2016 Women’s NCAA Championships: Day 3 Up/Downs

For those unfamiliar with the terminology: “Up” means a swimmer who is in the A-final, as those swimmers cannot fall lower than 8th barring a DQ. “Down” will mean B-finalists, who are between 9th-16th place.

Note: Diving is expected to be completed by 3PM Eastern Time. We will update these up/downs then.

This year, we’re introducing a new angle on our traditional up/down rankings: and that’s the idea of “burned swims.” Basically, this will keep a tally of the number of swims that a team took (including scratches and DFS) to get to that number of up/downs. This is relevant because, for example, while Cal and Stanford didn’t have any finalists in the 500 free, they also only had one swimmer entered between the two of them.

This metric will help identify where teams are expecting surges in scoring and smooth-out the curves from particularly weak or strong events from a team. We’ll focus on tracking burned swims from the top 12 teams – on Thursday, that means the top 12 teams based on psych sheet scoring .

Below, we’ve split out projections and actual results for each event, then at the end is a summary with just the core that you need to know. Scroll all the way down for that summary.

400 IM:

Texas A&M will get big points in this race. The Aggies make up almost half of the A final, and qualified all 3 of their swimmers into the top 8.

Team Score After Day 2 400 IM Projected 400 IM Burned Swims
Georgia 174 1/0 1/1.  3
Cal 144.5 1/0 0/1  2
USC 121.5  0  0  0
Virginia 118 0/1  0  1
Texas A&M 110.5 3/0 3/0  3
Stanford 110  0 1/0  2
Louisville 94  0  0  1
Arizona 71  0  0  0
Indiana 66  0  0  1
NC State 66 0/1 0/1  1
Tennessee 54 0/2 0/2  4
Michigan 54  0  0  1
Ohio State 42 1/0 1/0
Missouri 40
Texas 39 1/0 0/1
UCLA 37
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25
UNC 22
Florida 19.5
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10
Alabama 8 0/1 0/1
Purdue 8
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6
Virginia Tech 6 0/1
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3 0/1
Minnesota 2 0/1 1/0
Kansas 0 0 1/0

100 FLY:

Cal got a trio of swimmers into the A final of this event, with Rachel Bootsma moving up from her seed to make the top 8. The Golden Bears will look to close the gap on the Georgia Bulldogs, who have one A finalist in this race.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Fly Projected 100 Fly Burned Swims
Georgia 174 0/1 1/0  2
Cal 144.5 2/1. 3/0  3
USC 121.5 1/0 0/1  4
Virginia 118  0  0  2
Texas A&M 110.5 1/1. 1/1.  3
Stanford 110 1/0 1/1.  2
Louisville 94 1/0 1/0  1
Arizona 71 0/1 0/1  2
Indiana 66 0 0/1  1
NC State 66 0/1 0/1  2
Tennessee 54 1/0 0/1  4
Michigan 54  0  0  0
Ohio State 42 0/1 0
Missouri 40
Texas 39
UCLA 37
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25
UNC 22 1/0 1/0
Florida 19.5 0/1 0
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10
Alabama 8
Purdue 8
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6
Virginia Tech 6
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3
Minnesota 2
SMU 0 0/1 0/1

200 FREE:

Georgia has 2 A finalists and a B finalist in this event, where Cal only has Liz Pelton in the B final. The Bulldogs have an opportunity to pull ahead again here on the strength of Brittany MacLean and Hali Flickinger, who have a good chance to go 1-2 in the event.

Indiana has 2 swimmers, Kennedy Goss and Haley Lips, in the top 8. That gives the Hoosiers a chance to bump themselves further up in the top 10.

Team Score After Day 2 200 Free Projected 200 Free Burned Swims
Georgia 174 2/1. 2/1.  5
Cal 144.5 0/1. 0/1  2
USC 121.5 1/2. 0/1  5
Virginia 118 1/0 1/1.  4
Texas A&M 110.5 0 0/1  2
Stanford 110 1/0 1/0  2
Louisville 94 1/0 1/0  2
Arizona 71  0  0  2
Indiana 66 0/1 2/0  2
NC State 66 0/1 0/1  1
Tennessee 54  0  0  1
Michigan 54 1/0 1/0  3
Ohio State 42
Missouri 40
Texas 39
UCLA 37
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25
UNC 22
Florida 19.5
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10
Alabama 8
Purdue 8 0/1 0
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6 0/1 0/1
Virginia Tech 6
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3
Minnesota 2 0/1

100 BREAST:

Indiana will once again have 2 A finalists, with Lilly King and Miranda Tucker racing in the 100 breaststroke. That gives Indiana a chance to enter the top 5 team battle.

