How Fast Will Michael Andrew Swim at The Olympic Games?

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.comThe title above is for swim fans here on SwimSwam.com. If you want to play the prediction game, see my predictions below.   The title probably should be How Does Olympic Swimmer Michael Andrew Handle Media Pressure?

In the aftermath of USA Swimming’s press conference last week with 2021 Team USA Olympian Michael Andrew, I asked him to come on the SwimSwam podcast. If you missed it, see his press conference here. He went viral because of his response about why he wasn’t vaccinated. (For the record, I am vaccinated, and I recommend it. I trust the science. I also strive to respect others’ opinion on this topic despite my personal feelings.) At any rate, I didn’t ask Michael to come on the pod to debate or defend himself. I did want to know how he has handled the media pressure.

For anyone in swimming, you know Michael’s been a lightening rod since he was ten years old, back when he started his ambush on nearly every National Age Group Record in the sport.

Michael unpacks his long journey and how he’s handled criticism over the years, from his choice to train exclusively USRPT to turning pro at the tender age of 14. Michael also opens about his decision to not participate in Season III of the International Swimming League (ISL), which partly includes more insight about the Michael Andrew Swim Academy. Finally he deconstructs his Olympic Trials performance and looks ahead to the Olympics and Team USA’s challenges in the men’s relays.

For curious mind, see the Michael Andrew Swim Academy here.

MICHAEL ANDREW – OLYMPIC GAMES PREDICTIONS:

200 IM? Michael wins gold in the 200 IM with another 1:55 low. However,  Michael swims faster in the semi, just dipping under 1:55 for a new PB.

100 breast? I’d like to see a 57 plus. I think he makes the podium, winning a bronze.

50 free? 21.3 and he’s bronze or just off the podium. (I see a fast 50m free final. Dressel dips under 21 seconds, 20.86, and he pulls two more swimmers along each posting 21.1 and 21.2.)

Mixed Medley Relay? Michael Andrew nets gold swimming in the prelim. Team USA switches the lineup in the final, going with King in the breast and Dressel in the Fly.

Medley relay? I don’t know. I think the U.K. wins, which SwimSwam Editor-in-Chief Braden backed up, and which I’ve already stated in our Olympic Games podcast preview (which drops Friday). SwimSwam Head of Production Coleman Hodges disagrees. He thinks Team USA wins back the gold after the 2019 World Championship loss.

BIG NOTE!  The only prediction I got right about Michael at U.S. Olympic Trials was his 50m free. See my US Trials predictions below:

  • 1:55.9 – 200 IM – for 2nd or 3rd  (was wrong, Michael was 1:55.26 for the win)
  • 50.5 – 100 fly for 2nd, 3rd or 4th (was way wrong, Michael didn’t swim it)
  • 21.4 – 50 free for 2nd or 3rd (was right…but so were a lot of commenters)
  • 58.3 – 100 breast and said he’d break the AR (was wrong, he was 58.1 twice)

So, who cares what I think. What do you think? Give me your best expert swimming analysis.

Follow Gold Medal Mel on Instagram here

Follow Michael Andrew on Instagram here.  

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

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Ghost
2 months ago

I ask that same question about each athlete!

Charge
2 months ago

Mel, I’m curious what splits you think GB put up to win gold, or is just a gut feel? If you think MA can go 57 high in the 100 breast I think a USA 52.3/57.9/49.2/47 relay is unbeatable

Ol' Longhorn
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Mel, Peaty is swimming breast on the relay, not free. 54+?

Carson Yoerger
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Respectfully, are you on something? No chance peaty splits 54!! 55 would literally be insane and so would 56 anything for that matter. I think they could still win but it’ll be close

Anonymoose
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

you can really not get over this one prediction you made about phelps can you haha

not using it as an argument for the first time are you 😉

Mr Piano
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Yea but Mel, there is a human limit.

Brownish
Reply to  Mr Piano
2 months ago

Ok, then 55 would be enough.

Coach Mike 1952
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Yes, MP did do a 1:52.9, but a 54 – ANY 54 – in LCM 1BR would be beyond even:

  1. a Michael Johnson type run in the 200M at 19.32 in Atlanta 1996;
  2. Mary T’s 57.93 Brown Deer 100 fly in 1981;
  3. Janet Evans’ 800 free 8:16.22 in Tokyo at PanPacs 1989;
  4. Bob Beamon’s long jump in 1968 in Mexico City 29 2 1/2 inches & broke the world

record by nearly two feet;

  1. Katie L’s 8:04 800M free.
  2. May be more too, but pressed to think of any right now.

All otherworldly.

