on his 200 time, and he’s clearly got the endurance.
Andrew Gemmell has proven his speed in the long open water races, however most recently he won a major international medal in the 1500. At the Pan American Games in Toronto last summer, Gemmell finished second in the 1500 to Canadian Ryan Cochrane.
Gemmell has the endurance, but he hasn’t shown that he has the speed to make the team.
PJ Ransford from Michigan posted a 15:18.46 1500m freestyle at Winter Nationals earlier this year, and a 14:36.61 at the 2016 Men’s BIG 10 Championships in the 1650. He’s got the endurance and speed to compete with some of these guys, but he will need to make some sizable drops to be in the mix for a top two spot.
Eighteen-year-old True Sweetser could be the man to complete the top eight picture in the 1500. The young Gator Swim Club swimmer has clocked in at a 14:48.38 1650 this year and a 15:14.92 1500m freestyle.
TOP EIGHT
| SWIMMER | BEST TIME (SINCE 2012) | PREDICTED TIME IN OMAHA |
| Connor Jaeger | 14:41.20 | 14:44.00 |
| Jordan Wilimovsky | 14:53.12 | 14:49.00 |
| Townley Haas | 15:41.27 | 14:51.50 |
| Michael McBroom | 14:53.95 | 14:51.60 |
| Sean Ryan | 14:57.33 | 14:56.00 |
| Andrew Gemmell | 14:52.19 | 14:58.00 |
| PJ Ransford | 15:14.04 | 15:05.00 |
| True Sweetser | 15:10.73 | 15:07.00 |
DARKHORSE: Sean Grieshop
Grieshop has been an exceptional age group swimmer, and with some push he’s in the running to make finals at the US Olympic Trials. The Nitro swimmer has put up some very fast times in the IMs and mid-distance freestyles. There’s no telling if he’ll swim the 1500 considering that he’ll likely have a hefty schedule with the IMs and mid-distance freestyles, but if he does, he’s the darkhorse to swim into the spotlight.
Kinda shocking that Clark Smith wasn’t even mentioned in your article. I wouldn’t dare leave him out of top 8. Guess you’ve never watched several days of UT’s midseason distance workouts? I can only assume you are trying to piss him off and make him prove you WRONG? Times will tell.
Lol good job reading the article
You forgot about me. I’ll be in top 8. I already went a best time without taper this season!
Told you
While I generally disagree with some of 1) the recency bias, and 2) the extrapolation from short course yards to long course meters that many articles use, I am going to have to contradict myself for one of my boys. So I admit I am biased but I think it was a mistake to leave Swanson out of the top 8. He trains like he needs training to pay his rent and buy groceries. He races even better. It’s not like he swam a 1650 where he died at NCAAs. The long pool will be no problem. Any citation to his best long course time last summer is ill founded considering this weekend he beat it by ten seconds on… Read more »
Brendan- I definitely don’t think anyone is discounting him because of where he went to school. If I’m remembering correctly, you also went/go to Penn and have had a great career so far. I used to train with Chris in the summers at Bolles and have always admired his work ethic. The preview was posted earlier this week, so whatever time he swam this weekend wouldn’t have happened before the preview was published. I didn’t write this one, but I think Mitch included a paragraph about him because no one wants to count him out. Saying his past performances weren’t Olympic berth material doesn’t have to mean Chris won’t swim fast enough in his future performances (very near future in… Read more »
Agreed. Just wanted to add my opinion that he should be in the final (with some evidence even if it’s just insider info I have from training with home everyday). Thanks for responding.
Matt Hirschberger has been quiet the last few months… he’s my dark horse
If you subtract the madness of the Townley Haas prognostication it all looks fairly reasonable.
A bit off topic, but something I’ve been wondering–does anyone know the history/why track and field gets three entries per event at the Olympics and swimming gets two? I can see why some sports get three athletes/event, such as in figure skating in the winter olympics, where top nations can qualify three based on results at world championships–in such a sport, athletes don’t compete in multiple events, so there aren’t a billion athletes going and a third spot seems appropriate. T&F feels similar to swimming, though, in terms of number of events and number of athletes going and capacity (many track events also run in lanes), so I’ve always wondered why track gets three.
Northernsue posed the question was does USA track and field get 3 spots and swimming get 2?
Answer: Because the number of overall events in track and field are greater than the number of over all events in swimming.
And in 1976, the American men dominated the pool to the extent that they want 1-2-3 in 6 or 7 events. Americans won every event in the pool except 200 breast which was won by an athlete (David Wilkie) who was training in the US. (And, FYI, Americans went 2-3 in that event.)
The IOC decided that the optics of that sort of domination just didn’t look good.
Today that rule would not be needed, can´t see any country get top 3 on any events (Closest would be US men 100 back and Australia women 100 free) but they would not be favorite at all to take top 3..
But OG are getting more and more expensive.. while taking top 3 on 100/200 free would not change much because of relays but on other events it would increase the number of athletes overall and incurr more cost.
I agree, and I’m not sure I would advocate for three spots/more athletes to be added. But given the costs, etc., why does track get three? Why are they not restricted to two? I am sure there is a history/reason, but I am not familiar with it.
Agreed, I actually find it hard for track and field not be cut down.. they would still take 4 guys for 4×100 and for 4×400.. (even usually they use 200 guys on the corners for 4×100).
For a quick search, many events rarely reach the 3-limit because of the cuts.. But probably the number would go down if a 2 limit-rule
Omaha
Connor Jaeger 14:41.41 US Open record
Jordan Wilimovsky 14:45.96
Rio
Connor Jaeger 14:36.63 in American Record for silver
Jordan Wilimovsky 14:44.57 for 6th
Hmmm… Towny Haas wins 2 races at NCAAs, and 2 ARs, and is pick to make the team in the 200, 400, and 3rd in the mile preview. If NCAA success is assumed to translate to LCM I can’t see why Caleb Dressel isn’t picked to win the 50. He was .1 slower than Nathan Adrian before he had a breakout this season and dropped .4 in the 50 scy. Can’t imagine him being slower than 21.3 or 47.5 this summer. Adrian will make Rio but not in front of Caleb Dressel… He’s too hot and is on a roll…
1 American Record*
I have no doubt that Dressel is able to swim that kind of times next summer. I just hope he will do it when it counts the most, in Rio. By the way who cares if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the 50? The only goal for these guys is to qualify. If you beat Adrian by a wide margin at trials and one month later you are beaten by that same Adrian at olympic games, I think you look idiot.
It looks like for many American fans the trials are more important than the olympic games. They expect crazy swims there with world records. It’s weird to me. Trials are just a qualification meet. If I’m a… Read more »
” If I’m a fan of Kevin Cordes I would be worried if he swam 2.07.20 at trials.”
If Kevin does a 2:08.5 at trials then he may not even compete in Rio. If one of Prenot, Licon, Fink, or even someone like Whitley drop down a couple 2:08.3s in Omaha he’ll be staying home. Even if you were confident a 2:08 would be good enough to qualify that’s a fine margin to cut in training and taper to be expecting to race one second, a second and a half, what have you, away from what you believe to be is your best. It doesn’t really work like that. Only a dominant swimmer like Ledecky has the comfort zone to… Read more »
Very well said, sir!
*clap! clap! clap!
Phelps has that “cushion” for 200 fly/IM but not for the 100 fly.. but even more “difficult” is his situation for 100/200 free.
About the 1500.. Paltrinieri seems the heavy favorite.. Sun, Horton and Jaeger will fight for the last 2 medals… if I were to choose a “outsider” to breake into the minor medals would be Detti..