2017 M. Pac-12 Up/Down: Cal, Stanford Neck-and-Neck into Final Session


Down 65 points to arch-rival Stanford heading into the final morning session, the Cal Bears came to play, putting a whopping 12 swimmers in the A-final, doubling the Cardinal.  After Stanford put 2 up / 2 down in the 200 backstroke, Cal finished off the session by putting four swimmers up in both the 200 breast and 200 fly.

Looking at our base point projections, Cal looks like they’ll have somewhere between a 10-30 point lead tonight before accounting for the 1650 or 400 freestyle relay.  In a deeper meet, Stanford would have an enormous edge in the 1650; True Sweetser, Grant Shoults, and Liam Egan have all been under 14:55 this season, and will very likely all finish in the top five tonight.  However, the Bears have two swimmers of their own in the field (Ryan Kao and Ken Takahashi) who have performed very well this weekend, and will both likely jump into the top 10 in this thinner field.  Interestingly, Cal freshman distance stud Nick Norman is exhibitioned tonight, and has not competed all weekend.

Assuming top five finishes from Stanford’s trio, Cal will need Kao and Takahashi to earn a combined 15-20 points to keep pace heading into the finals relay.

Note: Ups refer to swimmers in the A final, who can finish no lower than 8th barring a DQ; Downs refer to swimmers in the B final, who can finish no higher than 9th and no lower than 16th (again, barring a DQ on the low end).

For our “prelims point estimate”, we project the estimated points based on the average score that will be earned by a swimmer in each final, rather than the actual prelims placing.

(Ups/Downs) 200 back 100 free 200 breast 200 fly Total Prelims point estimate Current point total* TOTAL point estimate+
Cal 2/0/0 2/3/0 4/1/0 4/0/0 12/4/0 195.50 523 718.5
Stanford 2/2/0 1/0/0 1/1/0 2/1/0 6/4/0 107.00 588 695
USC 1/1/0 2/2/0 2/2/0 0/4/0 5/9/0 115.38 494 609.38
Arizona State 1/1/0 2/1/0 1/2/0 1/0/0 5/4/0 92.25 373 465.25
Arizona 1/2/0 1/1/0 0/1/0 1/2/0 3/6/0 72.00 246 318
Utah 1/2/0 0/1/0 0/1/0 0/1/0 1/5/0 37.88 167 204.88

*ALL diving events have already concluded, so total scores include last night’s relays and ALL diving events.

+Does not include tonight’s relay

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About Morgan Priestley

Morgan Priestley

A Stanford University and Birmingham, Michigan native, Morgan Priestley started writing for SwimSwam in February 2013 on a whim, and is loving that his tendency to follow and over-analyze swim results can finally be put to good use. Morgan swam competitively for 15+ years, primarily excelling in the mid-distance freestyles. While …

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