SwimSwam Readers Predict D1 Women’s Nationals

by Andrew Mering 4

March 14th, 2018 College, News

With the NCAA championships starting up today it’s time to review what people’s expectations are for the meet. SwimSwam’s pick’em contest is a solid metric for the opinions of the general swim fan (despite the selection bias issues). Entries are now closed, so we can look at what everyone predicted. For the most part the picks here line up with SwimSwam’s official picks.

Stanford were picked to win by 98% of entries. Cal were picked 2nd by 85% and 3rd by 12%. Texas A&M were picked 2nd by 13% and 3rd by 68% of entries. Things were more contentious below that. Michigan were the favorite pick for 4th with 47%. No one below 4th was picked by more than 35% of entries for a single spot. The complete summary of people’s team picks is in the table below.

There was only one unanimous event, the 1650 where everyone picked Katie Ledecky. There were several others that were close. The 100 breast (Lilly King), the 500 free (Katie Ledecky), 200 fly (Ella Eastin), and 200 back (Kathleen Baker) had favorites with over 97% of picks.

The weakest individual favorite is Kathleen Baker in the 200 IM with 57% picking her to win. 32% had Ella Eastin in that event. The most contentious relay is the 400 free relay. There 59% of picks had Stanford to win, 35% had Cal, and 5% had Virginia. The complete single event picks breakdown is below.

One note: I started writing this before the contest closed. Any entries submitted/edited after 11:00 central today weren’t included in this analysis, but were counted for the actual contest. 383 entries were submitted when I started. The final contest had 423 entries. Even with this incomplete data, the below is a representative sample of people’s picks. If you want to review all the picks (or remember who you picked), I will put up a spreadsheet with everyone’s entries in the daily pick’em score update posts that will start on Thursday.

Team Picks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stanford 97.9% 1.6% 0.3%
California 1.3% 85.1% 12.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Texas A&M 0.5% 12.8% 67.8% 13.7% 1.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
South Carolina 0.3%
Michigan 0.3% 13.7% 47.0% 16.0% 11.9% 5.8% 1.5% 1.5% 0.3%
Virginia 0.3% 0.8% 4.3% 11.5% 7.6% 17.4% 20.9% 17.8% 11.4%
Louisville 1.8% 7.3% 22.1% 24.5% 21.6% 14.4% 4.3% 1.6%
Indiana 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 4.6% 8.2% 13.2% 25.5% 33.8%
Tennessee 1.1% 14.5% 21.5% 22.3% 15.2% 12.6% 5.5% 4.4%
Texas 0.5% 5.1% 8.2% 5.5% 10.4% 16.0% 23.7% 18.0%
NC State 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3%
Southern Cali 3.8% 15.1% 20.2% 18.0% 16.6% 11.4% 6.6%
Georgia 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 2.2% 4.4%
Wisconsin 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 5.0%
Ohio St 0.6% 1.5% 2.5% 8.5%
Auburn 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9%
UNC 0.3%
UCLA 0.3%
Kentucky 1.8% 2.5%
Arizona St 0.3%
Eastern Michigan University 0.3%
University of Missouri 0.3%

