Is The 50 Free a Crapshoot?

by Kevin Hallman 21

November 28th, 2020 Lifestyle, News

This article was originally published in the 2020 Spring Issue of SwimSwam Magazine.

I’ve heard it repeated over many years of swimming: “You never know, the 50’s just a crapshoot.” Everybody knows that the shortest events in swimming are the most volatile. In a race that takes under 30 seconds, a single turn hit long, a slow start, or a bad breakout can easily be the difference between first and second place.

However, this assumption always bugged me. Distance swimming races come with their own set of uncertainties. Pacing is more difficult. Any mistakes are magnified. Taking out a 100-meter race too fast usually means you pay the price for the only last 10 to 15 meters. Taking out a 400 too fast usually has more dire consequences. Additionally, shorter events allow for more reps in practice. Most sprinters can and will train repeat 50s and 100s off the blocks to simulate race conditions — 400s or 1500s are much more difficult to train this way.

Maybe some historical examples can help us here. There certainly have been several elite swimmers consistently great at the distance events. Grant Hackett, for example, was a paragon of consistency in distance swimming. He was the first swimmer to win the same event in four consecutive World Championships, winning the 1500-meter freestyle in 1998, 2001, 2003, and 2005 — not to mention his gold medals in the 2000 and 2004 Olympics. Another legendary distance swimmer, Janet Evans, holds the record for the most U.S. national titles in a single event, with 12 (!) victories in both the 400-meter freestyle and the 800-meter freestyle.

However, there are some counterexamples of inconsistent distance swimmers and consistent sprinters. Kate Ziegler famously broke Evans’s 1500 world record during an in-season meet at Mission Viejo but would never better her performance of 15:42.54. Erik Vendt’s 1500 freestyle performance during the 2008 Olympic Trials is another famous example. In prelims, he came close to his American record with a time of 14:50.24, but the next day in finals he faded to fourth, finishing with a disappointing 15:07.78 and off the Olympic roster in that event. His prelims time would have not only qualified him for the Olympic team but put him near the top in the world that year.

It doesn’t look as though we’ll be able to answer whether the 50 is more random than other events with anecdotal evidence alone. To settle the argument, I collected data from the three past Long Course World Championships and looked at two measures of consistency: time and placing. I would compare times and swimmer places from prelims to semifinals and from semifinals to finals. Using those time comparisons, I would compare across events to see where swimmers placed most differently and where times would fluctuate the most.

There were a couple of possible drawbacks with this methodology, mostly because swimmers clearly don’t treat prelims and finals the same. Top swimmers can and will often qualify for finals without all-out efforts in prelims. Longer events give swimmers more time to adjust their pacing if they look certain to qualify for finals. But sprinters have been known to back off their effort in prelims as well, so it was unclear whether this pacing effect would affect distance events more so than prelims.

Also, in the three World Championships meets I looked at (2011, 2013, and 2015), events 200 meters and shorter had three rounds — prelims, semis, and finals — and those 400 and over had only prelims and finals. In the figures, I directly compared the differences in the prelims and finals of the distance events with the differences in the semis and finals of the shorter events. The differences between prelims and semis of the shorter events were considered separately.

What I found was fairly surprising. The least volatile races, measured by the percentage time differences between rounds, were the 100s and 200s. Oddly, the 1500 and the 50, the longest and shortest distances, were the most volatile in terms of time percentage. Of course, in terms of absolute time differences, the 1500 was the greatest.

There are two main sources of inconsistency in racing: pacing strategy, and technique factors such as starts and turns. Inconsistencies in race pacing would make the largest difference in the 1500. Technique differences or environmental differences, such as wake from other swimmers, would make the most difference in the shortest races, the 50-meter races. The 100s and 200s were long enough for smaller factors not to determine the whole race, but long enough to pace consistently.

We can see this effect when looking at the place variation. This chart shows volatility measured by placing for each distance and round. Semifinals in general have higher volatility since swimmers can move all the way from first to 16th place rather than just first to eighth in finals.

The placing in the distance events — the 400 IM, 400 free, 800 free, and 1500 free — is slightly more volatile than in the 100s and 200s, but the difference is much less so, showing that some of the time differences are strategic. The time differences between places in the distance races make it safer not to use maximum effort for swimmers who are certain to move into the final heat. And again, the 50 is the most volatile distance.

In this case, common knowledge is validated by the data: The 50-meter races are the most volatile in terms of both time and placing. The least volatile races were the 100- and 200-meter distances, most likely because the races were short enough that they can be paced very consistently but long enough that small factors such as individual starts and turns didn’t have such an outsize effect.