Erik
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Peaty a 54+?! You’re expecting a 2 second drop off his best relay split and faster then his short course relay split from ISL?

Swim2
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

If peaty splits a 54 he’s on steroids and no one will convince me otherwise.

Scotty P
Reply to  Swim2
2 months ago

Bro can do a 1000lb leg press or something. It was on his Instagram.

Togger
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Peaty’s a monster, but even as a Brit I think 54 is out of his reach!

I think he could split 55 though with no 50s to tire him out (dude’s absolutely tank and goes super hard every round, must build up some fatigue). Then it comes down to whether Dressel can reply with a super split of his own.

Eras
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Actually, Peaty’s 54 is not out of the world, in my opinion. I think he’ll be 56 low in the individual, so subtract 6 tens and you have a 55.4…if he goes under 56 in the individual, then who know what happens.

dresselgoat
Reply to  Eras
2 months ago

I’m as big a Peaty fan as anyone but you all are being silly.

MTK
Reply to  dresselgoat
2 months ago

Yep. He split 56.59 on the 2016 relay. Best case scenario I could imagine is 55.99, and even that doesn’t seem reasonable, given that he’s been 56.8-57.low consistently for the last 5 years at chanpionship meets, why would he suddenly hack off 1+ seconds in a 100m event?

Charge
Reply to  Eras
2 months ago

54 is pretty ludicrous, I guess will know pretty early since the 100 breast comes in the first few days.

With all due respect the poster, 3 50’s breast over two days for a world class athlete isn’t going to impact the 100 breast split three days later. Sorry

If he really goes 54 something then Mel is the king of all predictions.

I have them 52.7/56.2/50.2/46.4 at best but maybe you have the read on this, and that’s pretty aggressive for everyone unless you think Scott goes 46.1 again.

More likely is 53.0/56.8/50.7/46.6

US “likely” result is 52.3/57.7/49.2/47.0
US aggressive is 51.9/57.5/49.0/46.8

USA “likely” and “aggressive” are both better than brits corresponding. Now if you… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Charge
Idc
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

I would call Murphy 51.9 likely and I think Scott’s 46 was a one time thing doubt he’s even in the 46 range again.

Swimmer24
Reply to  Idc
2 months ago

Considering he split a 46 and a 47.1 at euros this year not fully rested, quite likely he could be in the 46 range again I’d say

Last edited 2 months ago by Swimmer24
Troyy
Reply to  Idc
2 months ago

He’s already been in the 46 range this year at Euros without a full taper.

Brownish
Reply to  Idc
2 months ago

Scott will be in 46 range and Murphy near as you write e.g. 52.0. So Peaty “against” Dressel is the question. I think GB.

Bruh
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

I think that you’re aggressive it’s a bit off for Apple. Apple has gone 46.86 at worlds 2019. Aggressive would be 46.5

Charge
Reply to  Bruh
2 months ago

As far as we can tell his 46.8 is still a one-off just like Scott’s 46.1

Deepblue
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

“He just needs to come back in 29-flat, it’s that simple!”

Landen
Reply to  Deepblue
2 months ago

Chupkov in the 200 breast be like

IM FAN
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

I think Murphy going to be about a second faster than he was in 2019. The USA should have a second lead or more heading into the breaststroke. Peaty 54?!?!? Did you mean 55, in which case I could maybe see that. I see him somewhere from 55.8-56.8, while I see Andrew going 57.6-58.3. So I think Peaty likely gets around a 1.5 seconds back for GB, putting them about half a second in the lead. Dressel will probably go 1-1.5 seconds faster than Guy, and I think it will be closer the later since Dressel’s fly (well really everything but especially his fly) is so far ahead of where he’s been in the past. I think the USA will… Read more »

dresselgoat
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

54+ would be the craziest swim ever. That would be like a 45 low 100 free split

Last edited 2 months ago by dresselgoat
MarkB
Reply to  dresselgoat
2 months ago

Since that’s 2 seconds faster than his best split then it would be like Dressel going 47+. If anyone put that out, they’d be laughed off this site.

Coach Mike 1952
Reply to  MarkB
2 months ago

Ws going to make the same comment, the 47+. Good to see others thinking along the same vein.

Idc
Reply to  dresselgoat
2 months ago

More like 44 low

jeff
Reply to  dresselgoat
2 months ago

Using the fact that a 54.9 is 95% of the time of the second fastest split ever (57.8), it would be about equal to a 43.8 free split, a 49.3 back split, or a 47.2 fly split

tea rex
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

Mel, you crafty troll. Your crystal ball may not see a 54 breast split, but it did see lots of replies getting posted.