Individual Picks

School 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Event
Stanford 83.1% 12% 4.2% 0.3% 800 Free Relay
California 10.7% 58.2% 28.2% 3.4% 800 Free Relay
Michigan 5.9% 26.9% 54.6% 8.4% 800 Free Relay
Virginia 0.3% 1.6% 5% 25.6% 800 Free Relay
Louisville 0.8% 2.6% 19.3% 800 Free Relay
Texas A&M 0.5% 4.7% 38.4% 800 Free Relay
Georgia 0.5% 0.5% 800 Free Relay
Texas 0.3% 3.4% 800 Free Relay
Southern Cali 0.8% 800 Free Relay
California 87.7% 9.4% 2.3% 0.3% 200 Free Relay
Stanford 8.4% 74.2% 12.5% 3.7% 200 Free Relay
Virginia 2.1% 8.1% 43.3% 32.1% 200 Free Relay
Louisville 1.6% 7% 31.6% 34.5% 200 Free Relay
Tennessee 0.3% 0.8% 5.5% 16.7% 200 Free Relay
Ohio St 0.3% 3.7% 9.1% 200 Free Relay
NC State 0.3% 0.8% 200 Free Relay
Michigan 0.8% 1% 200 Free Relay
Texas 0.3% 0.3% 200 Free Relay
Auburn 0.8% 200 Free Relay
Texas A&M 0.3% 200 Free Relay
Minnesota 0.3% 200 Free Relay
Georgia 0.3% 200 Free Relay
Ledecky, Katie Stanford 99.4% 500 Free
Bi, Rose Michigan 0.3% 13.6% 36.8% 26.9% 500 Free
Comerford, Mallory Louisville 0.3% 67.6% 18.8% 6.8% 500 Free
Evans, Joanna Texas 13.1% 20.6% 18.5% 500 Free
Harnish, Courtney Georgia 4.2% 10.7% 20.6% 500 Free
Pitzer, Lauren Stanford 0.5% 2.1% 5.2% 500 Free
Stevens, Leah Stanford 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 500 Free
Drabot, Katie Stanford 0.3% 1.6% 5% 500 Free
Forde, Brooke Stanford 0.3% 1.3% 2.1% 500 Free
Goss, Kennedy Indiana 0.3% 0.5% 1% 500 Free
Moore, Hannah NC State 2.1% 2.3% 500 Free
Ryan, G Michigan 1% 4.4% 500 Free
Rasmus, Claire Texas A&M 1% 0.8% 500 Free
Meitz, Kaersten Purdue 0.8% 3.7% 500 Free
Freriks, Geena Kentucky 0.3% 500 Free
Jacobsen, Kirsten Arizona 0.3% 500 Free
Pfeifer, Evie Texas 0.3% 500 Free
Cox, Hannah Arizona 0.3% 500 Free
Byrnes, Megan Stanford 0.3% 500 Free
Marrkand, Jen Virginia 0.3% 500 Free
Baker, Kathleen California 56.9% 31.1% 11.5% 1% 200 IM
Eastin, Ella Stanford 31.6% 39.7% 19.6% 3.9% 200 IM
Pickrem, Sydney Texas A&M 9.7% 26.9% 54.3% 6% 200 IM
Seidt, Asia Kentucky 1% 0.8% 5.7% 29.2% 200 IM
Small, Meghan Tennessee 0.5% 1.3% 5.2% 22.5% 200 IM
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadette Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 3.4% 23.5% 200 IM
King, Lilly Indiana 0.3% 0.3% 200 IM
Nelson, Beata Wisconsin 6.8% 200 IM
Galat, Bethany Texas A&M 3.7% 200 IM
Andison, Bailey Denver 1.3% 200 IM
Darcel, Sarah California 0.8% 200 IM
Howe, Ally Stanford 0.5% 200 IM
Hansson, Louise Southern Cali 0.3% 200 IM
Szekely, Allie Stanford 0.3% 200 IM
Manuel, Simone Stanford 87.7% 11.2% 1% 50 Free
Weitzeil, Abbey California 8.4% 59% 21.9% 7.8% 50 Free
Brown, Erika Tennessee 2.3% 15.1% 31.3% 30.3% 50 Free
Li, Liz Ohio St 1.6% 13.6% 35.8% 34.7% 50 Free
Baldwin, Caroline UNC 0.8% 3.1% 8.6% 50 Free
Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M 0.3% 1.3% 2.9% 50 Free
Bilquist, Amy California 2.9% 6.5% 50 Free
Cooper, Caitlin Virginia 2.3% 5.7% 50 Free
Tetzloff, Alyssa Auburn 0.3% 0.5% 50 Free
Perry, Ky-lee NC State 1% 50 Free