Missouri will also have a chance to grab big points here, with Abby Duncan and Katharine Ross both in the top 8. Mizzou is in 14th right now, but some of the teams ahead of them don’t have any A finalists, or have just 1 total championship finalists on the night. They could shake up the top 10.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Breast Projected 100 Breast Burned Swims
Georgia 174  0  0  1
Cal 144.5  0  0  1
USC 121.5 0/1 0/1  1
Virginia 118 1/0 1/0  1
Texas A&M 110.5 0/1 0  3
Stanford 110 1/0 1/0  1
Louisville 94 1/0 1/0  1
Arizona 71  0  0  1
Indiana 66 2/0 2/0  2
NC State 66  0  0  1
Tennessee 54  0  0  0
Michigan 54  0  0  1
Ohio State 42
Missouri 40 2/0 2/0
Texas 39 0 0/1
UCLA 37
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25
UNC 22
Florida 19.5
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10
Alabama 8 0/1 0/1
Purdue 8 0/1 1/0
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6
Virginia Tech 6
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3
Minnesota 2
Auburn 0 0/1 0/2
UMBC 0 0 0/1
Iowa 0 0/1 0/1
EMU 0 0/1 0/1

100 BACK:

Cal and Stanford each have 2 in the top 8 of the 100 back. Kathleen Baker didn’t match her seed, but still has a chance to score for the Golden Bears in the A final.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Back Projected 100 Back Burned Swims
Georgia 174 1/1. 0/2  2
Cal 144.5 3/0 2/1.  4
USC 121.5  0  0  4
Virginia 118 1/0 1/0  1
Texas A&M 110.5  0  0  2
Stanford 110 2/0 2/0  3
Louisville 94  0  0  1
Arizona 71  0  0  3
Indiana 66  0  0  1
NC State 66 0/1 1/0  2
Tennessee 54 1/0 1/0  2
Michigan 54 0/1 0/1  3
Ohio State 42
Missouri 40 0 1/1.
Texas 39 0/1 0
UCLA 37 0/1 0/1
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25
UNC 22 0/1 0
Florida 19.5
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10 0/1 0/1
Alabama 8
Purdue 8
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6
Virginia Tech 6
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3
Minnesota 2
FGCU 0 0/1 0/1

200 MEDLEY RELAY:

Stanford enters this race as the American Record holder with their time from 2016 Pac-12s, but the 200 medley relay will be packed with tough competition. Several teams will battle it out to see who can get to the wall first and bring in the most points.

Team Score After Day 2 200 MR Prjection 200 MR
Georgia 174 Down Up
Cal 144.5 Up Up
USC 121.5 Up Down
Virginia 118 Up Up
Texas A&M 110.5 Up Up
Stanford 110 Up Up
Louisville 94 Up Up
Arizona 71 Down Up
Indiana 66 Up Down
NC State 66 Down Down
Tennessee 54 Up Down
Michigan 54
Ohio State 42 Down
Missouri 40 Down Up
Texas 39 Down Down
UCLA 37
Nevada 29
Wisconsin 25 Down
UNC 22 Down Down
Florida 19.5
South Carolina 17
Miami (OH) 16
Kentucky 10
Alabama 8 Down
Purdue 8
Nebraska-Lincoln 7
Penn St 6
Virginia Tech 6
Hawaii 4
Air Force 4
Denver 3
Minnesota 2
FGCU 0

SUMMARY:

As we head into day 3 finals, Georgia leads the team race with 174 points. Cal (144.5), USC (121.5), Virginia (110.5), and Texas A&M (110) make up the rest of the top 5, but we could see quite a few shifts in the team battle tonight.

The USC Trojans, who currently sit 3rd, will have a hard time maintaining their position. USC doesn’t have any championships finalists, but will bring 3 consolation finalists and a relay back to B finals.

Stanford leads the teams in number of A finalists. The Cardinal has 6 ups, 1 down, and they’re in the final of the 200 medley relay. They’re looking to bounce back after a tough DQ in the 200 free relay last night, and have set themselves up well to get back into the top 3.

Cal has 5 ups, ahead of Georgia, Texas A&M, and Indiana, who each have 4 ups. That could give the Golden Bears a boost towards catching up to Georgia in the team rankings, but the Bulldogs should be able to hold on to the lead if they hold their own.

Sorted by Ups then Downs:

Team Current Score Individual Up/Downs Relay Total Burned Swims (For the Current Top 12)
Stanford 110 6/1. Up 10
Cal 144.5 5/3. Up 12
Georgia 174 4/4. Up 13
Texas A&M 110.5 4/2. Up 13
Indiana 66 4/1. Down 7
Virginia 118 3/1. Up 9
Missouri 40 3/1. Up
Louisville 94 3/0. Up 6
Tennessee 54 1/3. Down 11
NC State 66 1/2. Down 7
Ohio State 42 1/0. Down
UNC 22 1/0. Down
Michigan 54 1/1. 8
Minnesota 2 1/1.
Kansas 0 1/0.
Purdue 8 1/0.
Arizona 71 0/1. Up 8
USC 121.5 0/3. Down 14
Texas 39 0/2. Down
Alabama 8 0/2.
Auburn 0 0/2.
UCLA 37 0/1.
Penn St 6 0/1.
Virginia Tech 6 0/1.
Denver 3 0/1.
SMU 0 0/1.
UMBC 0 0/1.
Iowa 0 0/1.
EMU 0 0/1.
FGCU 0 0/1.
Kentucky 10 0/1.
Wisconsin 25 0 Down
Florida 19.5 0
South Carolina 17 0
Miami (OH) 16 0
Nebraska-Lincoln 7 0
Hawaii 4 0
Air Force 4 0

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1 Comment on "2016 Women’s NCAA Championships: Day 3 Up/Downs"

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The Grand Inquisitor

Plus…Stanford 1/0 in 3m board, UGA 0/1 – scores of top 3 teams could all be within 20 pts at the end of night

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About Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh is a former NCAA swimmer at the University of Arizona and the University of Florida. She got her M.S. in Criminology from Florida State and seems exceptionally confused about which team she should cheer for during the college football season. Lauren is currently working on her M.A. in …

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