Underdogs Finke and Cooper Get Second Swims; Day 7 Performance Stats

2016 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

The final prelims session is complete. The field in the women’s 50 free didn’t drop a lot of time, but there were a few standouts. The men’s 1500 field performed about as expected.

Here’s the aggregate time changes from this morning’s events (positive % means slower):

2016 2012
Median Time Change % Who Went Faster # Faster Median Time Change % Who Went Faster
Women 50 Free 1.5% 11% 20 0.9% 22%
Men 1500 Free 1.1% 20% 19 1.0% 25%

Caitlin Cooper had the biggest drop of the morning session at -1.3%. This moved her from 59th on the psych sheet to a semifinal spot in 15th. Robert Finke dropped 16 seconds to move from 35th on the psych sheet to 6th for tomorrow’s finals.

Event Name Time Change Seed Prelim Time
Women 50 Free Caitlin Cooper -1.3% 25.84 25.51
Men 1500 Free Robert Finke -1.1% 15:31.95 15:15.52

Near misses

This morning saw Logan Houck miss a final spot by .41. In a 1500, that’s less than .1%. The margins between swimmers who achieve their goals and those who don’t at an Olympic Trials are very small. There have been 4 Olympic spots decided by less than .2. 16 swimmers have missed a final by less than .2. Getting that close to an Olympic spot is an incredible, if unsatisfying, achievement. Bethany Galat (who has dropped more time than anyone else in the meet relative to seed time), has twice been third by narrow margins.

Here’s a look at 3rd place finishers in finals so far (though it’s hard to feel too badly for the swimmers in the 100 and 200 free):

Women:

% Gap to 2nd Time Gap to 2nd
Bilquist, Amy 100 Back 0.1% 0.08
Hannis, Molly 100 Breast 0.9% 0.58
Stewart, Kendyl 100 Fly 1.8% 1.01
Weir, Amanda 100 Free 0.4% 0.23
Galat, Bethany 200 Breast 0.1% 0.13
Bayer, Cassidy 200 Fly 0.9% 1.18
Smith, Leah 200 Free 0.4% 0.45
Leverenz, Caitlin 200 IM <0.1% 0.05
Runge, Cierra 400 Free 2.7% 6.39
Galat, Bethany 400 IM 0.3% 0.88

Men:

% Gap to 2nd Time Gap to 2nd
Grevers, Matt 100 Back 0.9% 0.48
Prenot, Josh 100 Breast 0.9% 0.55
Held, Ryan 100 Free 0.1% 0.03
Clary, Tyler 200 Back 0.5% 0.56
Licon, Will 200 Breast 0.1% 0.14
Conger, Jack 200 Fly 0.6% 0.64
Conger, Jack 200 Free 0.1% 0.1
Nolan, David 200 IM 2.5% 2.87
Haas, Townley 400 Free 0.2% 0.38
Lochte, Ryan 400 IM 0.4% 1

Here’s a look at the swimmers who finished 1 place out of finals:

Women:

% Gap to 8th Time Gap to 8th
Goeders, Anya 50 Free 0.3% 0.08
Ariola, Grace 100 Back <0.1% 0.03
Larson, Breeja 100 Breast <0.1% 0.02
McLaughlin, Katie 100 Fly 0.1% 0.05
Kennedy, Madison 100 Free 0.2% 0.11
Merrell, Eva 200 Back 0.1% 0.15
Reaney, Emma 200 Breast 0.1% 0.22
Marrkand, Jen 200 Fly 0.2% 0.27
Henry, Sarah 200 Free 0.1% 0.06
Aroesty, Margaret 200 IM 0.6% 0.86
Lazor, Annie 100 Breast 0.6% 0.38
Anderson, Haley 400 Free 0.2% 0.38
Eastin, Ella 400 IM <0.1% 0.04
Mann, Becca 800 Free 0.1% 0.46

Men:

% Gap to 8th Time Gap to 8th
Copeland, William 50 Free 0* 0
Stuart, Hennessey 100 Back 0.1% 0.03
McHugh, Brendan 100 Breast 0.6% 0.36
Liang, Andrew 100 Fly 0.3% 0.14
Williams, David 100 Free <0.1% 0.01
Griffin, Carter 200 Back 0.1% 0.15
Roy, Daniel 200 Breast 0.4% 0.48
Wright, Justin 200 Fly 0.1% 0.14
Rooney, Maxime 200 Free 0.1% 0.14
Whitaker, Kyle 200 IM 0.6% 0.68
Litherland, Kevin 400 Free 0.1% 0.17
Seliskar, Andrew 400 IM 0.1% 0.2
Houck, Logan 1500 Free <0.1% 0.41

*lost in a swim off

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Just Wondering...

Thank you for providing this analysis every session. Well Done.

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