Picks: American Men Look to Continue Streak in Medley Relay

For our relay picks, we’ll lay out the previews a bit differently. We’ll present each relay with a best time, an aggregate time based on entry times, and the likely relay members, and then lay out a bit of analysis on each grouping. On medleys, this can sometime be a bit of a guessing game, but we’ll take a stab at assembling the best relay.

For athletes marked with an asterisk (*), they will not swim this event individually in London.

1. USA – Actual: 3:32.06 Aggregate: 3:30.52

Matt Grevers – 52.08
Brendan Hansen -59.68
Michael Phelps – 50.71
Nathan Adrian – 48.05

Breakdown: The Americans are huge favorites to win this relay, if for no other reason than their balance. The Americans probably could no longer beat a “world’s best” relay, made up of everybody not from the U.S., but the key to their dominance year-after-year is the fact that they can afford to have one, or even two, of their swimmers put up poor races, and still expect to win gold. That’s why they’ve never lost this event at an Olympics (aside from the 1980 boycott). The weakest swim last year was probably on the backstroke – though few across the field swam well – and with Grevers’ 52.0, that shouldn’t be a problem this year. We’ll give it about a 10% chance at the World Record – but only if Adrian finds his inner Dave-Walters and goes sub-47.

2. Australia – Actual: 3:32.26 Aggregate: 3:32.38

Hayden Stoeckel – 53.70
Christian Sprenger – 59.91
Chris Wright – 51.67
James Magnussen – 47.10

Breakdown: The Australians could sit about 4th for the better part of this race, but James Magnussen has already shown last year that he is a more-than-capable relay swimmer to go with his impressive individual feats. He’ll make up close to a second on the Americans, Germans, and Japanese. That should be enough to pick-off two of the three, especially with the middle two legs looking better than they have. Stoeckel on the backstroke leg will be the biggest question mark, but he’s been pretty good this year.

3. Japan – Actual: 3:32.89 Aggregate: 3:33.05

Ryosuke Irie – 52.91
Kosuke Kitajima – 58.90
Takeshi Matsuda – 52.36
Takuro Fujii – 48.88

Breakdown: The Japanese have a few big advantages in this race over the Germans and the French with whom they’ll be battling for the bronze. One is obviously Kosuke Kitajima – the best breaststrokers in the world are very far ahead of the second tier, and Kitajima is at the top of that group of “best”. The other is the consistent Ryosuke Irie – he was the only swimmer at last year’s World Championships to break 53 in this relay leadoff. Expect them to be in the lead, or neck-and-neck with the Americans, at the halfway mark. What they do with their back-half will be huge in their final result, but they never found their sprint freestyler (they don’t have a single one on the roster, even as relay only). That means we’ll probably see Matsuda on fly (his sprinting is improved this year) and Fujii anchor (he’s much better than his 48.88 flat-start indicates). Could be a painful fade back to the field.

4. Germany – Actual: 3:32.60 Aggregate:3:34.01

Helge Meeuw – 53.22/Jan-Philip Glania – 53.50
Hendrik Feldwehr – 1:00.48/Christian vom Lehn (1:00.51)
Benjamin Starke – 51.65
Paul Biedermann – 48.66

Breakdown: Because of Hendrik Feldwehr’s injury, vom Lehn probably gets the spot on this medley, but that won’t likely result in as much of a downgrade (if any) as we would have seen in past years. This aggregate time is a bit misleading: Biedermann doesn’t swim the 100 free from a flat start on a taper often, but is capable of a 47-low on a rolling start. Benjamin Starke has been very good this year, but the Germans have a similar challenge of timing as the Americans do.

5. France – Actual: 3:36.21 Aggregate: 3:33.80

Camille Lacourt – 52.44
Giacomo Perez-Dortona – 1:00.86
Clement Lefert – 52.48
Yannick Agnel – 48.02/Fabien Gilot – 48.13

Breakddown: Again, emphasize the backstroke. Camille Lacourt, if he’s on at this meet, will be matched only by Matt Grevers. Hopefully, this squad can avoid the prelims meltdown that they had at Worlds that caused them to miss the final.  With newcomer Giacomo Perez-Dortona likely taking over the breaststroke spot, and Clement Lefert providing a much more stable option on the fly leg, the French are dangerous. Yannick Agnel shifting his focus to the freestyle races doesn’t hurt either. There’s still some trepidation here, though, after what we saw last year. The middle two legs will be significant for this team’s success.

6. Netherlands – Actual: 3:34.11 Aggregate: 3:34.48

Bastiaan Lijesen – 53.86/Nick Driebergen – 53.98
Lennart Stekelenburg – 1:00.50
Joeri Verlinden – 51.85
Sebastiaan Verschuren – 48.27

Breakdown: This is another relay that’s all about “balance”. With so few relays in the world being able to put together four good legs, this Dutch relay surprised some people to place 5th at Worlds last year. Their secret weapons are their back half – Verlinden is a very underrated butterflier, and Verschuren has proven to be an outstanding relay swimmer. There’s a chance for this squad to medal, if one of their two backstrokers steps up.