Murphy, Maddie California 0.8% 50 Free
Millard, Rebecca Texas 0.3% 50 Free
Reed, Laine Virginia 0.3% 50 Free
Banic, Madeline Tennessee 0.3% 50 Free
Nack, Danielle Minnesota 0.3% 50 Free
Stanford 78.9% 20.9% 0.3% 400 Medley Relay
California 21.1% 72.8% 5.2% 0.8% 400 Medley Relay
Indiana 5.2% 74.7% 15.1% 400 Medley Relay
Texas A&M 1% 13.8% 56.1% 400 Medley Relay
Tennessee 3.1% 8.9% 400 Medley Relay
Minnesota 1.3% 9.4% 400 Medley Relay
Texas 1.3% 4.4% 400 Medley Relay
Southern Cali 0.3% 3.7% 400 Medley Relay
Louisville 1% 400 Medley Relay
Michigan 0.3% 400 Medley Relay
Ohio St 0.3% 400 Medley Relay
Ledecky, Katie Stanford 89% 10.4% 0.3% 400 IM
Eastin, Ella Stanford 10.7% 85.1% 3.7% 0.8% 400 IM
Pickrem, Sydney Texas A&M 0.3% 3.7% 81.2% 11.5% 400 IM
Forde, Brooke Stanford 0.5% 9.9% 40.7% 400 IM
Galat, Bethany Texas A&M 0.3% 5% 40.7% 400 IM
Darcel, Sarah California 4.2% 400 IM
Gyorgy, Reka Virginia Tech 1.3% 400 IM
Brady, Sharli University of Missouri 0.3% 400 IM
Szekely, Allie Stanford 0.3% 400 IM
Andison, Bailey Denver 0.3% 400 IM
Brown, Erika Tennessee 71.8% 20.1% 5.5% 1.6% 100 Fly
Hansson, Louise Southern Cali 21.4% 47.3% 22.2% 4.2% 100 Fly
Li, Liz Ohio St 2.3% 16.4% 27.2% 22.7% 100 Fly
Thomas, Noemie California 2.1% 6.5% 19.6% 27.9% 100 Fly
Hu, Janet Stanford 1.6% 6.8% 12.8% 17.2% 100 Fly
McLaughlin, Katie California 0.8% 1.3% 3.1% 6% 100 Fly
Black, Haley Auburn 0.8% 7% 11.7% 100 Fly
Oglesby, Grace Louisville 0.5% 1.6% 6% 100 Fly
Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 100 Fly
Nack, Danielle Minnesota 0.5% 0.3% 100 Fly
Tetzloff, Alyssa Auburn 0.3% 0.8% 100 Fly
Jensen, Christie Indiana 0.5% 100 Fly
Quah, Jing Texas A&M 0.3% 100 Fly
Banic, Madeline Tennessee 0.3% 100 Fly
Rule, Remedy Texas 0.3% 100 Fly
Comerford, Mallory Louisville 72.6% 24.6% 2.6% 0.5% 200 Free
Manuel, Simone Stanford 27.2% 68.1% 4.2% 0.3% 200 Free
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadette Michigan 0.3% 6.8% 73.1% 9.7% 200 Free
Deloof, Gabby Michigan 0.3% 13.1% 45.4% 200 Free
Deloof, Catie Michigan 0.3% 1.3% 9.4% 200 Free
Drabot, Katie Stanford 1% 6.5% 200 Free
Moroney, Megan Virginia 1% 6.3% 200 Free
Raab, Meaghan Georgia 1% 3.4% 200 Free
Neumann, Robin California 1.6% 8.9% 200 Free
Rasmus, Claire Texas A&M 0.3% 3.1% 200 Free
Weitzeil, Abbey California 0.3% 0.5% 200 Free
Padington, Mackenzie Minnesota 0.3% 0.3% 200 Free
Bi, Rose Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 200 Free
Marrkand, Jen Virginia 2.3% 200 Free
Carrozza, Quinn Texas 1% 200 Free
McLaughlin, Katie California 1.6% 200 Free
Goss, Kennedy Indiana 0.3% 200 Free
Jacobsen, Kirsten Arizona 0.3% 200 Free
King, Lilly Indiana 99.7% 100 Breast
Kozelsky, Lindsey Minnesota 0.3% 33.9% 43.1% 13.3% 100 Breast
Tucker, Miranda Michigan 57.4% 26.9% 8.4% 100 Breast
Belousova, Anna Texas A&M 3.1% 8.6% 31.3% 100 Breast
Duncan, Delaney Eastern Michigan 3.1% 5.2% 13.3% 100 Breast
Scott, Riley Southern Cali 1.8% 9.9% 18.5% 100 Breast
