SwimSwam Readers Predict Nationals: Pick’em Analysis Individual Events

by Andrew Mering 3

March 22nd, 2017 College, News

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There is a theory in economics that under certain circumstances combining the opinions of a large group of people can predict the future better than the most informed experts can on their own. By that logic perhaps the best way to predict the results of the upcoming NCAA men’s championships is to look at the 793 entries in the pick ’em contest. I included a table below with the collective predictions of the contest for each event.

Ryan Murphy was picked by 100% of entries to win the 200 back. That’s not easy to do. Katie Ledecky wasn’t picked to finish first by 100% of entries in any of her event in the women’s contest. The next biggest favorites are Will Licon in the 200 breast with 99.6% of entries picking him, Ryan Murphy in the 100 back with 99.4%, Caeleb Dressel with 98.7% in the 50 free, 98.1% in the 100 free, Chase Kalisz with 97.2% in the 400 IM, and Joseph Schooling with 90.7% in the 100 fly.

The weakest favorite is Will Licon in the 200 IM with 40.3% of entries picking him first. Next is the Florida 400 free relay with 43.3%, and the Florida 200 free relay with 48.7%

By adding up the field’s percentage for each of an entry’s picks, we can figure out which entries were the most and least similar to the field as a whole. The most similar was Bob123 with 32.89. The least similar was Dylan Englebright with 16.61. The top 10 most and least similar can be found in the table at the bottom of the article.

Pick’em Predictions

The percentages are the proportion of entries that picked that swimmer/team to finish in that place

800 Free Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Texas 67.4% 11.7% 5.8% 4.9%
North Carolina State 27.4% 48.8% 15.3% 4.6%
California 2.8% 20.4% 33.8% 26.4%
Indiana 1.4% 9.2% 21.7% 29.7%
Florida 0.8% 8.6% 20.2% 23.2%
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.4%
Michigan 0.6% 0.9% 1.2%
Stanford 0.4% 0.6% 3.0%
Louisville 0.1% 0.8% 4.1%
Southern California 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
Georgia 0.9% 1.8%
Auburn 0.1%

200 Free Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Florida 48.7% 26.1% 19.0% 5.3%
Texas 31.5% 18.6% 17.9% 7.3%
North Carolina State 16.8% 40.6% 27.0% 10.5%
California 2.8% 6.4% 16.7% 34.4%
Auburn 0.1% 6.2% 13.5% 26.7%
Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.4%
Alabama 1.8% 5.3% 11.3%
Southern California 0.1% 0.6%
Ohio State 0.1% 0.9%
Stanford 0.3%
Florida State 0.3%

500 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Smith, Clark 58.6% 21.5% 9.2% 4.6%
Haas, Francis 26.5% 32.6% 10.9% 5.0%
Shoults, Grant 8.8% 24.5% 30.8% 18.4%
Auboeck, Felix 3.6% 11.9% 20.5% 23.9%
Ipsen, Anton Oerskov 1.0% 4.1% 11.0% 15.5%
D’Arrigo, Andrea 0.6% 2.6% 9.1% 8.2%
Minuth, Fynn 0.4% 1.5% 3.5% 11.3%
Hutchins, Matthew 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 3.9%
Litherland, Jay 0.1% 0.3%
El Kamash, Marwan 0.3% 0.5% 1.5%
Wilimovsky, Jordan 0.4% 0.1%
Sweetser, Nicholas 0.1% 1.3% 2.3%
Malone, Reed 0.1% 0.6% 1.5%
Campbell, Henry 0.1% 0.3% 0.6%
Egan, Liam 0.5% 1.0%
Mahmoud, Ahmed 0.1% 0.6%
Ransford, Patrick 0.4%
Litherland, Kevin 0.3%
Linker, Adam 0.3%
Wieser, Christopher 0.1%
Rooney, Maxime 0.1%

200 IM

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Licon, William 40.3% 23.1% 11.2% 5.4%
Kalisz, Chase 31.2% 24.0% 21.8% 15.7%
Murphy, Ryan 14.2% 22.0% 20.5% 11.2%
Seliskar, Andrew 12.7% 24.6% 28.3% 25.8%
Vazaios, Andreas 0.9% 3.9% 8.2% 17.6%
Szaranek, Mark 0.5% 1.8% 5.3% 12.6%
Finnerty, Ian 0.1% 1.0% 1.9%
Lanza, Vinicius 0.3% 1.9% 3.9%
Fiala, Brandon 0.3% 0.6% 1.3%
Switkowski, Jan 0.1% 0.6% 2.8%
Dahl, Soeren 0.3% 0.3%
Bentz, Joseph 0.1% 0.9%
DeVine, Abrahm 0.1% 0.3%
Craig, Cameron 0.4%
Patching, Joseph 0.1%

