Projecting the Cut-Line for the 2016 Women’s NCAA Championships

It’s that time again, where the nerdiest of the swim nerds (aka, SwimSwam) spends hours of time to learn the fates of NCAA qualifiers 12 hours before they’re officially released by the NCAA.

Editor’s Note: to run the numbers, we’ve had to type the entry lists entirely into a spreadsheet by hand. We’ve done several checks to validate this data, but the ultimate check is when the invite lists are released, which is expected to be Wednesday. If you would like to double-check our work, please email [email protected]

The Long Story

Updated after correcting errors

Based on our math (and please email [email protected] if you would like to volunteer to check our math), the cut line will fall at almost exactly in the same spot as last year: everyone ranked 39th or better in their events qualifies for NCAA’s, which pushes the number to 279.

After divers, there are 281 spots left for individual swimmer entries, which means 2 swimmers off of the “40 line” get invited. The way that tie is broken is by taking each swimmer’s time and comparing it to the NCAA Championship (not overall) record, and the swim closest to the record, by percentage, gets an invite.

The two winners of that tie-breaker are Yale’s Bella Hindley and Duke’s Verity Abel. The rest of the swimmers on the list below will go into the alternate list, though there has been several scratches over the last few years so there’s a good shot at the top swimmers on that list earning invites.

Line Swimmer Team Event Entry Time Championship Record Percentage
40 Bella Hindley Yale 50 free 22.35 21.27 95.1677852%
40 Verity Abel Duke 1650 free 16:17.89 15:27.84 94.8818374%
40 Arlyn Upshaw UCLA 200 fly 1:57.08 1:50.98 94.7898873%
40 Maddy Zimmerman Yale 100 fly 52.81 49.81 94.3192577%
40 Mia Schachter Tulane 100 breast 1:00.68 57.23 94.3144364%
40 Sam Lisy Indiana 400 IM 4:11.27 3:56.54 94.1377801%
40 Kenzie Margroum US Navy 200 free 1:45.87 1:39.10 93.6053651%
40 Kendal Casey Kentucky Already qualified
40 Gia Dalesandro Indiana Already qualified

Editor’s Note: Though Texas A&M’s Claire Brandt shows on the pre-selection sheets as being on the 40th line, she’s actually tied for 39th-place in the 200 back, and thus qualifies for NCAAs based on that criteria.

The Short Story

If the above nuance is too complicated, it’s as simple as this: any swimmer on the pre-selection sheet who is ranked 39th or better in an event. Bella Hindley of Yale and Verity Abel of Duke so far are the only swimmers who earn invites from the 40 line. Check out the full list of invited swimmers below.

