Michael Phelps is back in action as was solidified by his 100m freestyle appearance at the US Nationals in Irvine, California this morning.
Phelps is currently seeded third going into tonight’s finals behind Nathan Adrian and Anthony Ervin, but how he got there amongst the depth of the men’s 100m freestyle is where the story truly lies.
Phelps was very slow to the first 50. He popped up way behind Adrian off the dive who was beside him in lane four, and fell even farther behind going into that first wall. Adrian was an incredible 22.63 to flip first; Phelps was way behind in 23.98.
Phelps suddenly switched to that Phelpsian gear that we’ve seen him gun-out, that absolute willingness to win, and posted a 24.79 on that last 50 to finish the race in second behind Adrian with a time of 48.77. Adrian was well ahead of Phelps in 48.24, but Phelps made up a lot of room on him as Adrian split a 25.61 coming home.
Out of all swimmers who qualified for both the A and B finals, Phelps was last to that first wall. He was also the only swimmer to break 25 seconds on that last 50. His back-half speed was there, and it looked as though he was cruising a bit during that first 50 which could contribute to the rather slow front half of his race.
Phelps has swam a similar 100m freestyle tactic to what he swam this morning before his retirement as was evident by his splits at both the 2010 Pan Pacific Championships and the 2011 World Championships.
In 2010, Phelps was out a 23.25 on the lead-off of the 4x100m freestyle relay final and came home in 24.83, a slower last 50 than what he was this morning. In 2011, in similar fashion, he was out in 23.51 and back home in 24.62.
Fast forward to his comeback and Phelps has only swam two 100m freestyle finals: one at the Santa Clara Grand Prix and one at the 2014 Bulldog Grand Slam where he posted a stellar 100m fly.
In Santa Clara, Phelps was out in 24.46 in prelims, back in 25.53. In finals he finished second to Adrian with a time of 48.80 splitting 23.73 and 25.07. That race was almost identical to what he swam this morning as was Adrian’s who split 22.96 and 25.21 in the final.
There’s no doubt that Phelps is comfortable with his race strategy, but it’s going to take a faster first 50 closer to 23-flat or 23-low in order to be able to close in on Adrian. Adrian isn’t exactly the easiest guy to close in on either as he had the fastest first 50 and tied with Conor Dwyer as the third fastest coming home. The only other swimmer faster than Adrian on the last 50 was Lochte who wasn’t far ahead with a split of 25.57.
With splits like that, Phelps is going to need to be out a whole lot faster and come home in a similar fashion. He should be able to grab a second or third place finish however.
Anthony Ervin who qualified second will be out fast with Adrian and will be another swimmer Phelps will have to track down on the last lap as Ervin was out in 22.68 to make him the only other swimmer besides Adrian under 23 seconds on the first 50.
Ervin had the slowest last lap out of the top eight with a split of 26.03, so if he wants to stay in it he’s going to need to come home in something closer to 25-mid or 25-low. Ervin clocked in at 48.71 to finish just ahead of Phelps, but given that Phelps can be out in most likely a 23-mid, he’ll have a lot of work to do to hold him off.
There’s a lot of weight riding on this event as it sets the tone for the 4x100m freestyle relay for the next two years. Matt Grevers was the fourth fastest swimmer this morning just slightly behind Phelps in 48.95. Behind him was Jimmy Feigen in 49.06, Seth Stubblefield in 49.09, Conor Dwyer in 49.10, and Ryan Lochte in 49.21.
Considering that every swimmer in the final besides Stubblefield has represented the United States at a senior international LC meet, the stakes are as high as ever to get a spot on that relay. Just 0.97 seconds separated top seed Adrian and eighth seed Lochte, demonstrating the true depth of the event.
The depth however didn’t just lie in the A final; this meet saw 32 swimmers under the 50 second mark this morning as opposed to the 17 that were under it in prelims during the 2013 World Championship trials. The depth in United States swimming is growing greatly with huge improvements from the nation’s youth.
This nationals displays some of the greatest strength in the pool that this country has ever seen. For full meet results click here.
