2016 M. NCAA Championships: Cal Gets Most Ups, Texas Gets Highest Total for Day 3 Ups/Downs

2016 MEN’S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS

For those unfamiliar with the terminology: “Up” means a swimmer who is in the A-final, as those swimmers cannot fall lower than 8th barring a DQ. “Down” will mean B-finalists, who are between 9th-16th place.

Note: Diving is expected to be completed by 3PM Eastern Time. We will update these up/downs then.

This year, we’re introducing a new angle on our traditional up/down rankings: and that’s the idea of “burned swims.” Basically, this will keep a tally of the number of swims that a team took (including scratches and DFS) to get to that number of up/downs. This is relevant because, for example, while Cal and Stanford didn’t have any finalists in the 500 free at the women’s meet, they also only had one swimmer entered between the two of them.

This metric will help identify where teams are expecting surges in scoring and smooth-out the curves from particularly weak or strong events from a team. We’ll focus on tracking burned swims from the top 12 teams – on Thursday, that means the top 12 teams based on psych sheet scoring .

Below, we’ve split out projections and actual results for each event, then at the end is a summary with just the core that you need to know. Scroll all the way down for that summary.

400 IM:

Cal and Georgia each have 2 championship finalists in this race, but Texas could haul in close to as many points if Will Licon defends as champion and their 2 B-finalists do well in consols.

Team Score After Day 2 400 IM Projected 400 IM Burned Swims
Texas 209 0/2 1/2. 4
Florida 163 0/1 0/1 3
Cal 141 2/1. 2/0 3
NC State 137 2
Michigan 90 1
Missouri 81 0
Tennessee 79 1/0 1
Auburn 72.5 0/1 0/1 1
Georgia 68 2/0 2/0 3
Alabama 68 0
Indiana 62 0
Louisville 60 1/0 1/0 1
Stanford 57.5 2/1. 1/1.
USC 53 0/1 0/1
Ohio St 38
Arizona 28
South Carolina 23 0/1
Wisconsin 23
Miami 14
BYU 12
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11 1/0 0/1
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4 0/1
UNC 2
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0
Duke 0
LSU 0
George Washington 0
Air Force 0
Oakland 0
Iowa 0
Virginia 0

100 FLY:

Texas has by far the highest number of finalists in this event, with 2 ups and 2 downs.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Fly Projected 100 Fly Burned Swims
Texas 209 2/1. 2/2. 7
Florida 163 1/0 1/0 2
Cal 141 1/1. 0/1 2
NC State 137 0
Michigan 90 0/1 1/0 3
Missouri 81 0/1 1
Tennessee 79 0
Auburn 72.5 1/1. 1
Georgia 68 1/0 4
Alabama 68 1/0 3
Indiana 62 1/0 0/1 2
Louisville 60 0/1 0/1 2
Stanford 57.5
USC 53 0/1
Ohio St 38 1/0 1/0
Arizona 28
South Carolina 23
Wisconsin 23
Miami 14
BYU 12
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4
UNC 2 0/1 0/1
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0 0/1 1/0
Duke 0
LSU 0 1/0 0/1
George Washington 0
Air Force 0
Oakland 0
Iowa 0
Virginia 0

200 FREE:

Florida was projected to have just a B-finalist in this event, but they did very well this morning. They’ll bring back 2 swimmers to the top 8, Mitch D’Arrigo and Jan Switkowski, as well as Pawel Werner in the consolation heat.

Team Score After Day 2 200 Free Projected 200 Free Burned Swims
Texas 209 0/2 1/0 2
Florida 163 0/1 2/1. 4
Cal 141 1/0 1/1. 5
NC State 137 3/0 1/2. 3
Michigan 90 1/1. 0/1 3
Missouri 81 2
Tennessee 79 0
Auburn 72.5 0/1 0/1 2
Georgia 68 1/0 1/0 3
Alabama 68 0
Indiana 62 1/1. 1/0 2
Louisville 60 0/1 0/1 2
Stanford 57.5 0/1 0
USC 53 1/0 1/0
Ohio St 38
Arizona 28
South Carolina 23
Wisconsin 23 0 0/1
Miami 14
BYU 12
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4
UNC 2
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0
Duke 0
LSU 0
George Washington 0
Air Force 0
Oakland 0
Iowa 0
Virginia 0

100 BREAST:

Cal is the only top 5 team to bring anyone back to finals in the 100 breast, with Connor Hoppe in the B-final. Indiana was seeded with 2 up, but the Hoosiers dropped both swimmers down into the B-final. We’ll get representation from teams we aren’t used to seeing in the championship final here. George Washington, Oakland, and Air Force each have a swimmer in the top 8.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Breast Projected 100 Breast Burned Swims
Texas 209 0
Florida 163 0
Cal 141 1/0 0/1 2
NC State 137 0/1 0 1
Michigan 90 0
Missouri 81 1/0 1/1. 3
Tennessee 79 0/1 1/0 2
Auburn 72.5 1/0 0/1 1
Georgia 68 1
Alabama 68 0/1 0 2
Indiana 62 2/0 0/2 3
Louisville 60 0/1 1/0 1
Stanford 57.5
USC 53 0/1 0
Ohio St 38
Arizona 28 0/1
South Carolina 23 1/0
Wisconsin 23
Miami 14
BYU 12
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11 1/0 1/0
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4
UNC 2
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0
Duke 0 1/0 0
LSU 0
George Washington 0 0/1 1/0
Air Force 0 1/0 1/0
Oakland 0 1/0
Iowa 0 0/1 0/1
Virginia 0 0/1
FSU 0 0/1 0

100 BACK:

Cal will look to close in on the competition with their backstroke points on the strength of Ryan Murphy and Jacob Pebley.

