2016 Women’s NCAA Championships: Day 4 Up/Downs

For those unfamiliar with the terminology: “Up” means a swimmer who is in the A-final, as those swimmers cannot fall lower than 8th barring a DQ. “Down” will mean B-finalists, who are between 9th-16th place.

Note: Diving is expected to be completed by 3PM Eastern Time. We will update these up/downs then. These Up/Downs also don’t reflect the 1650, which will be swum this afternoon and in finals.

This year, we’re introducing a new angle on our traditional up/down rankings: and that’s the idea of “burned swims.” Basically, this will keep a tally of the number of swims that a team took (including scratches and DFS) to get to that number of up/downs. This is relevant because, for example, while Cal and Stanford didn’t have any finalists in the 500 free, they also only had one swimmer entered between the two of them.

This metric will help identify where teams are expecting surges in scoring and smooth-out the curves from particularly weak or strong events from a team. We’ll focus on tracking burned swims from the top 12 teams – on Friday, that means the top 12 teams based on psych sheet scoring .

Below, we’ve split out projections and actual results for each event, then at the end is a summary with just the core that you need to know. Scroll all the way down for that summary.

200 BACK:

Georgia will grab more points than expected in this event, with Kylie Stewart earning a place in the A final tonight. Both Cal and Stanford had a swimmer drop from their top 8 seed into the B final, but Cal still has Amy Bilquist in the top 8.

Score After Day 3 200 Back Projected 200 Back
Georgia 285 0/1. 1/0.
Cal 267.5 2/1. 1/2.
Stanford 265 1/1. 0/2.
Texas A&M 201.5 1/0. 1/0.
Virginia 196 1/1. 1/2.
Louisville 176
USC 156.5
Indiana 153 0/1. 1/0.
Missouri 106 0/1.
Arizona 106
NC State 95 1/0. 1/0.
Tennessee 79
Michigan 74 0/1. 1/0.
Ohio State 69
UCLA 66
Texas 53 1/0. 0/1.
Nevada 49
UNC 47 0/1. 0
Florida 35.5 0/1. 0
Minnesota 33
Wisconsin 33
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32
Alabama 20
Kentucky 20 1/0. 1/0.
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13
Kansas 11
Auburn 10
Denver 10
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6
SMU 6
Air Force 4
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3
UMBC 2
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1

100 FREE:

The Trojans will pick up big points in this one. They got both Kasia Wilk and Anika Apostalon into the final. Georgia, Cal, and Stanford each have one in the final. Farida Osman, Lia Neal, and Olivia Smoliga will compete in one of the most anticipated races of the night.

Score After Day 3 100 Free Projected 100 Free
Georgia 285 1/0. 1/0.
Cal 267.5 1/1. 1/1.
Stanford 265 1/0. 1/0.
Texas A&M 201.5 1/0. 1/0.
Virginia 196
Louisville 176
USC 156.5 1/1. 2/0.
Indiana 153
Missouri 106
Arizona 106
NC State 95 0/1. 0
Tennessee 79 0/2. 0/2.
Michigan 74 1/1. 1/1.
Ohio State 69 1/0. 0
UCLA 66 0/1. 0
Texas 53 0/1. 0/1.
Nevada 49
UNC 47
Florida 35.5 1/0. 1/0.
Minnesota 33
Wisconsin 33 0/1.
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32
Alabama 20
Kentucky 20
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13
Kansas 11
Auburn 10
Denver 10
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6
SMU 6
Air Force 4
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3 0/1.
UMBC 2
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1
Cincinatti 0 0/1.

200 BREAST:

Georgia wasn’t expected to get any points in this event based on the psych sheet, but they’ll get a boost thanks to Annie Zhu, who made it back in the top 8. Texas A&M also improved on their projection, getting both Bethany Galat and Esther Gonzalez into the final.

Score After Day 3 200 Breast Projected 200 Breast
Georgia 285 0 1/0.
Cal 267.5
Stanford 265 0/1. 1/0.
Texas A&M 201.5 0/3. 2/0.
Virginia 196 1/0. 0/1.
Louisville 176 1/0.
USC 156.5 1/0. 1/0.
Indiana 153 2/0. 2/0.
Missouri 106 1/0. 0/2.
Arizona 106 0 0/1.
NC State 95
Tennessee 79
Michigan 74
Ohio State 69
UCLA 66
Texas 53 0/1. 0
Nevada 49
UNC 47
Florida 35.5
Minnesota 33
Wisconsin 33
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32 1/0. 0/1.
Alabama 20 0/1. 0
Kentucky 20
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13 0 0/1.
Kansas 11
Auburn 10 0 0/1.
Denver 10 0/1. 0
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6 0/1. 0/1.
SMU 6
Air Force 4
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3
UMBC 2 1/0. 1/0.
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1

200 FLY:

Georgia and Cal each have 2 up in this race, so they’ll be fighting to get their hands on the wall first to outscore each other. Stanford will have Ella Eastin, who will battle with UGA’s Hali Flickinger and Louisville’s Kelsi Worrell for the title.