7. Brazil – Actual: 3:34.58 Aggregate: 3:33.44

Thiago Pereira – 53.86
Felipe Silva – 59.63
Kaio Almeida – 52.11
Cesar Cielo – 47.84

Breakdown: This Brazilian relay seems like it could be great. But they are going to be in a huge hole after the backstroke, and that will hurt. There’s been a lot of talk about moving Cielo to the fly leg and letting someone like Nicolas Oliveira, renowned for his relay skills, anchor. Afterall, Cielo is the World Champ in the 50 fly. But that doesn’t seem like it’s part of the plan – Cesar hasn’t been swimming any butterfly, and they left him as the anchor at Pan Ams. At the Olympics, its best to let everyone swim their primary stroke – especially in a relay as emotional as this one. They’ll be expecting him to split under a 48 for this move to make sense. Most of the drop for this team to medal will be counted to come from Felipe Silva’s improved breaststroke.

8. Poland – Actual: 3:36.13 Aggregate: 3:36.66

Marcin Tarczynski – 54.12
Dawid Szulich – 1:01.18
Oskar Krupecki – 52.88
Konrad Czerniak – 48.48

Breakdown: This is an underrated Polish relay that has a good chance at winning the battle with Great Britain, Canada, and Italy as well as a few other countries for the last spot in the finals. The Poles seem poised to slide Konrad Czerniak, the world’s number two butterflier, over to the freestyle leg. He’s the country’s best in both races, but they have butterflier Oskar Krupecki on the roster as a relay only swimmer, and nobody aside from Czerniak in the sprint group.

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Kevin
11 years ago

Wow, a few of us on this site know way too much about swimming. Some of these analyses are amazing.

Andre Lucena
11 years ago

Cielo´s keep training hard for 100 free. Brazilians here can confirm: Cielo have condition to swim 100m free in 47 low. At the same way, a possible silver/bronze medal in this event can´t stop him for 21 low (and gold – new textile best, olympic record) or 20 at 50m. Cielo want a gold in 100 free, naturally, but he´s psychologically prepared for eventual gold for Magnussen. Cielo is mentally indestructible, much more than Magnussen, and it´s go to be seeing at Olympics.

Tea
11 years ago

Ages back, I remember seeing a PDF of world all-time bests that included fastest relay splits of all time. Does anyone know if there is still a place where fastest relay splits are compiled????

Ole 99
Reply to  Tea
11 years ago

Per Craig Lord the top six textile freestyle relay splits are as follows:

46.70 Van Den Hoogenband 2003
47.00 Magnussen 2011
47.03 Bousquet 2003
47.07 Cielo 2011
47.18 Magnini 2007
47.20 Thorpe 2002

Rafael
Reply to  Ole 99
11 years ago

Pieter and Cielo Splits are (for me) the best of that list.

Pieter catch up was (and still is) amazing.. perfect swim by one of the greatest freestyle swimmers ever.

Cielo was pretty good too based on a terrible RT (0.33), Altitude and that he was the only one of that list that was not catching up someone and , brazil was already leading the relay..

But On Emotion based Bousquet split was the best

Tea
Reply to  Ole 99
11 years ago

I thought Alexander Popov had 46 relay split once upon a time. Maybe I’m remembering wrong?

Rafael
Reply to  Tea
11 years ago

I´ve checed All OG and World Champs and found nothing.

But probably on medley relay Cielo and Mag will beat Pieter time.. but considering how many years after just shows how amazing Pieter was

JackedAndTan
11 years ago

Pretty sure Italy and Russia will beat at least Poland for a finals spot.

Is gonna be interesting to see what Magnussen can pull out in the freestyle leg, given that he most likely WILL have a Lezak-esque deficit to make up on the Americans/Japanese/whatever and thus will be filled with motivation.

Rafael
Reply to  JackedAndTan
11 years ago

I Think it will be pretty saddening for the japanese to watch Fujii being passed by Magnussen Cielo maybe even Agnel and Bieldermann..

Tea
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

Agree, Japan’s sprint freestyle is going to be sad. However, they could hang in there for silver. I could see them in the lead, by close to two seconds over everyone but the Americans at halfway (with Brazil probably in third). Matsuda has been looking good, even though he’s more of a 200 flyer. I don’t envy Fujii being run down by all those freestylers, but he *should* get a big lead over them.

As for Lezak’s record, it’s not going anywhere. He had a perfect start and drafted off the huge Alain Bernard for 90% of that leg. Maybe it’ll work out where Magnussen can get a boost from chasing Adrian, but 46.0 is just toooooo fast.

Rafael
Reply to  Tea
11 years ago

JPN is going to need a Huge Advantage.. and that is not given.

Considering Brazil and AUS the biggest threat… Brazil will probably be around 1 second, at most 1.5 seconds after JPN on fly leg.. and Matsuda and kaio are probably on the same level.. maybe a little advantage for Kaio on the 100 fly…

But if Fujii is not at least 1.5 seconds maybe even 2 in front of Cielo and Magnussen… he is probably going for a 48 mid… while the top freestylers will be going for a 46 mid high..