Team Score After Day 2 100 Back Projected 100 Back Burned Swims
Texas 209 0/1 0/1 2
Florida 163 1/0 0/1 1
Cal 141 1/1. 2/0 4
NC State 137 0/2 1/1. 2
Michigan 90 3
Missouri 81 1
Tennessee 79 0/1 1
Auburn 72.5 1
Georgia 68 1/0 0/1 1
Alabama 68 1/1. 1/1. 3
Indiana 62 1
Louisville 60 1/0 1/0 2
Stanford 57.5
USC 53 1/0 1/0
Ohio St 38 1/0 1/0
Arizona 28 0/1 0/1
South Carolina 23
Wisconsin 23
Miami 14
BYU 12 0/1 1/0
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4
UNC 2 0/1 0
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0
Duke 0
LSU 0 0/1
George Washington 0
Air Force 0
Oakland 0
Iowa 0
Virginia 0
West Virginia 0 1/0 0

200 MEDLEY RELAY:

NC State just missed out on the championship final here, getting 9th in prelims. Both Texas and Cal moved into the top 8.

Team Score After Day 2 200 MR Projected 200 MR
Texas 209 down up
Florida 163 up up
Cal 141 down up
NC State 137 up down
Michigan 90 up down
Missouri 81 down down
Tennessee 79 up up
Auburn 72.5 up up
Georgia 68 up
Alabama 68 up up
Indiana 62 down down
Louisville 60 up up
Stanford 57.5 down down
USC 53 down
Ohio St 38
Arizona 28 up down
South Carolina 23
Wisconsin 23
Miami 14
BYU 12
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4 down
UNC 2 down
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0 0
Duke 0 down down

SUMMARY:

Following day 2, the Longhorns have the lead with 209 points, followed by Florida (163), Cal (141), NC State (137), and Michigan (90). We could see a few shifts in the team placing tonight.

The Golden Bears will bring back the most A-finalists. Cal has 5 ups and 3 downs tonight. However, Texas will bring back the highest number of finalists overall, with 9 total swims. They have 4 in the top 8, and 5 swimmers in consols.

With that, the Longhorns are in a strong position to continue their lead. The battle for 2nd will get interesting though. Cal will try to move past Florida. The Gators have 3 ups and 3 downs to Cal’s 5 and 3. Right now they’re separated by just 22 points.

Sorted by current team score:

Team Score After Day 2 Individual Projected Up/Downs Relay Total Burned Swims
Texas 209 2/5. 4/5. up 15
Florida 163 2/2. 3/3. up 10
Cal 141 6/3. 5/3. up 15
NC State 137 3/3. 2/3. down 8
Michigan 90 1/2. 1/1. down 10
Missouri 81 1/0 1/2. down 7
Tennessee 79 0/1 2/1. up 4
Auburn 72.5 2/2. 0/3 up 6
Georgia 68 4/0 4/1. up 12
Alabama 68 1/2. 2/1. up 8
Indiana 62 4/1. 1/3. down 8
Louisville 60 2/3. 3/2. up 8
Stanford 57.5 2/2. 1/1. down
USC 53 2/3. 2/1.
Ohio St 38 2/0 2/0
Arizona 28 0/1 0/2 down
South Carolina 23 1/1.
Wisconsin 23 0/1
Miami 14
BYU 12 0/1 1/0
Pitt 11
Virginia Tech 11 2/0 1/1.
UNLV 9
Utah 9
Princeton 8
Penn 6
Georgia Tech 5
Minnesota 4 0/1 down
UNC 2 0/2 0/1
Penn St 2
Harvard 2
Texas A&M 1
Cleveland State 0 0/1 1/0
Duke 0 1/0 down
LSU 0 1/0 0/2
George Washington 0 0/1 1/0
Air Force 0 1/0 1/0
Oakland 0 1/0
Iowa 0 0/1 0/1
Virginia 0 0/1

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Hairy

I’m no nerd, but GA has 4/1 not 2/1.

CraigH

I’m not sure I understand what the Burned Swims really tells you about how a team is doing overall. It would be different if every team had the same number of swimmers at the meet, but for example I think back to the Women’s meet. Georgia had like 16 swimmers and Stanford had 9. Obviously, Georgia was going to have a lot more burned swims, but Stanford’s affected the team a lot more. The burned swims should really be a ratio of how many swim burned : number of swimmers at the meet for a given team to really get any use out of it.

Swimming one

Texas also has 1 up in diving

About Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh is a former NCAA swimmer at the University of Arizona and the University of Florida. She got her M.S. in Criminology from Florida State and seems exceptionally confused about which team she should cheer for during the college football season. Lauren is currently a coach at Loggerhead Aquatics …

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