Scoring Vs. Psych Sheet: 2016 Women’s NCAA Championships

A big thanks to Price Fishback, who compiles all this data for us as the meet goes on. Stay tuned for ongoing similar analysis form the men’s NCAA meet thisweek.

2016 WOMEN’S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS

Now that the women’s NCAA Championships are wrapped up, it’s time to look back at our daily tallying of psych sheet scores and projected scores to see which teams outperformed their seeds.

It’s no surprise that Georgia was one of the bigger movers and shakers of the meet, gaining 121 swimming points from seeds to jump from a distant fourth to the national title.

We’ve got the full numbers below, but here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers of the meet, compared to seeds. (Note: these figures don’t include diving).

Most Points Scored Above Seeds

  1. Georgia +121
  2. Missouri +64
  3. Texas A&M +40
  4. T-4 Arizona +39
  5. T-4 Wisconsin +39
  6. Indiana +27
  7. Minnesota +26
  8. Penn State +17
  9. Kentucky +15
  10. T-10 Harvard +11
  11. T-10 Kansas +11

Interestingly, 4 teams on that list came out of the SEC, and 4 out of the Big Ten.

Biggest Drop From Seeds To Final Score

  1. Texas -63
  2. Tennessee -50
  3. Virginia – 49
  4. California -40
  5. NC State -37
  6. Stanford -35
  7. Florida -32.5
  8. UNC -24
  9. Purdue -22
  10. Boise State -20

This list is much more spread out by conference. A few of these teams are also pretty drastically affected by one or two major happenings. Stanford’s 200 free relay DQ is one example – the Cardinal would be at +5 had they kept that relay legal. Texas also lost some big points from seeds with Tasija Karosas scratching out of the 100 back and swimming a bit rough in prelims of the 200 back.

 

Here’s the full chart comparing psych sheet scores to actual final scores.

The “+/-” category on the end tracks swimming points compared to the psych sheet scores, which only include swimming events. The column in the middle tracks pure scoring from psych sheet to final scores, including diving.

Rank TEAM Final Team Score Psych Sheet Prediction Change From Psych Scores (including diving) Diving Score +/- Swimming Points Only
1 Georgia 414 279 135 14 121
2 Stanford 395 374 21 56 -35
3 California 358 398 -40 -40
4 Texas A&M 309 262 47 7 40
5 Virginia 264 313 -49 -49
6 USC 244.5 264 -19.5 -19.5
7 Indiana 228 190 38 11 27
8 Louisville 220 227 -7 -7
9 NC State 155 192 -37 -37
10 Michigan 150 157 -7 -7
11 Missouri 139 63 76 12 64
12 Arizona 120 81 39 39
13 Tennessee 111 158 -47 3 -50
14 Ohio State 84 94 -10 -10
15 Texas 79 142 -63 -63
16 Minnesota 70 4 66 40 26
17 UCLA 68 20 48 55 -7
18 UNC 66 72 -6 18 -24
19 Florida 63.5 67 -3.5 29 -32.5
20 Nevada 56 0 56 56 0
21 Wisconsin 49 10 39 39
22 Kentucky 40 14 26 11 15
23 Purdue 35 39 -4 18 -22
24 Miami (OH) 33 0 33 33 0
25 Penn State 23 6 17 17
25 Virginia Tech 23 20 3 3
27 LSU 21 15 6 17 -11
28 Alabama 20 14 6 6
29 UMBC 18 17 1 1
29 South Carolina 18 0 18 18 0
31 Arizona State 16 0 16 16 0
32 Northwestern 15 0 15 15 0
33 Auburn 14 7 7 7
34 Harvard 11 0 11 11
34 Kansas 11 0 11 11
34 Air Force 11 9 2 2
37 Denver 10 3 7 7
38 Ioa 9 9 0 0
39 Nebraska 7 0 7 7 0
40 Miami (FL) 6 0 6 6 0
40 SMU 6 6 0 0
42 Hawaii 4 0 4 4 0
42 Pittsburgh 4 0 4 4 0
44 Eastern Michigan 3 3 0 0
44 Wyoming 3 0 0 3 0
46 Cincinnatti 2 12 2 -10
47 Rutgers 1 0 1 1 0
47 Florida Gulf Coast 1 3 -2 -2
49 Oregon State 0 1 -1 -1
49 Boise State 0 20 -20 -20

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korn

Thanks Jared. Very interesting. This is proof why you swim the meet and not give out trophies for psych sheet points!

Swimfan

Ditto

spectatorN

And thanks to Prof Fishback! He is a wonderful teacher. I was not aware of his interest in swimming.

ct swim fan

Some though not all of the +/- movement is probably a direct result of how much a team did/didn’t rest for their conference meets. Although, if you believe the hype during said conference meets, many people did not rest/shave etc. and still got their NCAA berths.

SwimFanMan

Missouri Tigers are getting it done! They are doing some very impressive things over there in Columbia, MO.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson just can’t stay away from the pool. A competitive career of almost two decades wasn’t enough for this Minnesotan, who continues to get his daily chlorine fix. A lifelong lover of writing, Jared now combines the two passions as Senior Reporter for SwimSwam.com, covering swimming at every level. He’s an …

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