Early Tuesday morning, the NCAA released their pre-cut psych sheets for the 2016 Women’s NCAA DI Championships. At the NCAA Championships, only the top 16 swimmers in each event scores points. Points are doubled for relay events.
California will be competing to defend their NCAA title. If they win this year, it will be their fifth national championship in program history. Despite not having Missy Franklin this season, the Golden Bears are still projected to win, although it is expected to be a very close meet.
Stanford’s depth and relay strength has them projected to be in second place going into the meet, only 23 points behind California. Virginia is sitting in third place with 313 projected points.
The projected team scores will change around a little bit once diving scores can be added in. With three diving events at the NCAA Championships, a good diver or two can make a huge impact on the outcome of the meet.
Below is a breakdown of the points awarded for each event at the NCAA Championships:
A Final Points For Individual Events
1. 20 (40 relays)
2. 17 (34 relays)
3. 16 (32 relays)
4. 15 (30 relays)
5. 14 (28 relays)
6. 13 (26 relays)
7. 12 (24 relays)
8. 11 (22 relays)
B Final Points For Individual Events
1. 9 (18 relays)
2. 7 (14 relays)
3. 6 (12 relays)
4. 5 (10 relays)
5. 4 (8 relays)
6. 3 (6 relays)
7. 2 (4 relays)
8. 1 (2 relays)
This list is based off of the NCAA’s Pre-cut psych sheet published on the morning of Tuesday, March 1st. Click here to view that psych sheet. The 2015 Women’s NCAA Championships will take place in Atlanta, GA at the Georgia Tech Campus Recreation Center on March 17th.
| Rank | Teams | Scores |
| 1 | California | 398 |
| 2 | Stanford | 375 |
| 3 | Virginia | 313 |
| 4 | Georgia | 280 |
| 5 | USC | 264.33 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 261.5 |
| 7 | Louisville | 227 |
| 8 | NC State | 192 |
| 9 | Indiana | 190 |
| 10 | Tennessee | 158.33 |
| 11 | Michigan | 156.5 |
| 12 | Texas | 142 |
| 13 | Ohio St | 94 |
| 14 | Arizona | 81.33 |
| 15 | UNC | 71 |
| 16 | Florida | 66 |
| 17 | Missouri | 63 |
| 18 | Purdue | 39 |
| 19 | UCLA | 20 |
| 20 | Virginia Tech | 20 |
| 21 | Boise St | 20 |
| 22 | UMBC | 17 |
| 23 | LSU | 15 |
| 24 | Alabama | 14 |
| 25 | Kentucky | 14 |
| 26 | Cincinnati | 12 |
| 27 | Wisconsin | 10 |
| 28 | Iowa | 9 |
| 29 | Air Force | 9 |
| 30 | Auburn | 7 |
| 31 | SMU | 6 |
| 32 | Penn St | 6 |
| 33 | Minnesota | 4 |
| 34 | EMU | 3 |
| 35 | FGCU | 3 |
| 36 | Denver | 3 |
| 37 | Oregon St | 1 |
I see that the 2015 meet was scored out early as well. It would be interesting to see how the actual results lined up for that one as a predictor for this year’s final results.
Data Geek – we’ve actually been scoring out the meet for years, even before SwimSwam existed. Here’s an analysis we did of the 2014 scoring: http://swimswam.com/comparing-the-2014-psych-sheet-scoring-predictions-to-the-2014-ncaa-championship-results/
I thought we did one for 2015 as well, but can’t track it down.
This is YOUR TIME WAHOOS!
Bring the title to Charlottesville!!!!!!!!!!
#HOOSRISING
Go Bears!
Diving – I’d rather watch two men fish…
That’s not creepy. We all learned last year that USC goes hard at conference and pays for it at NCAAs. After scoring the psych sheet they were the “favorites” to win the men’s meet last year. Cal and Texas always move way up from their psych sheet seedings. Atleast on the guys side they do.
Bama girls squeaking into top 25. Roll TIDE!!! Didn’t the previous head coach do better though the year he was fired?
Will be following the zone diving qualifier meets with interest, as the outcome of these could end up being be a difference maker. Among the schools projected in the top six above, Stanford has three top flight divers (two that have scored at NCAA’s before, and a third that just won 2 events at Pac12s this year), but it’s not apparent to me that any of the others have reason to expect scoring from their diving.
Elaine Breeden’s 200 fly and Caitlin Leverenz 200/400 IM records are all going down this year thanks to Ella Eastin & Kelsi Worrell potentially in the 2fly.