Benjamin van der Wel
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

I’m conflicted now! I want Team USA to win that relay but seeing Peaty go a 54+ …well, that would be totes incredible.

Chris
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

hold up. Murphy has been under 52. Don’t sandbag him with that 52.3!

Charge
Reply to  Chris
2 months ago

That was 5 years ago, just trying to be fair

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

He was sub 52 in 2018.

Idc
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

3 last time I checked

Charge
Reply to  Idc
2 months ago

Fair enough, just trying to be even handed unless you want me to give Scott a 46.1 🙂

john26
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

Not sure why no one has really talked about this, but it’s not unrealistic for Luke Greenbank to drop time in the 100back, he’s young enough and may have done no speed work leading into Euros. If he pops a 52.8 (more likely than Peaty splitting 54), and/or Guy splits a 50.1 – 50.2, it could be game over.

Charge
Reply to  john26
2 months ago

You could then say dressel was 49.7 without a full taper, will be 49.1 with a taper and split 48.8 on the relay

At some point you let the law of averages take over and find reasonable outcomes.

We could say USA goes
51.7 because RM has been 51.8 and wasn’t tapered fully at US trials

57.6 because MA has a relay start

48.8 see above

46.8 Zach apple because he did that two years ago

USA wins by almost a second even with your scenario above

Braden said it best about relays, fans always pull best case scenarios out. Sometimes we get a 46.06 or 46.16 or whatever, but usually things play… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Charge
Coach Mike 1952
Reply to  Charge
2 months ago

Yes, & the other factor is that the MR comes at the very end, after what could be a grueling week. Fatigue could play as role, but then again some swimmers get better as the meet goes on too. A toss-up perhaps?

Ragnar
Reply to  Coach Mike 1952
2 months ago

Very true, caelebs 39.9 on day 4 in 2018 would’ve been a 38.9 on day 1. Animal

Togger
2 months ago

MA turns into Mel’s worst nightmare when he goes 46 low as a surprise addition to the 400 free relay heats, using an unconventional no breath full hundred.

The comments section goes so nuts it actually overwhelms the server, bringing SwimSwam down for the entire Olympic week.

Last edited 2 months ago by Togger
Landen
Reply to  Togger
2 months ago

Splits are a 20 flat and a 26 back

dddddddd
Reply to  Landen
2 months ago

17.63 out

USA
Reply to  Togger
2 months ago

Team USA puts him in the finals, he anchors in 46.8, and they win by a hundredth.

Chad
Reply to  Togger
2 months ago

Then MA drops a marvelous 49.4 free split in the finals

mcmflyguy
2 months ago

I think we get surprised in the 200 I’m with 1:54.6. surprising even himself.

Eagleswim
Reply to  mcmflyguy
2 months ago

I think that’s totally possible if he has taken just a few lessons from trials. The race is still new to him and I think 1:54 mid is within reach.

Joe
2 months ago

I just hope MA doesn’t get COVID in the next two weeks

Pags
Reply to  Joe
2 months ago

I think it’s extremely unlikely he gets COVID again. Contact tracing forcing him into a quarantine protocol, though? That’s a considerably higher risk.

swimfan27
2 months ago

I think how fast he goes—and whether he swims at all—depends on whether he gets COVID again or not LOL.

Aqqq
Reply to  swimfan27
2 months ago

FUNNY HAHAH

Nicole
2 months ago

So SwimSwam predicts MA doesn’t make the podium in the 50FR or 100BR but Mel has him medaling in all 3 events? Interesting.

Admin
Reply to  Nicole
2 months ago

Yeah @Gold Medal Mel Stewart. “Interesting.”

Nicole
Reply to  Braden Keith
2 months ago

Well, a discrepancy. Which is interesting. 🤷🏻‍♀️

IM FAN
2 months ago

IDK about Britain beating the US on the medley again. I think the resergence of Ryan Murphy, Michael Andrew on the breastrokd, and a freestyle Anchor likely to be faster than Adrian was in 2019, and the likely eventuality that Duncan Scott will be at least a few tenths slower than his historic anchor I think leads to a comfortable US victory again.

IM FAN
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
2 months ago

I am honored no joke.

moddiddle
Reply to  IM FAN
2 months ago

I wonder if my comment has ever been upvoted by an Olympic Gold medalist. I wonder if an anonymous gold medalist has ever upvoted another anonymous gold medalist. Oh the possibilities!

M Palota
Reply to  IM FAN
2 months ago

The key is Michael Andrew. If he’s 58.5 or slower, the Americans lose.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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