Scoring Out the Men’s 2014 Pre-Selection Entry Sheets: Florida and Michigan on Top Again

Late on Monday evening, the 2014 men’s pre-selection entry sheets were sent out, and while these don’t show officially where the cutoff lines will fall in individual races, it’s safe to presume that the top 16 are “locks” for NCAA Championship invites (we’ll do the math on where the number is expected to fall today).

See the pre-selection lists here.

We’ve gone ahead and scored the meet out based on where it would fall if the top 16 seeds fell exactly where they sit right now. While it’s far from a precise measurement, it does give fans a good idea of what their team needs to do, as compared to their seeds, to move up and win a title, a top 10 spot, etc.

One of the biggest limitations to this ranking is the lack of diving. That is being shored up this week, and even then seeds are fairly unreliable in diving, but we’ve denoted those teams that will be expecting a significant impact from their divers at NCAA’s with a (d).

Once again, for the second straight year, Florida and Michigan are seeded as the top two teams by points. Last year, Michigan was #1, and that carried them to an NCAA title. This year, it will be a much tighter battle. Anybody who wants to challenge those two teams is going to have to make some major moves; even Texas, with a potential of four or more scoring divers, will need their swimmers to outdo seed by several spots each in order to contend for the title.

A few rankings people might not have expected coming into the year:

  • Alabama sits 10th. They went big at SEC’s, and while there’s some skepticism about if they’ll be able to carry that taper to NCAA’s, it almost doesn’t matter in a ‘big picture’ sense. That program has turned a corner.
  • NC State comes in with the 3rd-most seeded points. Florida State has the 11th-most and a very good diving program. 2014 ACC Champion Virginia Tech is tied with in-state foes Virginia with 27 seeded points, and both hoping for diving contributions. Interesting twists in the ACC continue. NC State men this year remind you a little of the Tennessee women last year headed into NCAA’s, but without the divers.
  • Stanford is only seeded 17th and to have 43 swimming points. Led by Kristian Ipsen, they’ll cash in huge in diving and have a good chance at moving into the top 10, but that swimming depth just isn’t there like it used to be.
  • Cal, the Pac-12 Champions, are seeded only 4th going into NCAA’s. It would be a safe bet to peg them to out score their 252 seeded points, but can they make up the 140 to catch up to Michigan and Florida? Without diving it will be tough, but they’ve got more wiggle room in their relays, which can close that gap in a hurry if they’re able to leapfrog Michigan or Florida in any of them.
Team Seeded Points
1. Florida 391
2. Michigan 376
3. NC State 259
4. Cal 252
5. Auburn 234 (d)
6. Arizona 230 (d)
7. Georgia 204
8. Texas 165 (d+)
9. USC 157
10. Alabama 140
11. Florida St. 133 (d)
12. Indiana 130 (d+)
13. Tennessee 127 (d)
14. Ohio State 107 (d)
15. Louisville 102
16. Penn State 87
17. Stanford 43 (d+)
18. Wisconsin 39
19. Minnesota 37 (d)
20. Notre Dame 35
21. Texas A&M 32
22. UNLV 30
23. Virginia 27 (d)
24. Virginia Tech 27 (d)
25. Purdue 25 (d)
26. West Virginia 23
27. Brown 16
28. Utah 16 (d)
29. Northwestern 16
30. W. Kentucky 14
31. CSUB 12
32. UNC 12
33. Navy 10
34. Hawaii 9
35. Dartmouth 9
36. Yale 7
37. Penn 6
38. Wyoming 5
39. Arizona St. 5 (d)
40. Missouri 4 (d)
41. Georgia Tech 4
42. Denver 3
43. Harvard 3 (d)
44. South Carolina 2

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45 Comments on "Scoring Out the Men’s 2014 Pre-Selection Entry Sheets: Florida and Michigan on Top Again"

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PAC12BACKER

Arizona looks very dangerous to make a run into the top 3. They have a very good chance on winning 4 individual swimming events, 1 diving event, and 2 relays.

duckduckgoose

I’d take Cal and ‘Zona over NC State in a heart beat. If Stanford swimmers don’t move up significantly from their seeds, there will be a lot more sniping especially since Meehan is killing it on the farm.

