Scoring Out the 2019 Men’s NCAA Division I Pre-Selection Psych Sheets

This morning, the NCAA released its pre-cut psych sheet for the 2019 men’s Division I NCAA Championships. We’ve already projected the cut lines, and you can view them here.

While no cut lines have been made official, we can still score out the psych sheet pretty reliably – the cut line usually falls somewhere around 30, meaning the top 16 seeds should be unaffected. Our resident numbers expert Andrew Mering has already tallied up the points, setting up the true Texas-Cal-Indiana showdown we’ve all been waiting for.

The big wrinkle not included in these projections is diving. Texas scored 81 diving points last year, and should return all 81 after their top three divers qualified for NCAAs yesterday. Indiana scored 98 diving points a year ago, but did graduate 36 of them with Michael Hixon. Cal didn’t score any dive points, but did have one diver qualify for the meet – he’s booked a repeat qualification this year.

The other factors are how much each team rested for their conference meet, whether athletes are seeded at fully rested times or mid-season times, and just how well each team traditionally shows up for NCAAs.

View the psych sheets themselves here

Psych Points Individual Relay Top 16 Ranked Individual Swims
California 402 256 146 21
Indiana 354 204 150 17
Texas 311 188 123 17
NC State 253 123 130 13
Florida 245 125 120 16
Michigan 234 164 70 13
Alabama 192.5 60.5 132 6
Louisville 189 66 123 9
Missouri 151.5 43.5 108 6
Tennessee 133 65 68 5
Ohio St 130 54 76 6
Florida St 111.5 29.5 82 4
Virginia 82 58 24 8
Arizona 81 57 24 6
Southern Cali 70 38 32 3
Georgia 66.5 66.5 0 7
Minnesota 65.5 59.5 6 4
Texas A&M 64 16 48 3
Stanford 60 42 18 8
Arizona St 52.5 36.5 16 4
Harvard 49 35 14 4
Georgia Tech 40 36 4 4
South Carolina 39 39 0 4
Virginia Tech 27 13 14 2
Auburn 24 17 7 2
Grand Canyon 19 17 2 1
Notre Dame 17 17 0 2
Wisconsin 16.5 16.5 0 2
Towson 14 14 0 1
Penn 13 13 0 2
Purdue 11 11 0 1
Pittsburgh 10.5 10.5 0 3
Brigham Young 8 8 0 2
Utah 7 0 7 0
Hawaii 6 6 0 1
Iowa 6 0 6 0
Princeton 5 5 0 1
Denver 5 5 0 1
Kentucky 0 0 0 0
Duke 0 0 0 0

Cal leads the way in both points and individual scoring swims, but Texas and IU should both make up serious ground on diving. Adding in returning diving points from last year would have IU winning by 14 over Cal, with Texas 10 points back of California.

Texas will also have to make some roster decisions. They’ve got 20 men invited, but the roster caps them at 18. Complicating matters is that the 20-person figure is swimmers only and doesn’t include their three divers. Since the divers are all returning scorers, it seems pretty likely all three will make the roster. Divers count as half an athlete towards the 18-person roster cap, so Texas will essentially have to cut four swimmers – leaving home four men who were invited to NCAAs, but can’t fit on Texas’s roster.

The lowest seeds of Texas’s invited swimmers are the following:

  • Andrew Koustik, 28th, 200 fly
  • JohnThomas Larson, 26th, 500 free
  • Josh Artmann, 25th, 200 back
  • Jack Collins, 24th, 1650 free
  • Max Holter, 24th, 200 fly
  • Jake Sannem, 21st, 200 free

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SVIRD

Don’t sleep on IU people.

DRESSEL IS GOD

I haven’t heard Apple’s name besides Cody’s vlogs since Pan Pacs. He’s a huge threat in everything he’ll swim

2 Cents

If they are as comfy as my tempurpedic I would.

phelp's dog

I’m actually gonna hibernate on them.

wethorn

My preliminary scoring is…
1. Texas 471
2. Cal 454
3. Indiana 423

I use subjective ups/downs based on this year’s and last year’s times…which I think is more accurate than just scoring the psych sheet, which tends to ignore what swimmers did last year and hence what they’re capable of.

Gorb

Agreed probably more accurate. How did you score diving?

wethorn

Diving was a bit more guesswork since Zones aren’t done, but I scored Texas divers 4 up, 3 down, Indiana divers 4 up, 1 down, Cal divers with nothing.

googoodoll

Don’t forget Tenessee with 5 divers up and 3 down OH YEA we gonna rock the diving pool. Gotta love the creative outside the box thinking of coach Kreditch he is a master manipulator of the system…just a matter of time until he gets Bill Gates grandson admitted to Tennessee on a diving scholarship!

wethorn

Finally got around to including NC State in this and I have them 4th with 361 points, way behind the big 3. That generously assumes 10 up and 10 down. Not sure what the “changing of the guard” that Wolf of Raleigh is claiming. Pack better watch out that Florida doesn’t knock them down to 5th.

2 Cents

Wolf will say something about how the team has the flu even though they got flu shots and if they fall to 5th or 6th it is because of that….

Austinpoolboy

Texas definitely has some upside over seedings: For example 200 MR should out do 2 pts (16th). They don’t have to win all the relays, but there is room to move up in all.

individually, past scorers can move up, particularly Haas is pretty proven. Newkirk, Pomavich, Shebat, Katz etc.

It will be interesting to see how the Freshmen handle the pressure.

is Sannem healthy? He didn’t swim Big 12’s….

Carol Glover

That could be an interesting conversation in the Collins family for TX.

Superfan

I was thinking the same thing!

coachymccoachface

Tends to joke at big meets anyway.

SwimGeek

Please explain to those of us not aware –

Random123

Wyatt Collins is the assistant coach, jack collins (brother) could be left off the team

SwimGeek

Ah, of course – thanks. Lots of family connections — I think Eddie’s grandson was ultimately fell a little short. i think he went 19.6

2 Cents

Uh oh… put his name in the hat for the unc job then.

Speed Racer

Not the week to be pointing out family connections especially since Texas was named in the bribery scandal. Sounds like all it took was being given preferred walkon status as a recruit for a few of these kids to get in.

SwimGeek

Um, except those involved in the scandal were fraudulently given “recruited athlete” status to assist with admission even if they were never a real athlete (or, at least, not a recruited athlete). But the two family members that we’re discussing here (Wyatt’s bro and Eddie’s grandson) are very real and very good swimmers. Otherwise great comparison!

2 Cents

Agree with both of y’all. Speed Racer, you are right, bringing up nepotism this week is a bad thing…. and SwimGeek, you are right since the athletes you speak of are super fast and would be on any other team’s NCAA squad, at least as part of a relay.

Plus, there is the other obvious thing about it being Texas… not MIT, Princeton, Cal Tech, etc.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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