2016 Men’s NCAA Championships: Cal +62 In Day 2 Scoring Projections


After a big morning, California projects to score 62 more points than their seeds would have by the end of day 2, but the top three programs are all outscoring their original projections.

Cal is at +62 in comparing their projected psych sheet scores to this point to the combination of last night’s 800 free relay results and the projected points from this morning’s prelims session.

Texas doesn’t have a ton of reason to worry, though – they’re actually +5 in that measure despite defending 500 free champ Clark Smith dropping from 1st in that event (20 points) to outside the A and B finals (for zero total points).

NC State is also up – despite moving down in the 800 free relay (a -6 for the day), they sit at +11.

Keep in mind: these projections do not include diving.

Thanks to Price Fishback for running the numbers on projected psych sheet scoring.

Day 1 Day 2 Days 1-2
Psych Sheet Projection Actual Score +/- Psych Sheet Projection Post-prelims Projections +/- Total +/-
Texas 32 40 8 128 133 5 13
NC State 40 34 -6 112 123 11 5
California 22 30 8 52 106 54 62
Florida 34 32 -2 149 126 -23 -25
Auburn 26 22 -4 93 46 -47 -51
Michigan 28 26 -2 95 82 -13 -15
Indiana 24 14 -10 59 45 -14 -24
Georgia 14 28 14 24 48 24 38
Alabama 2 2 0 65 59 -6 -6
Louisville 30 24 -6 33 42 9 3


For the sake of brevity, we’ve focused in on the top 10 teams in this chart. SEC powers Auburn and Florida are taking a bit of a tumble, while Texas, Cal and NC State have started to pull away.

Based on Commit Swimming’s scoring projections, here’s where each team is projected to finish the meet on Saturday night, taking into account last night’s 800 free relay and this morning’s prelims:

Projected Final Scores (not including diving):

  1. Texas – 421
  2. NC State – 385
  3. California – 340
  4. Florida – 297
  5. Auburn – 245
  6. Michigan – 207
  7. Indiana – 198
  8. Georgia – 185
  9. Alabama – 174
  10. Louisville – 159

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5 years ago

Cal will still finish second, but it will be closer between them and NC State than I think many predicted. Cal is just too deep in the strokes on days 3 and 4.

5 years ago

As a swim fan, NC STATE shocked me! They had a great morning and proving the nation that they can run with the big boys (men).

Take a look at the names on their 800 Fr Relay from last night, none of those guys were no where close to Texas’ or Florida boys coming out of HS. These young coaches know what they are doing and it is great for the sport! Good Luck to them for the rest of the weekend.

Reply to  Swimfan
5 years ago

I think it is awesome that a new team is challenging the old guard!

But, NC state has been coming on for a few years. They almost won the 800 relay last year, just barely getting beat by USC, and they were arguably the favorites in the 200 free relay before they got DQ’d for a false start.

Ryan Held’s sprint times from YCMA nationals his senior year of high school were competitive with any of the Texas sprinter recruits. 19.5 and 43.3. I think there could only have been a handful of recruits in the USA faster than that in 2014. Caleb Dressel, obviously but thats about it. I’ve been impressed, however, in how fast he has gotten (even… Read more »

Reply to  Swimfan
5 years ago

To be fair, half of that relay was on nobody’s recruiting roster, because they’re from Denmark and Lithuania.

Reply to  Swimfan
5 years ago

I don’t think there’s any doubt that NC State’s staff has done an amazing job developing that program. Not bagging on Northwestern when they had Grevers & Co., but they did not build and sustain that level of talent. Does not appear to be the case at NC State.
I also look at Mizzou and Duke as up and coming programs. I hope they continue to bring in great recruiting classes and develop the “raw” talent guys they seem to pick up to fill out the roster.

With the focus on relays I think it’s helped non-traditional power-house programs. Think about it: you’re a top sprinter coming out of HS. You can either go to a deeper program and… Read more »

Reply to  Stoobie
5 years ago

Mizzou has done some ridiculous things the past few years.

Sam Tierney was a backstroker out of high school and they made him into an All-American breaststroker.

Chadwick was a breaststroker and look at him now – one of the best American sprinters right now.

I’ve been a big Mizzou fan since I saw them work firsthand right after they hired Rhodenbaugh.

5 years ago

Prelims for diving just ended and Commit’s projections were updated. Doesn’t look any better for anyone but Texas now with 444…

5 years ago

Please find out why Clark Smith didn’t make finals!!!

Greg Popovich
Reply to  sgriffith99
5 years ago

Traditionally, you have to be one of the fastest 16 swimmers in order to make to finals. He wasn’t in the top 16. 😀

5 years ago

Can we start the yearly bitch session about including diving in the scoring? As a Cal fan, it always is frustrating

Reply to  hambone
5 years ago

Oh please – not again Cal – GO GET SOME DIVERS!

It’s like a football team not getting good kickers – this is a TEAM sport and every position/event is essential. Would you take out the 50 Free because you couldn’t compete in it either?

Reply to  Back2Back
5 years ago

Or kind of like including gymnastics at a track meet.

Reply to  hambone
5 years ago

Yeah, because Texas wouldn’t use the scholarship money tied up with divers to add two more stud swimmers…. Can’t count the number of guys who opted to go somewhere else because Texas didn’t offer them enough money.

Reply to  Back2Back
5 years ago

Except the 50 free is still swimming and not a more or less completely unassociated sport. As I understand it they are only paired up because diving would not survive in the NCAA without piggybacking on swimming. Which I guess if they must, they must. But I’m not sure why they need to score them together, and it’s nonsense that divers only count as a half a swimmer towards the team cap.

Reply to  Back2Back
5 years ago

Personally, I don’t like the two being joined together, but coaches know that diving is included in the scoring and have the ability to recruit and develop diving. If they choose to solely focus their resources on swimming, then they’ll miss out on the points. Similar to how some programs focus on sprints or distance.

Dean Lockwood
Reply to  Dan
5 years ago

Guys, this is oddly one year that Texas doesn’t NEED its divers …

Reply to  hambone
5 years ago

I said it last year: should be an aquatics weekend. Title awarded for swimming team, diving team and water polo team. Then do a combined title based on overall points. I always think about Miami in the 90’s. They placed in the top 10 as a team with only divers, they had done away with their men’s swim program. Unfair for them not to be awarded a team title for diving. While it’s true some college swimmers play water polo – non at this level are scoring point on 3 meter then rocking the second leg of a 200 free relay.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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