Tea
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

Agree Almeida and Matsuda should be pretty close on the fly leg. Chris Wright for AUS looks a little better, but only about 1/2 second. Fujii may be a 48 low, whereas I think either Magnussen or Cielo, at the end of the week, would be happy with 46 high. .7 seconds from a relay start is a best-case scenario, and Magnussen at 47.10 flat start is a best-case scenario.

Personally, I think the Australian team is a little overrated. On paper, of Braden’s top 8 teams, they have the #5 backstroker, #4 breaststroker, #3 flyer, and #1 freestyler. There’s a lot more spread in the backstroke and breaststroke times than the faster strokes (despite Magnussen’s outlier time), so… Read more »

john26
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

@Tea,
The Brazillians do not stand a chance against the Aussies on paper. The only leg where they hold an advantage is the breastroke. They are not being overrated because all the discussion so far has been speculation based on seed times. Based this form of analysis, the US start as big favorites over the Aussies and other teams as the Aussies are in the 4×100 free (almost 2 seconds).

The key for Australia is that they have 4 swimmers that can make finals in their events, this is something that no other nation except for the US could confidently boast. Also, they have reliable performers, which is not something the other potential medaling countries can claim.

If a… Read more »

Rafael
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

John

France has a superbeg back leg.. but that´s it for the team…

Any advantage Lacout can build over Pereira, França can easily counter.. and on fly and free Brazil has the upper hand ( not by a big margin but has, and Cielo is a guy who has proven himself to put up times when needed to) he has a 47.07 split with a terrible start (.33, he usally has a .61 RT).

I think US will be first, with Australia Second and Brazil third.. and then JPN will be pretty tied to France and Germany. How close AUS and BRA will be it depends on how much will França deliver with his “right” weight.. now 3 to 4… Read more »

aswimfan
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

TEA,

How can the aussies be overrated when they already won silver at last year’s worlds?

Tea
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

I think the Aussies look great on paper – their aggregate time is #2, and they took the silver last year. But, I think most of their swimmers are maxed out this year. Stoeckel and Rickard put up mediocre times at Aussie trials, when presumably they were on a full taper to make the team. They are 27-28 years old, so while they might drop a little time, I doubt seeing any huge breakthrough performances from either. A 53 high back leg will kill them…. if you can draft from behind on breast or fly, I’ve never seen it. Wright looks good, but every country has a 51-52 flyer on their squad. Magnussen is of course outstanding, but I doubt… Read more »

john26
11 years ago

To people who speak portuguese, what is Cielo saying?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVIzAX7W0AA

Reply to  john26
11 years ago

John26, nothing impressive, just he wants to best his(textile) times and try two medals.

You can read all interview here(use google translator):
http://www.cesarcielo.com.br/home/?p=1994

Rafael
Reply to  john26
11 years ago

he is saying (some adjusts by myself to make it faster) that each race will be like “one of a kind” and he will give it all on each race.. (even the relays) he admits he has the best shot on 50 free but he will swim every race like it was his “last lifetime race”
He remembered a little of Beijing and said he is feeling good.. and he will go for his textile best on both events..

Just for the record

França dropped about 4 kilos till Maria Lenk.. he Had nearly 20% fat on World 2011 and now he has 10%

SwimNerd
11 years ago

South Africa will be top 8 for sure
crous-54.1
VD Burgh-59.49
Le Clos 52.4
Moore 48.15/Louw 48.7
3:34,14/3:34.7
All Young Great swimmers, they’ll even be in the hunt for a medal if crous has a good leadoff

bobo gigi
11 years ago

Men’s 4X100 medley relay. USA in 3.29.20
This american team is fast and has no weaknesses. I can’t imagine and I don’t want to see a defeat for the last race of Michael Phelps. He deserves a big win to finish his giant career.

Rafael
Reply to  bobo gigi
11 years ago

the medley relays are probably the easiest team win for US, both are given ones… they are favorites for 4×200 free men relay.. but not on the same extent as medley.. the changes are equal for women 4×200 free relay,, not good for women 4×100 free relay and outside medal for 4×100 men relay..

Jean Michel
Reply to  Rafael
11 years ago

exactly ! those 2 medleys are sure gold wins ! the 800 free relays will be more challenged by other nations but i still feel Usa can get them inot gold too . Let’s see how works the 400 free relays …we never know what can happen as in 2008 . Surprise , surprise , surprise

Rafael
Reply to  Jean Michel
11 years ago

2008 was not a surprise.. US HAD the best times if you sum up all times.. This Craig Lord Nonsense is out of proportion

HKswimmer
11 years ago

Agree with JOHN26, I don’t think Mag will be able to get past Lezak’s split, even if I do think he will be able to get close to it. We have to remember that improvement curves aren’t linear, and the faster the times get the harder improvement gets even for relay starts…

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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