Pierce, Natalie Florida St 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 100 Breast
Williams, Kim Stanford 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 100 Breast
Kansakoski, Silja Arizona St 1% 3.9% 100 Breast
Caneta, Jorie Texas A&M 0.8% 4.7% 100 Breast
Aroesty, Margaret Southern Cali 0.8% 0.5% 100 Breast
Lohman, Kennedy Texas 0.5% 2.1% 100 Breast
Vereb, Joelle Virginia Tech 0.5% 100 Breast
Weidner, Franziska Hawaii 0.3% 100 Breast
Bonnett, Bailey Kentucky 0.3% 100 Breast
Baker, Kathleen California 71.5% 19.1% 6.5% 2.1% 100 Back
Hu, Janet Stanford 14.9% 38.6% 27.9% 13.8% 100 Back
Nelson, Beata Wisconsin 8.9% 19.3% 35.5% 26.9% 100 Back
Howe, Ally Stanford 4.7% 19.3% 23.2% 35.8% 100 Back
Haan, Elise NC State 1% 1.6% 3.9% 100 Back
Stevens, Hannah University of Missouri 1% 0.8% 4.7% 100 Back
Seidt, Asia Kentucky 1.3% 2.1% 7% 100 Back
Adams, Claire Texas 0.3% 0.8% 3.7% 100 Back
Bilquist, Amy California 1.3% 1.3% 100 Back
Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M 0.3% 0.5% 100 Back
Weiss, Hannah Southern Cali 0.3% 100 Back
California 63.2% 27.9% 8.6% 0.5% 200 Medley Relay
Indiana 23% 26.4% 45.2% 4.4% 200 Medley Relay
Stanford 13.6% 44.9% 36% 3.4% 200 Medley Relay
Tennessee 0.3% 4.2% 48.3% 200 Medley Relay
Texas A&M 0.5% 1.8% 10.2% 200 Medley Relay
Minnesota 0.3% 2.9% 21.1% 200 Medley Relay
Southern Cali 0.5% 9.7% 200 Medley Relay
NC State 0.5% 1.6% 200 Medley Relay
Texas 0.3% 0.3% 200 Medley Relay
Georgia 0.3% 200 Medley Relay
Louisville 0.3% 200 Medley Relay
Ledecky, Katie Stanford 100% 0.3% 1650 Free
Moore, Hannah NC State 38.6% 24.5% 20.1% 1650 Free
McHugh, Ally Penn St 31.3% 22.2% 17.2% 1650 Free
Byrnes, Megan Stanford 17% 22.2% 21.1% 1650 Free
Bi, Rose Michigan 9.9% 14.9% 16.2% 1650 Free
Evans, Joanna Texas 2.3% 9.9% 10.7% 1650 Free
Stevens, Leah Stanford 0.8% 3.4% 8.6% 1650 Free
Schmidt, Sierra Michigan 1.6% 1.3% 1650 Free
Ryan, G Michigan 0.5% 0.8% 1650 Free
Hines, Phoebe Hawaii 0.3% 1% 1650 Free
Harnish, Courtney Georgia 0.3% 1% 1650 Free
Cox, Hannah Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 1650 Free
Kowal, Molly Ohio St 0.3% 1650 Free
Jernberg, Cassy Indiana 0.3% 1650 Free
Meitz, Kaersten Purdue 0.3% 1650 Free
Cattermole, Sophie Louisville 0.3% 1650 Free
Mann, Becca Southern Cali 0.3% 1650 Free
Baker, Kathleen California 97.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 200 Back
Hu, Janet Stanford 1.3% 45.3% 30.5% 14.4% 200 Back
Nelson, Beata Wisconsin 0.5% 19.9% 20.9% 24.3% 200 Back
Smiddy, Clara Michigan 0.3% 1.6% 2.9% 200 Back
Seidt, Asia Kentucky 24.3% 26.1% 16.4% 200 Back
Bratton, Lisa Texas A&M 5.8% 11% 19.1% 200 Back
Howe, Ally Stanford 2.6% 7.6% 14.9% 200 Back
Galyer, Ali Kentucky 0.5% 1.6% 4.7% 200 Back
Goss, Kennedy Indiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 200 Back
Stewart, Kylie Georgia 0.5% 200 Back
Szekely, Allie Stanford 0.5% 200 Back
Madden, Paige Virginia 0.5% 200 Back
Voss, Erin Stanford 0.5% 200 Back
Haan, Elise NC State 0.3% 200 Back
Manuel, Simone Stanford 85.6% 10.7% 3.4% 0.3% 100 Free