50 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dressel, Caeleb 98.7% 1.4%
Held, Ryan 0.9% 72.8% 25.6% 0.6%
Schooling, Joseph 0.4% 25.1% 58.6% 11.6%
Powers, Paul 0.4% 10.1% 40.0%
Khalafalla, Ali 0.1% 2.0% 14.1%
Chadwick, Michael 0.1% 1.0% 8.3%
Ryan, Shane 1.0% 7.3%
Sendyk, Pawel 0.9% 4.3%
Conger, John 0.1% 0.5% 9.0%
Waddell, Zane 0.3% 1.8%
Condorelli, Santo 1.0%
Ringgold, Brett 1.0%
Bolleter, Cory 0.8%
Becker, Bowen 0.1%

400 Medley Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Texas 71.4% 25.6% 2.7% 0.8%
California 25.0% 62.9% 9.0% 1.5%
Indiana 3.1% 8.9% 56.5% 17.4%
North Carolina State 0.3% 2.2% 5.4%
Arizona State 0.1% 0.6% 10.0% 33.5%
Missouri 0.1% 0.3% 5.5% 12.6%
Florida 1.3% 8.2% 10.8%
Louisville 0.1% 2.3% 6.4%
Ohio State 0.1% 0.6% 4.8%
Florida State 0.1%
Alabama 1.2% 1.0%
Southern California 0.6% 1.8%
Stanford 0.5% 3.2%
Georgia 0.5% 0.6%

400 IM

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kalisz, Chase 97.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Seliskar, Andrew 1.2% 23.3% 32.2% 29.6%
Szaranek, Mark 1.0% 28.7% 32.6% 26.4%
Litherland, Jay 0.6% 43.9% 28.2% 20.4%
Roberts, Jonathan 1.2% 2.7% 9.3%
Owen, Robert 0.3% 2.8% 7.4%
DeVine, Abrahm 0.1% 0.4% 1.5%
Bentz, Joseph 0.1% 0.4% 3.2%
Swanson, Charles 0.1% 0.9%
Burns, Aidan 0.1%
Ogren, Curtis 0.6%
Campbell, Henry 0.5%

100 Fly

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Schooling, Joseph 90.7% 8.4% 0.9%
Dressel, Caeleb 7.5% 61.9% 26.9% 3.1%
Conger, John 1.8% 28.5% 53.5% 14.2%
Held, Ryan 1.0% 15.5% 58.5%
Lynch, Justin 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Josa, Matthew 2.0% 10.6%
Sansoucie, Andrew 0.9% 7.7%
Lanza, Vinicius 0.1% 1.0%
McHugh, Matt 3.3%
Quallen, Joshua 0.3%
Zdroik, Bradley 0.3%
Kaliszak, Lucas 0.1%
Quah, Zheng 0.1%
Sikatzki, Philipp 0.1%
Liang, Andrew 0.1%

200 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Haas, Francis 86.1% 4.5% 2.7% 2.0%
Pieroni, Blake 7.0% 45.3% 20.9% 11.4%
Farris, Dean 3.3% 13.2% 18.7% 20.0%
Craig, Cameron 2.7% 14.0% 17.8% 21.5%
Carter, Dylan 0.5% 9.3% 13.7% 14.9%
Rooney, Maxime 0.3% 11.9% 20.6% 21.1%
Smith, Clark 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 1.3%
Dahl, Soeren 0.6% 1.9% 3.3%
Shoults, Grant 0.3% 0.6% 1.0%
Switkowski, Jan 0.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Malone, Reed 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Gutierrez, LongYuan 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
Jensen, Michael 0.3% 0.5%
Carroll, Trevor 0.1% 0.4%
El Kamash, Marwan 0.1% 0.1%
Kremer, Tom 0.1%
Auboeck, Felix 0.4%
D’Arrigo, Andrea 0.3%
Fleagle, Joshua 0.1%

