During a bit of a lull in the NCAA competition season between midseason invites and second semester dual meets, the SwimSwam statistics department has been hard at work crunching the numbers for a hypothetical NCAA Championships invite list. While plenty of fast swimming is still to come at the February and March conference championship and last chance meets assures that this list will change significantly, it’s fun nonetheless to see how the programs stack up after the invites.
Following the release of the hypothetical cut lines, we will score out the “NCAA psych sheet” as it stands to project current NCAA finish. We already covered the men, and now we check on the women.
In a bit of a surprise, there is a tie at the top of the projected qualifier list with the Tennessee Lady Vols and Cal Golden Bears both sitting at 17 projected qualifiers. The defending NCAA Champion Virginia Cavaliers sit alone in third with 13 projected qualifiers.
The current projected cut line is for all 41st ranked swimmers to qualify, with no swimmers on the 42 line projected to qualify. Similar to the men, this number is much softer than historically is invited to the NCAA Championships. If history is a reliable guide the invite number should settle somewhere in the high-30s.
List of Qualifying Teams (and # of qualifiers)
|William & Mary||1|
|Missouri St (W)||1|
|San Diego St||1|
List of Qualifying Individuals
|Alons, Kylee||NC State|
|Cundiff, Missy||William & Mary|
|Dobler, Kaitlyn||Southern Cali|
|Miller, Anna||Missouri St (W)|
|Larson, Chloe||Washington St.|
|Delgado, Anicka||Southern Cali|
|Moore, Madelyn||Northern Colo|
|Zenick, Katherine||Ohio St|
|Fulmer, Amy||Ohio St|
|Crane, Emily||Ohio St|
|Maccausland, Heather||NC State|
|Transom, Laticia-Leigh||Southern Cali|
|Berkoff, Katharine||NC State|
|Webb, Abbey||NC State|
|Ivan, Teresa||Ohio St|
|Nordin, Emma||Arizona St|
|Crush, Annabel||NC State|
|Stepanek, Chloe||Texas A&M|
|Thomas, Martina||U.S. Navy|
|Laning, Erica||Arizona St|
|Maier, Nicole||Miami (Ohio)|
|Moore, Kate||NC State|
|Tafuto, Sally||Ohio St|
|Kahler, Marlene||Southern Cali|
|Hierath, Yara||NC State|
|Travis, Chase||Virginia Tech|
|Chang, Yi Xuan||Duke|
|Geringer, Maya||Ohio St|
|Graves, Maggie||Notre Dame|
|Graves, Alyssa||Ohio St|
|Grottle, Abby||Texas A&M|
|White, Maya||Colorado St.|
|Sheridan, Calypso||Southern Cali|
|Sansores De La Fuente, Andrea||Arkansas|
|Pulido, Celia||SIUC (W)|
|Atkinson, Emma||Virginia Tech|
|Hannah, Jade||Southern Cali|
|Christman, Madelyn||Notre Dame|
|Platts, Daisy||Bowling Green|
|Bentz, Caroline||Virginia Tech|
|Schobel, Marie||Penn St|
|Afanasyeva, Kate||UNLV (W)|
|Janvier, Aela||Southern Cali|
|Kraus, Mari||South Carolina|
|Hansson, Sophie||NC State|
|Podmanikova, Andrea||NC State|
|Bach, Hannah||Ohio St|
|Thormalm, Klara||San Diego St|
|Chue, Christie||Florida Int’l|
|Panitz, Josie||Ohio St|
|Kucheran, Nina||Florida St|
|Huggins, Maddy||Florida St|
|Gyertyanffy, Sara||Florida Int’l|
|Odgers, Isabelle||Southern Cali|
|Poole, Julia||NC State|
|Mathews, Janessa||Ohio St|
|Gillilan, Coleen||Notre Dame|
|Harrington, Sydney||U.S. Navy|
|Hussey, Stephanie||Florida Int’l|
|Theall, Olivia||Texas A&M|
|Collins, Paige||South Carolina|
|Van Berkom, Megan||Minnesota|
|Arens, Abby||NC State|
|Thomas, Luciana||Notre Dame|
|Campbell, McKenzie||Georgia Tech|
|Turner, Makenna||Southern Cali|
|Deuel, Megan||Notre Dame|
|Foelske, JadÃ©||Arizona St|
|Romano, Kristen||Ohio St|
|Metzler, Anna||New Hampshire|
|Trace, Katie||Ohio St|
|Sheble, Grace||NC State|
|Rice, Anna Havens||Kentucky|
|Batchelor, Molly||Arizona St|
First five alternates
|Herkle, Kim Emely||Louisville|
|Tyler, Ali||George Mason|
A few other interesting notes:
- Alabama, which is in Margo Geer’s first year as head coach, sits in a five-way tie for the 4th most qualifiers. They are joined by Michigan, NC State, Ohio State and Louisville. The Crimson Tide finished in 5th at last year’s NCAAs with 266 points, just 24 points behind 4th place Cal.
