Scoring Out the Men’s 2014 Pre-Selection Entry Sheets: Florida and Michigan on Top Again

  45 Braden Keith | March 11th, 2014 | College, News, Previews & Recaps

Late on Monday evening, the 2014 men’s pre-selection entry sheets were sent out, and while these don’t show officially where the cutoff lines will fall in individual races, it’s safe to presume that the top 16 are “locks” for NCAA Championship invites (we’ll do the math on where the number is expected to fall today).

See the pre-selection lists here.

We’ve gone ahead and scored the meet out based on where it would fall if the top 16 seeds fell exactly where they sit right now. While it’s far from a precise measurement, it does give fans a good idea of what their team needs to do, as compared to their seeds, to move up and win a title, a top 10 spot, etc.

One of the biggest limitations to this ranking is the lack of diving. That is being shored up this week, and even then seeds are fairly unreliable in diving, but we’ve denoted those teams that will be expecting a significant impact from their divers at NCAA’s with a (d).

Once again, for the second straight year, Florida and Michigan are seeded as the top two teams by points. Last year, Michigan was #1, and that carried them to an NCAA title. This year, it will be a much tighter battle. Anybody who wants to challenge those two teams is going to have to make some major moves; even Texas, with a potential of four or more scoring divers, will need their swimmers to outdo seed by several spots each in order to contend for the title.

A few rankings people might not have expected coming into the year:

  • Alabama sits 10th. They went big at SEC’s, and while there’s some skepticism about if they’ll be able to carry that taper to NCAA’s, it almost doesn’t matter in a ‘big picture’ sense. That program has turned a corner.
  • NC State comes in with the 3rd-most seeded points. Florida State has the 11th-most and a very good diving program. 2014 ACC Champion Virginia Tech is tied with in-state foes Virginia with 27 seeded points, and both hoping for diving contributions. Interesting twists in the ACC continue. NC State men this year remind you a little of the Tennessee women last year headed into NCAA’s, but without the divers.
  • Stanford is only seeded 17th and to have 43 swimming points. Led by Kristian Ipsen, they’ll cash in huge in diving and have a good chance at moving into the top 10, but that swimming depth just isn’t there like it used to be.
  • Cal, the Pac-12 Champions, are seeded only 4th going into NCAA’s. It would be a safe bet to peg them to out score their 252 seeded points, but can they make up the 140 to catch up to Michigan and Florida? Without diving it will be tough, but they’ve got more wiggle room in their relays, which can close that gap in a hurry if they’re able to leapfrog Michigan or Florida in any of them.
Team Seeded Points
1. Florida 391
2. Michigan 376
3. NC State 259
4. Cal 252
5. Auburn 234 (d)
6. Arizona 230 (d)
7. Georgia 204
8. Texas 165 (d+)
9. USC 157
10. Alabama 140
11. Florida St. 133 (d)
12. Indiana 130 (d+)
13. Tennessee 127 (d)
14. Ohio State 107 (d)
15. Louisville 102
16. Penn State 87
17. Stanford 43 (d+)
18. Wisconsin 39
19. Minnesota 37 (d)
20. Notre Dame 35
21. Texas A&M 32
22. UNLV 30
23. Virginia 27 (d)
24. Virginia Tech 27 (d)
25. Purdue 25 (d)
26. West Virginia 23
27. Brown 16
28. Utah 16 (d)
29. Northwestern 16
30. W. Kentucky 14
31. CSUB 12
32. UNC 12
33. Navy 10
34. Hawaii 9
35. Dartmouth 9
36. Yale 7
37. Penn 6
38. Wyoming 5
39. Arizona St. 5 (d)
40. Missouri 4 (d)
41. Georgia Tech 4
42. Denver 3
43. Harvard 3 (d)
44. South Carolina 2

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45 Comments on "Scoring Out the Men’s 2014 Pre-Selection Entry Sheets: Florida and Michigan on Top Again"

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Here are my team predictions. I’ve been pretty accurate with these over the past 7 years. My methodology is very manual, so the only teams I evaluated are these 8, meaning that I wouldn’t be surprised if some upstarts like NC State or Louisvile move into the last 2 slots. 1. Florida, 420 2. Michigan, 384 3. Cal, 367 4. Texas, 356 5. Zona, 315 6. Auburn, 293 7. Stanford, 233 8. USC, 222 This meet among the top 4 wil be much tighter than last year. Of these teams, Texas has the most upside based on the number of bodies (16 swimmers and 4 divers), and the fact that they likely had the most guys not rested at conference.

You guys are underestimating Texas. They may not win it, but they’ll be in the mix. My full team predictions may come later tonight.

I love how this comedic thing is repeated annually.

Every year, there’s ALWAYS the same claim that in their conference meets, college A was shaved, college B was rested but not shaved, College C was rested but not tapered, etc etc

wpDiscuz

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

The most common question asked about Braden Keith is "when does he sleep?" That's because Braden has, in two years in the game, become one of the most prolific writers in swimming at a level that has earned him the nickname "the machine" in some circles. He first got his feet …

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