Weitzeil, Abbey California 7% 35.2% 48.4% 7.9% 100 Free
Comerford, Mallory Louisville 6.8% 53.3% 34.8% 5.2% 100 Free
Brown, Erika Tennessee 0.5% 0.5% 9.2% 52.4% 100 Free
Adams, Claire Texas 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% 100 Free
Baldwin, Caroline UNC 2.1% 13.4% 100 Free
Haughey, Siobhan Bernadette Michigan 1% 12.8% 100 Free
Li, Liz Ohio St 0.3% 2.9% 100 Free
Bilquist, Amy California 0.3% 0.5% 100 Free
Gastaldello, Beryl Texas A&M 0.3% 100 Free
Tetzloff, Alyssa Auburn 1.8% 100 Free
Burchill, Veronica Georgia 0.8% 100 Free
Ochitwa, Ann University of Missouri 0.3% 100 Free
King, Lilly Indiana 88.7% 10.4% 1% 0.5% 200 Breast
Pickrem, Sydney Texas A&M 11% 80.2% 6% 1.6% 200 Breast
Galat, Bethany Texas A&M 0.3% 5.5% 47.6% 25.3% 200 Breast
Belousova, Anna Texas A&M 2.9% 33.8% 30% 200 Breast
Tucker, Miranda Michigan 0.3% 8.1% 26.9% 200 Breast
Aroesty, Margaret Southern Cali 0.3% 2.9% 9.4% 200 Breast
Scott, Riley Southern Cali 0.3% 1.3% 200 Breast
Bonnett, Bailey Kentucky 0.3% 0.8% 200 Breast
Forde, Brooke Stanford 0.3% 1% 200 Breast
Gonzalez Medina, Esther Texas A&M 0.3% 1.3% 200 Breast
Kozelsky, Lindsey Minnesota 0.8% 200 Breast
Kansakoski, Silja Arizona St 0.8% 200 Breast
Marrero, Paloma Akron 0.3% 200 Breast
Eastin, Ella Stanford 98.7% 1% 0.3% 200 Fly
Hansson, Louise Southern Cali 0.8% 45.2% 38.6% 10.4% 200 Fly
Drabot, Katie Stanford 0.3% 48% 39.4% 6.3% 200 Fly
McLaughlin, Katie California 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 3.9% 200 Fly
Kingsley, Megan Georgia 2.1% 9.4% 33.4% 200 Fly
Quah, Jing Texas A&M 1.3% 6.3% 24.8% 200 Fly
Marrkand, Jen Virginia 0.8% 0.8% 6.8% 200 Fly
Rule, Remedy Texas 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 200 Fly
Thomas, Noemie California 0.3% 1.3% 2.6% 200 Fly
Krause, Vanessa Michigan 0.3% 3.4% 200 Fly
Wright, Maddie Southern Cali 1% 5.5% 200 Fly
Small, Meghan Tennessee 0.5% 0.3% 200 Fly
Case, Lauren Texas 0.3% 0.3% 200 Fly
Oglesby, Grace Louisville 1.8% 200 Fly
Stanford 59.3% 33.2% 6.3% 1% 400 Free Relay
California 35% 56.9% 7.3% 0.8% 400 Free Relay
Virginia 5% 7.6% 51.2% 21.1% 400 Free Relay
Louisville 0.8% 2.3% 26.6% 39.9% 400 Free Relay
Michigan 6.8% 28.2% 400 Free Relay
Texas 1.3% 6.8% 400 Free Relay
Texas A&M 0.3% 0.3% 400 Free Relay
NC State 0.3% 400 Free Relay
Tennessee 1.3% 400 Free Relay
Auburn 0.3% 400 Free Relay
Georgia 0.3% 400 Free Relay

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Swimmer

Amazed anyone thinks Katie will be beaten in the 500 free. If that happens I will eat my own face.

Pvdh

1.) Ledecky should be 100% in the 500
2.) I think Ella Eastin has more than a realistic shot to beat Ledecky in 400im. Surprised 89% picked Ledecky to win

CraigH

Agreed. I still picked Ledecky, but it Eastin’s speed in the 4 x 200 Relay is any indication (a 1:41-low split), she looks to be in great shape!

40 Flat

The question is who picked South Carolina to win the team race

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