100 Breast

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Licon, William 84.7% 13.1% 1.0% 0.5%
Schwingenschloegl, Fabian 13.1% 73.4% 10.8% 2.6%
Finnerty, Ian 0.9% 6.5% 33.2% 24.6%
Vissering, Carsten 0.6% 4.2% 26.2% 24.1%
Evdokimov, Ilya 0.3% 0.3%
Kropp, Peter 0.1% 1.0% 8.2% 14.7%
Fiala, Brandon 0.1% 0.6% 7.3% 11.8%
Hoppe, Connor 0.1% 0.8% 1.7%
Duderstadt, Michael 0.6% 7.3% 11.4%
Stevens, Peter 0.1% 2.9% 1.7%
Wich-Glasen, Nils 0.1% 0.6% 2.2%
Chadwick, Michael 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Claverie, Carlos 0.6% 1.3%
McKee, Anton 0.4% 0.5%
Montague, Jacob 0.4% 1.3%
Bolognesi, Andrea 0.5%
Bish, Blair 0.3%
McHugh, Conner 0.1%
Barone, Jack 0.1%

100 Back

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Murphy, Ryan 99.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Ryan, Shane 0.6% 60.0% 26.9% 8.2%
Oslin, Connor 28.7% 40.9% 16.2%
Bohus, Richard 4.5% 9.6% 20.9%
Tarasevich, Grigory 3.1% 10.8% 19.4%
Kaliszak, Lucas 1.2% 4.1% 17.1%
Shebat, John 0.8% 2.2% 5.3%
Stewart, Coleman 0.4% 0.1% 1.3%
Vazaios, Andreas 0.3% 1.5% 1.9%
Farris, Dean 0.3% 0.9% 2.3%
Dale, Taylor 0.3% 0.5% 1.7%
Stuart, Hennessey 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Tribuntsov, Ralf 0.1% 0.6% 1.9%
McHugh, Matt 1.2% 2.9%
Acevedo, Javier 0.4% 0.4%
Dobbs, Chatham 0.1%
Loncar, Anton 0.1%
Bonetti, Brock 0.1%
Clark, Joseph 0.1%

200 Medley Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
California 86.3% 11.7% 1.4% 0.4%
Texas 8.9% 35.9% 15.4% 4.5%
North Carolina State 3.2% 32.1% 39.7% 15.3%
Alabama 0.5% 2.8% 7.2% 9.4%
Florida 0.4% 9.9% 21.2% 33.0%
Louisville 0.4% 5.1% 8.3% 19.2%
Texas A&M 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
Michigan 0.1% 0.3%
Arizona 2.2% 5.3% 10.4%
Indiana 0.3% 1.0% 4.1%
Missouri 0.1% 0.1%
Stanford 0.3% 2.4%
Southern California 0.1% 0.4%
Tennessee 0.1%

1650 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Smith, Clark 67.9% 17.7% 7.8% 2.6%
Auboeck, Felix 16.0% 36.2% 20.5% 12.9%
Wilimovsky, Jordan 10.4% 26.3% 24.5% 16.4%
Sweetser, Nicholas 2.0% 8.6% 13.6% 19.9%
Mahmoud, Ahmed 1.9% 3.8% 5.6% 7.6%
Ipsen, Anton Oerskov 1.2% 3.8% 12.3% 16.3%
Acosta, Marcelo 0.3% 1.7% 9.7% 16.4%
Ransford, Patrick 0.3% 1.0% 2.8% 4.9%
Hutchins, Matthew 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.5%
Shoults, Grant 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%
D’Arrigo, Andrea 0.3% 1.0% 0.8%
Manganiello, Blake 0.1%
Linker, Adam 0.1%
Goicoechea, Victor 0.1%
Wieser, Christopher 0.3%
Egan, Liam 0.3%
Hyogo, Kei 0.3%
Novak, Brennan 0.1%
El Kamash, Marwan 0.1%
Campbell, Henry 0.1%

200 Back

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Murphy, Ryan 100.0% 0.1%
Tarasevich, Grigory 38.2% 32.9% 14.2%
Stuart, Hennessey 36.7% 22.4% 17.9%
Mulcare, Patrick 12.9% 13.3% 17.6%
Shebat, John 7.3% 16.3% 19.5%
Bohus, Richard 1.8% 2.8% 8.3%
Roberts, Jonathan 1.3% 5.3% 7.3%
Reid, Christopher 0.8% 3.7% 6.7%
Ress, Justin 0.3% 0.3% 1.5%
Farris, Dean 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
Oslin, Connor 0.1% 1.9% 3.5%
Patching, Joseph 0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Litherland, Jay 0.1% 0.1%
Owen, Robert 0.3% 0.6%
Glover, Robert 0.1%
Loncar, Anton 0.9%
Acevedo, Javier 0.1%
Griffin, Carter 0.1%
Stewart, Coleman 0.1%
Clark, Joseph 0.1%