One other factor that I did not consider was the field depth in the races. I would suspect that sprint and distance races would be about equal in how close the competitors were, but it is usually easier for swimmers to drop to shorter distances than move into longer ones.

All in all, the differences between distances is pretty slight, so I wouldn’t go choosing one distance over another just based on this analysis. But if you’re looking for consistent success, the 100- and 200-meter distances is where I would go.

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Khachaturian
9 months ago

Very interesting! Good article!

ArtVanDeLegh10
9 months ago

It’s not a coincidence that the best win the majority of the time. It’s the opposite of a crapshoot.

College Swimmer
Reply to  ArtVanDeLegh10
9 months ago

I tend to agree – but the counterargument is, if we swam that 2016 50fr final another 100x, Ervin does not win every time, nor does Manadou win every time Ervin doesnt. But, I think if we did the same for Ledecky’s 800, she wins every single time. There’s definitely a difference in level of dominance there, but there’s still more randomness in the 50

Olympian
Reply to  College Swimmer
9 months ago

I believe that’s simply because you have less room for mistakes in the 50, Ledecky can afford to have a couple bad turns… in the 50 if you enter the water in some awkward way or soon a stroke you’re done.

College
Reply to  Olympian
9 months ago

I think that’s why they call it a crapshoot… because one mistake can blow a 50

Eagleswim
Reply to  Olympian
9 months ago

That speaks more to ledecky’s dominance than the nature of the event. How many times out of 100 does dressel win the 50 at 2018 NCAAs?

College Swimmer
Reply to  Eagleswim
9 months ago

Honestly? I think less than the ledecky situation.
On at least one start, Dressel twitches, DQs, and loses to Held. Ledecky coulda done a cannonball and waved to the camera, and still won.

Eagleswim
Reply to  College Swimmer
9 months ago

If you’re relying on a dq then I think you’ve conceded the point

Pvdh
Reply to  College Swimmer
9 months ago

If held only beats Dressel via DQ, the answer is that it is entirely not a crapshoot.

ArtVanDeLegh10
Reply to  ArtVanDeLegh10
9 months ago

Yes if you make a mistake in the 50 more than likely you aren’t winning the race at the intrentional or NCAA level BUT how often does that happen?

Now that the block and backstroke wedges are used, I can’t remember the last time a prominent swimmer ‘missed’ a start.

I also can’t remember the last time when a prominent swimmer missed a turn.

My point is that the very best don’t typically mess up in the sprint events because they spend all their time training not to mess up those things.

SoCal Swammer
9 months ago

No

chenhin
9 months ago

Hey I got one question if anyone can help me.
I´m from Germany and don´t wanna see the German swimswam page but go on the actual one / american one. Whenever I try to type in the URL or look it up on google, however, it redirects me to the German page.

There´s probably an easy fix but I can´t figure it out and it´s driving me crazy

Admin
Reply to  chenhin
9 months ago

Hi chenhin, the home page you see is based on the language you have your browser set to. If you just keep scrolling past the first few German language articles, you’ll see the standard English-language news list.

Thanks for reading SwimSwam!

Last edited 9 months ago by Braden Keith
chenhin
Reply to  Braden Keith
9 months ago

Thanks a lot!

addison
9 months ago

i would say that the 50 certainly is a lot more technical at higher levels b/c of the sheer pressure of all the little things that gotta go right to make it perfect. 100s, 200s, you can afford the early breakout, extra breath, etc. still super technical at a high level, but more room for error and time to make up for it with a stronger 25, 50, back half… just my thoughts.

super great article with some interesting research done though! thanks for sharing Kevin

Andy Hardt
9 months ago

Fascinating article!

Dirtnap237
9 months ago

I’ve always looked at the 50 as a gunfighters event. Any number of things can screw up your race and with less than 30 seconds, you have far less time to recover from the slightest mistake than you do in a 1500. Both events are about consistency. Can you consistently hit your pace markers on every 100 in a 1500? Or can you consistently hit every aspect of your race in a 50 every time you swim it? The 50 is a high noon gun fight. The 1500 is the battle of Mogadishu. Just my two cents worth, from an old long ago retired swimmer.

Dad in the Stands
9 months ago

Pool currents make more difference than most are willing to admit. Watching heat after heat of lane 1&2 torching their PB times. Kids in lanes 6, 7, 8 have no chance. That’s the real crapshoot.