2021 U.S. OLYMPIC SWIMMING TRIALS
- When:
- Wave I Dates: June 4-7, 2021
- Wave II Dates: June 13-20, 2021
- Prelims: 10am CDT | Finals: 7pm CDT
- Where: CHI Health Center / Omaha, Nebraska
- 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Qualifying Cuts
- Wave I & II Event Order
- LCM (50m)
- Wave I Psych Sheets
- Wave I Live Results
- Wave I Prelims Live Stream (USA Swimming)
- Wave I Finals Live Stream (Olympic Channel)
With Wave I of the 2021 U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials kicking off on Friday, the eve of the opening day seems like an appropriate time to take a statistical look at both Trials meets.
Below we’ll take a look at the number of qualifiers per event, swimmers with the most Trials cuts, the most lopsided and closest events (on paper), and much more.
Shoutout to SwimSwam’s Barry Revzin, who crunched all of the data in this article.
Number of Qualifiers
A total of 1,543 swimmers have achieved at least one Wave I Trials standard inside the qualifying period, which began in November of 2018, with 651 Wave II qualifiers and 892 with only Wave I. It’s important to remember that several qualified swimmers are no longer swimming, so these numbers don’t necessarily reflect the number of competitors that will be at each meet.
Check out a visual look at the number of qualifiers by age below:
Including both waves, the men’s 50 free has the most qualifiers with 205, followed by the men’s 100 back (169) and 100 breast (165). The splash n’ dash is also the most populated event in terms of qualifiers for the women with 163.
On the flip side of things, the 1500 free has the lowest number of qualifiers for both genders, with 71 for the men and 60 for the women. The women’s 1500 is notably a new Olympic this event this year, as is the men’s 800 free, which has the gender’s third-lowest qualifier count with 81.
Olympic Trials Qualifiers, Both Waves
| Male Qualifiers | Event | Female Qualifiers |
| 205 | 50 free | 163 |
| 134 | 100 free | 120 |
| 94 | 200 free | 105 |
| 110 | 400 free | 104 |
| 81 | 800 free | 70 |
| 71 | 1500 free | 60 |
| 169 | 100 back | 153 |
| 112 | 200 back | 98 |
| 165 | 100 breast | 136 |
| 111 | 200 breast | 103 |
| 136 | 100 fly | 131 |
| 92 | 200 fly | 109 |
| 106 | 200 IM | 131 |
| 80 | 400 IM | 93 |
Looking exclusively at Wave II, the women’s 50 free has the most qualifiers at 54, followed by the men’s 50 free and women’s 100 back with 52.
The men’s 400 IM brings up the rear with 43 qualifiers.
Olympic Trials Qualifiers, Wave II Only
| Male Qualifiers | Event | Female Qualifiers |
| 52 | 50 free | 54 |
| 46 | 100 free | 51 |
| 50 | 200 free | 49 |
| 45 | 400 free | 47 |
| 50 | 800 free | 47 |
| 44 | 1500 free | 45 |
| 50 | 100 back | 52 |
| 44 | 200 back | 47 |
| 50 | 100 breast | 50 |
| 45 | 200 breast | 45 |
| 47 | 100 fly | 49 |
| 49 | 200 fly | 46 |
| 50 | 200 IM | 46 |
| 43 | 400 IM | 49 |
Number of Cuts
Hali Flickinger, the favorite in the women’s 200 butterfly, proves to be the most versatile top tier swimmer of the bunch with nine Wave II Trials cuts, followed by Madisyn Cox, Regan Smith and Michael Andrew with eight.
Flickinger has achieved the standard in the women’s 200/400/800 free, 100/200 back, 100/200 fly, and 200/400 IM.
Most Cuts, Wave II
| Rank | Swimmer | Wave II Cuts |
| 1 | Hali Flickinger | 9 |
| T-2 | Madisyn Cox | 8 |
| T-2 | Regan Smith | 8 |
| T-4 | Michael Andrew | 7 |
| T-4 | Alex Walsh | 7 |
| T-4 | Melanie Margalis | 7 |
| T-4 | Caeleb Dressel | 7 |
| T-4 | Kieran Smith | 7 |
| T-4 | Katie Ledecky | 7 |
| T-4 | Katie McLaughlin | 7 |
Including both waves, the swimmer with the most Trials cuts is 16-year-old Bella Sims, who swims for the Sandpipers of Nevada, with 11 cuts. Four of those cuts are also under the Wave II standard, so Sims will be swimming next week in the 200, 400, 800 and 1500 free events.
Most Cuts, Overall
| Rank | Swimmer | Cuts (Both Waves) |
| 1 | Bella Sims | 11 |
| T-2 | Hali Flickinger | 9 |
| T-2 | Alex Walsh | 9 |
| T-2 | Justina Kozan | 9 |
| T-2 | Chase Kalisz | 9 |
| T-6 | Madisyn Cox | 8 |
| T-6 | Regan Smith | 8 |
| T-6 | Kieran Smith | 8 |
| T-6 | Melanie Margalis | 8 |
| T-6 | Jay Litherland | 8 |
| T-6 | Andrew Seliskar | 8 |
| T-6 | Andrew Abruzzo | 8 |
Number of Top Seeds
No surprise here – Katie Ledecky leads the charge with the top seed in four events: women’s 200, 400, 800 and 1500 free.