100 Free

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dressel, Caeleb 98.1% 1.8% 0.1%
Held, Ryan 1.4% 87.2% 9.0% 1.8%
Pieroni, Blake 0.5% 7.3% 68.6% 16.6%
Chadwick, Michael 2.2% 15.0% 39.4%
Ryan, Shane 0.8% 2.7% 18.1%
Condorelli, Santo 0.4% 0.4% 1.0%
Ringgold, Brett 0.1% 1.0% 3.5%
Haas, Francis 0.1% 0.6% 1.9%
Carter, Dylan 0.1% 0.5% 1.4%
Craig, Cameron 1.8% 13.4%
Clifton, Cannon 0.1% 1.0%
Jensen, Michael 0.1% 0.3%
Ress, Justin 0.5%
Lynch, Justin 0.4%
Rooney, Maxime 0.3%
Jackson, Tate 0.3%
Waddell, Zane 0.1%
Decoursey, Kyle 0.1%

200 Breast

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Licon, William 99.6% 0.1%
Fiala, Brandon 0.1% 28.0% 20.2% 26.3%
Amaltdinov, Marat 0.1% 0.5% 1.3% 2.2%
Evdokimov, Ilya 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Schwingenschloegl, Fabian 32.4% 24.2% 18.9%
McKee, Anton 31.5% 40.4% 17.0%
Wich-Glasen, Nils 4.4% 6.9% 18.4%
Stumph, Steven 2.1% 4.0% 8.4%
Duderstadt, Michael 0.4% 0.5% 1.4%
Cobleigh, Hunter 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Claverie, Carlos 0.1% 0.9% 2.1%
Klein, Christopher 0.1% 0.6% 1.4%
McNamara, Shane 0.1% 0.1%
Montague, Jacob 0.4% 0.9%
Loschi, Moises 0.1% 0.5%
McHugh, Conner 0.1% 0.3%
Jackson, Trent 0.3%
Hoppe, Connor 0.1%
Guest, James 0.1%
Osvath, Artur 0.1%
Vissering, Carsten 0.1%
Anderson, Matthew 0.1%
Castillo Luna, Mauro 0.1%

200 Fly

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Conger, John 61.2% 35.9% 1.9% 1.0%
Schooling, Joseph 36.2% 36.4% 3.7% 1.4%
Quah, Zheng 0.9% 5.5% 25.3% 23.7%
Kalisz, Chase 0.8% 15.6% 24.4% 23.1%
Seliskar, Andrew 0.6% 5.5% 36.8% 31.6%
Clark, Pace 0.1% 1.0% 5.8% 13.1%
Saunderson, Jack 0.1% 0.1%
Switkowski, Jan 1.7% 4.1%
Lanza, Vinicius 0.4% 0.4%
Yoder, James 0.1%
Vazaios, Andreas 0.5%
Lense, Noah 0.4%
Josa, Matthew 0.1%
Szaranek, Mark 0.1%
Bentz, Joseph 0.1%
Harting, Zach 0.1%

400 Free Relay

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Florida 43.3% 30.8% 19.2% 5.9%
Texas 39.7% 25.6% 24.6% 7.9%
North Carolina State 15.7% 36.3% 35.0% 9.0%
Indiana 0.8% 3.3% 10.8% 44.5%
California 0.5% 3.6% 8.1% 19.8%
Arizona State 0.3% 1.5% 8.8%
Southern California 0.1% 1.0%
Alabama 0.4% 2.2%
Ohio State 0.1% 0.6%
Wisconsin 0.1%
Auburn 0.1% 0.1%
Louisville 0.1%

Most Similar to the Entire Field

1 Bob123 32.89
2 MumaThePuma 32.79
3 Debrah 32.78
4 SnorkelSnrekel 32.72
5 Jules_w 32.42
6 Jman 32.36
7 mxskier 32.31
8 Matt Sabal 32.26
9 zhing 32.26
10 Juhiiz 32.12

Least Similar to the Entire Field

Excluding entries that didn’t fill out enough of the events

1 Dylan Engelbright 16.61
2 Coach CB 17.19
3 SJOK 17.80
4 maasmom 18.01
5 Drewlogan95 18.04
6 P_Sauce 18.64
7 CoachJuice 19.96
8 W3T 20.03
9 swammerNJTM 20.13
10 MHUbackstroker 20.14

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Cmon

Why do people think Floridas gonna win the 200 fr relay. Probly won’t even win the 400

Steve Nolan

Tom Tango has done a lot of cool stuff on fan projections vs computer models in baseball. Fans are good! Usually.

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