This morning, the NCAA released its pre-cut psych sheet for the 2019 men’s Division I NCAA Championships. We’ve already projected the cut lines, and you can view them here.
While no cut lines have been made official, we can still score out the psych sheet pretty reliably – the cut line usually falls somewhere around 30, meaning the top 16 seeds should be unaffected. Our resident numbers expert Andrew Mering has already tallied up the points, setting up the true Texas-Cal-Indiana showdown we’ve all been waiting for.
The big wrinkle not included in these projections is diving. Texas scored 81 diving points last year, and should return all 81 after their top three divers qualified for NCAAs yesterday. Indiana scored 98 diving points a year ago, but did graduate 36 of them with Michael Hixon. Cal didn’t score any dive points, but did have one diver qualify for the meet – he’s booked a repeat qualification this year.
The other factors are how much each team rested for their conference meet, whether athletes are seeded at fully rested times or mid-season times, and just how well each team traditionally shows up for NCAAs.
|Psych Points||Individual||Relay||Top 16 Ranked Individual Swims|
Cal leads the way in both points and individual scoring swims, but Texas and IU should both make up serious ground on diving. Adding in returning diving points from last year would have IU winning by 14 over Cal, with Texas 10 points back of California.
Texas will also have to make some roster decisions. They’ve got 20 men invited, but the roster caps them at 18. Complicating matters is that the 20-person figure is swimmers only and doesn’t include their three divers. Since the divers are all returning scorers, it seems pretty likely all three will make the roster. Divers count as half an athlete towards the 18-person roster cap, so Texas will essentially have to cut four swimmers – leaving home four men who were invited to NCAAs, but can’t fit on Texas’s roster.
The lowest seeds of Texas’s invited swimmers are the following:
- Andrew Koustik, 28th, 200 fly
- JohnThomas Larson, 26th, 500 free
- Josh Artmann, 25th, 200 back
- Jack Collins, 24th, 1650 free
- Max Holter, 24th, 200 fly
- Jake Sannem, 21st, 200 free