Score After Day 3 200 Fly Projected 200 Fly
Georgia 285 2/0. 2/0.
Cal 267.5 2/0. 2/0.
Stanford 265 1/1. 1/1.
Texas A&M 201.5 1/0. 1/0.
Virginia 196 0/1. 0/1.
Louisville 176 1/1. 1/0.
USC 156.5 0/1. 0/1
Indiana 153 0/1. 0/2.
Missouri 106 0/1.
Arizona 106
NC State 95
Tennessee 79 0 0/1.
Michigan 74
Ohio State 69
UCLA 66 0/1. 0
Texas 53
Nevada 49
UNC 47
Florida 35.5 0/1. 0/1.
Minnesota 33
Wisconsin 33
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32
Alabama 20
Kentucky 20
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13
Kansas 11
Auburn 10
Denver 10
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6 0/1. 1/0.
SMU 6
Air Force 4
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3 1/0.
UMBC 2
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1

400 FREE RELAY:

If it comes down to it, Georgia, Cal, and Stanford will all be battling it out in the championship final of this relay with a team NCAA Championship on the line.

Team Score After Day 3 400 FR-R Projected 400 FR-R
Georgia 285 up up
Cal 267.5 up up
Stanford 265 up up
Texas A&M 201.5 down up
Virginia 196 up down
Louisville 176 down up
USC 156.5 up up
Indiana 153
Missouri 106
Arizona 106 down down
NC State 95 up up
Tennessee 79 up up
Michigan 74 down down
Ohio State 69 / down
UCLA 66
Texas 53 down down
Nevada 49
UNC 47 up down
Florida 35.5 down down
Minnesota 33
Wisconsin 33
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32
Alabama 20
Kentucky 20
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13 down down
Kansas 11
Auburn 10
Denver 10
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6
SMU 6
Air Force 4
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3
UMBC 2
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1
Boise St 0 down /

TOTAL:

We have an extremely close 3 team battle set up for the final night at the 2016 Women’s NCAA Championships. Cal, Stanford, and Georgia will fight to see who comes out on top. Georgia and Texas A&M have the most A finalists, with 5 ups each. Cal, however, has more finals swims overall with 4 ups and 3 downs. The Stanford Cardinal has 3 up and 3 down. The final scores will also depend heavily on the 1650 and platform diving.

Sorted by team score:

Score After Day 3 Individual Up/Downs Relay 1650 Projections
Georgia 285 5/0. up 1/0.
Cal 267.5 4/3. up
Stanford 265 3/3. up
Texas A&M 201.5 5/0. up
Virginia 196 1/4. down 1/0.
Louisville 176 1/0. up
USC 156.5 3/1. up 1/0.
Indiana 153 3/2. 0/1.
Missouri 106 0/4.
Arizona 106 0/1. down
NC State 95 1/0. up 1/1.
Tennessee 79 0/3. up
Michigan 74 2/1. down 2/0.
Ohio State 69 down 1/0.
UCLA 66
Texas 53 0/2. down
Nevada 49
UNC 47 down
Florida 35.5 1/1. down 1/0.
Minnesota 33 0/1.
Wisconsin 33 0/1. 0/1.
Miami (OH) 33
Purdue 32 0/1. 0/1.
Alabama 20
Kentucky 20 1/0.
South Carolina 17
Penn St 13 0/1. down 0/1.
Kansas 11
Auburn 10 0/1.
Denver 10
Iowa 9
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Miami (FL) 6
Virginia Tech 6 1/1.
SMU 6
Air Force 4 0/1.
Hawaii 4
Pittsburgh 4
EMU 3
LSU 3 0/1.
UMBC 2 1/0.
Rutgers 1
FGCU 1
Oregon State 0 / 0/1.
Cincinatti 0 0/1.

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1 Comment on "2016 Women’s NCAA Championships: Day 4 Up/Downs"

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Cynthia mae Curran

Probably, Georgia wins because of the 1650 unless Stanford goes really good at Platform diving.

About Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh is a former NCAA swimmer at the University of Arizona and the University of Florida. She got her M.S. in Criminology from Florida State and seems exceptionally confused about which team she should cheer for during the college football season. Lauren is currently working on her M.A. in …

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