I bet 80% of the swimmers will go slower at NCAA. The top 3-5 swimmers in each event will go faster just because they are THAT GOOD, and don’t need to fully shave and taper to qualify. I agreed that CAL will be faster, but how much faster? I am expecting to see some of their studs to go slightly faster, but not their depth swimmers. The new system is forcing these top teams to fully shaved and tapered majority of their swimmers just to get them invited to the meet. Some ‘smaller’ teams like NC State will not be contending to hold their ground at this meet because their top swimmers already dropped massive times and hit their peak… Read more »

I’ve heard that critique of Cal every year for the past five years heading into NCAAs. Losing Tyler last year sunk the ship, but the main refrain from the Cal cheering section seems to be ever-apropos of how the team performs, as a group, at the big meet: ‘Roll on you Bears.’ They will be rolling, as they’ll have to be, to challenge the paper favorites. I expect they’ll score in the mid 400s, based on my suspiciously optimistic yet historically quite accurate up/down predictions, which I laboriously scratched into my cell wall last night before covering it up with my poster of Rita Hayworth. Will it be enough?

Where are Woody Joy and Michael Sheppard for Zona? Both are scorers at NCAAs but aren’t entered. That hurts!

Not sure about Sheppard, but Joye didn’t swim at Pac 12’s. I said when he transferred from Texas that Woody was a cancer and caught a lot of flack. Guarantee I was right.

# full_name_computed team_code Best Rank Event Time Tiebreakers 1 Cordes, Kevin ARIZ 1 100 Breaststroke SCY Male 48:00.00 100.00000% 2 Kalisz, Chase UGA 1 400 Individual Medley SCY Male 3:36.89 99.58043% 3 De Lucca, Joao LOU 1 200 Freestyle SCY Male 1:31.65 99.50900% 4 Whitaker, Kyle MICH 1 200 Individual Medley SCY Male 1:41.14 99.35733% 5 Bosch, Dylan MICH 1 200 Butterfly SCY Male 1:40.37 99.28265% 6 Wallace, Dan FLOR 1 500 Freestyle SCY Male 4:10.73 99.15048% 7 Jaeger, Connor MICH 1 1650 Freestyle SCY Male 14:34.19 98.84350% 8 Ryan, Shane PSU 1 100 Backstroke SCY Male 7:12.00 98.82561% 9 Smith, Giles ARIZ 1 100 Butterfly SCY Male 31:12.00 98.77040% 10 Ress, Eric IND 1 200 Backstroke SCY Male 1:38.89… Read more »
235 by team and qualifying event full_name_computed team_code Best Rank Event Barber, Matt ARIZ 7 500 Freestyle SCY Male Cordes, Kevin ARIZ 1 100 Breaststroke SCY Male Friedemann, Mitchell ARIZ 4 100 Backstroke SCY Male Meyer, Michael ARIZ 6 400 Individual Medley SCY Male Porter, Andrew ARIZ 17 100 Butterfly SCY Male Rowan, Sam ARIZ 24 200 Breaststroke SCY Male Smith, Giles ARIZ 1 100 Butterfly SCY Male Solis, Eric ARIZ 25 400 Individual Medley SCY Male Steel, Kevin ARIZ 10 100 Breaststroke SCY Male Tandy, Brad ARIZ 1 50 Freestyle SCY Male Coci, Alex ASU 12 200 Butterfly SCY Male Chierighini, Marcelo AUB 1 100 Freestyle SCY Male Darmody, Kyle AUB 7 100 Backstroke SCY Male Disney-May, James AUB… Read more »
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About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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