Caeleb Dressel owns three, all the events in which he is the reigning world champion (men’s 50 free, 100 free, 100 fly), and four more swimmers own two.
| Swimmer | #1 Seeds |
| Katie Ledecky | 4 |
| Caeleb Dressel | 3 |
| Ryan Murphy | 2 |
| Simone Manuel | 2 |
| Bobby Finke | 2 |
| Regan Smith | 2 |
CLOSE & NOT-SO-CLOSE RACES
Going off of percentages, the men’s 50 free is the most lopsided event on the Wave II program, with Dressel’s 21.04 entry 2.76% better than #2 Michael Andrew (21.62).
Ledecky’s 1500 free, Regan Smith‘s 200 back and Dressel’s 100 fly are next three highest.
- 2.76% – Caeleb Dressel (21.04) over Michael Andrew (21.62) in M 50 Free
- 2.66% – Katie Ledecky (15:29.51) over Ashley Twithell (15:54.19) in W 1500 Free
- 2.52% – Regan Smith (2:03.35) over Kathleen Baker (2:06.46) in W 200 Back
- 2.38% – Dressel (49.50) over Maxime Rooney (50.68) in M 100 Fly
The four closest races are all 200s, led by the men’s 200 IM where Chase Kalisz‘s .05 lead on Andrew works out to just 0.04%.
- 0.04% – Chase Kalisz (1:56.78) over Michael Andrew (1:56.83) in M 200 IM
- 0.12% – Will Licon (2:07.62) over Andrew Wilson (2:07.77) in M 200 Breast
- 0.19% – Madisyn Cox (2:08.51) over Kathleen Baker (2:08.75) in W 200 IM
- 0.20% – Andrew Seliskar (1:45.71) over Townley Haas (1:45.92) in M 200 Free
Qualifiers Per LSC
Looking at the qualifiers per USA Swimming LSC (Local Swimming Committees & Zones), North Carolina (NC) has the most qualified swims overall with 249, followed closely by Pacific Swimming (PC) with 243.
PC leads Wave II with 129.
LSC Qualified Swims, Overall
- North Carolina, 249
- Pacific Swimming, 243
- Southern California Swimming, 210
- Southeastern Swimming, 203
- Georgia Swimming, 177
LSC Qualified Swims, Wave II
- Pacific Swimming, 129
- North Carolina, 118
- Southeastern Swimming / Southern California Swimming, 93
- –
- Georgia Swimming, 87
wait- did Kayla Han qualify for the trials? in what event/s did she qualify for. she is so fast for 12!
400 IM. She won the B final on Saturday in 4:51.08.
Number of athletes by LSC is an interesting stat. With powerhouse D-I programs in North Carolina and Pacific Swimming, it would be interesting to see a breakdown of the athletes by their age group LSC-affiliation. Pacific, for one, would not show out this well without CAL and Stanford (and their associated post grad programs) boosting the numbers
It would be interesting…but would be a terrible task to do.
Once USA Swimming sets up their API, it might be possible depending on how robust it is by comparing to LSC affiliation of the same athlete at age 18. But for now…it would be a level of effort that would far exceed its value.
For a sport that relies on data so heavily…the sport really doesn’t make data easy :-(.
Also—any chance you could post the list of wave 2 qualifiers in each event?
Well someone is salty that they aren’t tik tok famous or good at swimming. Might want to try a new hobby, clearly you aren’t good at it🥰
I thought I was on Twitter for a moment…..
I think USA Swimming really nailed the sweet spot with the # of Wave II participants in each event. 6-8 heats of 8 lanes each seems about perfect–hopefully not too overcrowded for the participants for warming up and down, and still deep enough that there’s sufficient competition to get into semis.
I know that it would be tougher to pinpoint these times in advance in 2024, since you have to set cuts in 2022 or something like that. But, I wouldn’t mind seeing USA Swimming try to do something like they did this year again–say, around January 2024, figure out where the 40th place qualifier is in each event, and say that you have to hit that time to… Read more »
They usually swim 10 Lanes. Not sure about this year
I disagree. To me, one of the key things in the motivation and excitement of qualifying for Olympic Trials is the opportunity to swim in the same meet and pool as the best of the best in the sport, and to experience the atmosphere and huge crowds of the event. Granted, I haven’t seen the Wave I meet yet, so it’s hard to judge what the atmosphere and competition will be like, but from the psych sheets and the number of qualifiers choosing not to attend, it doesn’t seem like it will have the typical atmosphere associated with Trials. Also, many of the younger swimmers will not get the experience of a true Trials this year. If I had qualified… Read more »
uhhhh the usa women have a legit gold medal shot in almost every event so you’re definitely wrong
Someone sure has an axe to grind with TikTok lolol