Cal Set Up For Certain Victory Barring Finals Disqualifications

After two days of competition Cal pulled well ahead of Georgia making the final day of competition the deciding factor as to who the 2015 NCAA Champions would be.

Note: these projections do not include platform diving or the mile

Cal is going into day three finals with 383.5 points to Georgia’s 299.5. Stanford sat in the third spot with 264.

Based off the prelims performance this morning it seems as though Cal is a lock for the championship title unless they fall ridiculously short of expectations tonight.

Even in the freak situation where all of the Cal swimmers get the least amount of points possible and no disqualifications, and Georgia gets the maximum points possible, Georgia will not be able to win. In that situation Georgia would grab 161 points with Cal taking 83. 

There’s absolutely no way Georgia could win unless a large amount of Cal swimmers are disqualified. The only way Georgia would win without Cal DQs is if the Cal swimmers receive the minimal points and Georgia grabs enough points to just narrowly out-do Cal with the help of points from the mile. The likeliness of that happening is slim to none.  

Georgia’a big ace in the hole is that they could potentially pick up a ton of points in the mile, but most likely not enough to really make a difference. Cal has Cierra Runge who is projected to score, and Georgia has Brittany MacLean and Amber McDermott and should be in the neighborhood of 50 points in that race.

Safe to say from the bizarre occurrence of that happening, Cal is pretty much a lock for the title tonight.

Besides the battle for first, it seems as though Stanford is a lock for third. They’re set up to grab 91 points tonight which won’t be enough to beat Georgia, but will be enough to hold of Virginia.

Virginia is going into finals with 168 points just ahead of Texas A&M. The Aggies have put up 153.5 points thus far. The Aggies could potentially pull ahead tonight for a fourth place finish. They have 57 potential points set up to Virginia’s 45. If everything plays out according to prelim seeds, the Aggies will pass Virginia in the rankings.

PROJECTED POINTS FOR DAY THREE FINALS

Points School
132 Georgia
103 Cal
91 Stanford
57 Texas A&M
49 Louisville
46 Wisconsin
45 Virginia
40 Auburn
32 Kentucky
28 Minnesota
26 NC State
23 Indiana
23 Florida
21 UCLA
19 Virginia Tech
18 FSU
17 Notre Dame
16 Denver
15 USC
13 Alabama
12 Tennessee
12 UNC
11 Arizona
9 Michigan
7 San Diego St.
7 UMBC
6 Texas
4 Missouri
3 SMU
3 LSU
1 Penn State

 

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PK
5 years ago

Not quite sure where the math for Cal scoring 48 points as the min comes from-22+11+11+11+12+13+1+1 = 72.

marley09
Reply to  PK
5 years ago

I get 82 pts. If wrong i’m blaming public school education.

PK
Reply to  marley09
5 years ago

Apparently when you type 11 into the calculator you have to press 1 twice. Who knew.

100free
5 years ago

I’m taking ‘albeit’ in the title to mean along the lines of ‘barring’?

About Mitch Bowmile

Mitch Bowmile

Mitch worked for 5-years with SwimSwam news as a web producer focusing on both Canadian and international content. He coached for Toronto Swim Club for four seasons as a senior coach focusing on the development of young swimmers. Mitch is an NCCP level 2 certified coach in Canada and an ASCA Level …

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