- Texas, which finished 3rd at last year’s NCAA Championships and only 9.5 points out of second, sits in a tie with Northwestern for the 16th-most qualifiers with 7. Despite the relatively small squad, the Longhorns are right on track with last year’s 3rd place squad, which only qualified 8 individual swimmers to NCAAs.
- Auburn, in head coach Ryan Wochomurka’s first year, currently has 6 swimmers projected to make the cut. Despite not scoring at NCAAs last year, Auburn had 8 individual swimmers at the meet.
- Stanford, which won three consecutive NCAA titles from 2017-2019, sits in a tie with conference rival USC with 9 projected qualifiers, 14th most in the country. Last year Stanford finished 9th with 159 points, the lowest finish of Greg Meehan’s tenure on The Farm. With the return of Canadian Olympian Taylor Ruck and a star-studded freshman class the Cardinal seem poised to shoot up the team standings this year, but will have some work to do in the spring to make up the qualifier gap.
- Despite head coach Mike Litzinger abruptly resigning in October, Notre Dame sits in a tie for 20th with Minnesota and Arkansas with 5 projected individual NCAA qualifiers. That is essentially in line with last year’s team, which sent 6 individual swimmers to NCAA’s, resulting in a 29th place finish with 12 points.
I wonder how the Bama diving coach leaving mid season will impact their diving. Potential to score some points.
The biggest swim story of the year and the last decade is one that I’m too apprehensive to mention.
Woo-hoo Kailyn Winter!!!
ladyvol strategy of loading up with foreigners seems to be helping
How many foreigners are on the list out of 17 ????
The top swimmers are non-American mercenaries.
Here comes the northwestern hate…
lol is this a thing? Or are you trying to meme yourselves?
NW has the same amount of qualifiers as Texas and you don’t take them seriously? Soapy, maybe instead of “hate“, the better word to use would have been “complete disrespect.”
same amount of qualifiers but not the same quality of qualifiers
Lady Vols looking great at mid-year as they typically do…if only NCAAs were in November. Just hope they can hang on better than they usually do.
It sure look like Rob Collins is having a major impact on Tennessee swimming this year!
Who got bumped off the 200, 500 and 1650 for *Lia Thomas*?????
Lia is abiding by NCAA guidelines.
All of the qualifiers ranked 41 “bumped” 42 so let’s not go there
This is a list of all A time qualifiers and hypothetical B time qualifiers. No one got wrongly bumped.
Let’s relax on the hate for Lia. She is following the rules set in place by the NCAA.
If anything.. Direct your fumes directly at the NCAA via emails and letters and calls. Not anonymously on a chat forum via SwimSwam
How high can Penn finish simply by Thomas making the top 3 in those three events (and realistically could win 2 of the 3)?
Top 10 team finish possible?
You need big relay points to be a top 10 team
Not even close
Stanford hate incoming?
I do not understand the Meehan hate… are peeps blaming SWS plateaus on his overtraining?
Sometimes less is better. See Texas last year. After you get past the 10th best swimmer there is not much if any points to be gained. Its all about what the core group can do and how strong they are across the board in relays.