Swimmer Team
Genevieve Miller Air Force
Luka Szynal Akron
Mia Nonnenberg Alabama
Bridget Blood Alabama
Emma Saunders Alabama
Marian Yurchishin Alabama
Annie Ochitwa Arizona
Katrina Konopka Arizona
Bonnie Brandon Arizona
Emma Schoettmer Arizona
Mackenzie Rumrill Arizona
Taylor Garcia Arizona
Taylor Schick Arizona
Paige Kremer Arizona
Sara Borendame Arizona
Anna Mayfield Arkansas
Maddie Monroe Arkansas
Marlies Burns ASU
Annie Lazor Auburn
Natasha Lloyd Auburn
Bailey Nero Auburn
Ashton Ellzey Auburn
Caroline Baddock Auburn
Jillian Vitarius Auburn
Zoe Thatcher Auburn
Aly Tetzloff Auburn
Ashley Neidigh Auburn
Sarah Reynolds Auburn
Eric Falconer Auburn
Emma Chard Boise St
Sam Wicks Boise St
Brittany Aoyama Boise St
Daniela Carrillo Bowling Green
Megan Burns Buffalo
Farida Osman California
Amy Bilquist California
Kathleen Baker California
Rachel Bootsma California
Noemie Thomas California
Kelly Naze California
Celina Li California
Elizabeth Pelton California
Kristen Vredeveld California
Marina Garcia Urzainqui California
Valerie Hull California
Rachael Acker California
Jacqueline Keire Cincinnati
Amanda Sanders Denver
Bailey Andison Denver
Johanna Ross Denver
Morgan McCormick Denver
Maddie Myers Denver
Rachel Bernhardt Drexel
Maddie Rosch Duke
Leah Goldman Duke
Isabella Paez Duke
Verity Abel Duke
Delaney Duncan EMU
Elise Haan FGCU
Fanny Teijonsalo FGCU
Katie Latham FGCU
Naomi Ruele FIU
Natalie Hinds Florida
Jessica Thielmann Florida
Ashlee Linn Florida
Taylor Katz Florida
Georgia-Mae Hohmann Florida
Hannah Burns Florida
Autumn Finke Florida
Alyssa Yambor-Maul Florida
Amelia Maughan Florida
Ugne Mazutaityte Fresno State
Megan Brown FSU
Summer Finke FSU
Brittany MacLean Georgia
Hali Flickinger Georgia
Olivia Smoliga Georgia
Megan Kingsley Georgia
Emily Cameron Georgia
Meaghan Raab Georgia
Kylie Stewart Georgia
Annie Zhu Georgia
Stephanie Peters Georgia
Caitlin Casazza Georgia
Shauna Lee Georgia
Rachel Zilinskas Georgia
Sonia Wang Harvard
Lilly King Indiana
Miranda Tucker Indiana
Haley Lips Indiana
Gia Dalesandro Indiana
Kennedy Goss Indiana
Marie Chamberlain Indiana
Stephanie Marchuk Indiana
Bailey Pressey Indiana
Emma Sougstad Iowa
Chelsie Miller Kansas
Danielle Galyer Kentucky
Geena Freriks Kentucky
Kendra Crew Kentucky
Bridgette Alexander Kentucky
Kendal Casey Kentucky
Kathryn Painter Kentucky
Kelsi Worrell Louisville
Mallory Comerford Louisville
Andee Cottrell Louisville
Rachel Bradford-Feldman Louisville
Marah Pugh Louisville
Andrea Kneppers Louisville
Abbie Houck Louisville
Alina Kendzior Louisville
Kara Kopcso LSU
Colleen O’Neill LSU
Leah Troskot LSU
Danielle Stirrat LSU
Taryn Mackenzie LSU
Angela Algee Miami (FL)
Siobhan Haughey Michigan
Rose Bi Michigan
Gillian Ryan Michigan
Clara Smiddy Michigan
Ali Deloof Michigan
Emily Kopas Michigan
Marni Oldershaw Michigan
Becca Postoll Michigan
Gabby Deloof Michigan
Sam Harding Minnesota
Brooke Zeiger Minnesota
Lauren Votava Minnesota
Rachel Munson Minnesota
Danielle Nack Minnesota
Breanne Siwicki Minnesota
Katharine Ross Missouri
Abby Duncan Missouri
Sharli Brady Missouri
Nadine Laemmler Missouri
Hannah Stevens Missouri
Anna Patterson Missouri
Kira Zubar Missouri
Hannah Moore NC State
Alexia Zevnik NC State
Riki Bonnema NC State
Rachel Muller NC State
Natalie Labonge NC State
Kayla Brumbaum NC State
Courtney Caldwell NC State
Ashlyn Koletic NC State
Krista Duffield NC State
Michelle Craddock NC State
Yawen Li Nevada
Ella Moynihan Notre Dame
Li Zhesi Ohio St
Lindsey Clary Ohio St
Taylor Vargo Ohio St
Amy Bopp Ohio St
Samantha Harrison Oregon St
Kenna Ramey Pacific
Casey Francis Penn St
Alyson Ackman Penn St
Melissa Rodriguez Penn St
Katie Rowe Penn St
Katelyn Sowinski Penn St
Kaleigh Ritter Pitt
Amanda Richey Pitt
Emily Fogle Purdue
Allie Davis Purdue
Kaersten Meitz Purdue
Emmy Rawson Purdue
Francesca Stoppa Rutgers
Taylor Johnson SDSU
Marne Erasmus SMU
Tara-Lynn Nicholas SMU
Taylor Worrell South Carolina
Emma Barksdale South Carolina
Ella Eastin Stanford
Lia Neal Stanford
Sarah Haase Stanford
Ally Howe Stanford
Janet Hu Stanford
Lindsey Engel Stanford
Nicole Stafford Stanford
Kim Williams Stanford
Leah Stevens Stanford
Kira Toussaint Tennessee
Maddy Banic Tennessee
Lauren Driscoll Tennessee
Faith Johnson Tennessee
Amanda Carner Tennessee
Maddy Tegner Tennessee
Colleen Callahan Tennessee
Harper Bruens Tennessee
Mary Griffith Tennessee
Michelle Cefal Tennessee
Morgan Dickson Tennessee
Anna Demonte Tennessee
Micah Bohon Tennessee
Madisyn Cox Texas
Tasija Karosas Texas
Rebecca Millard Texas
Joanna Evans Texas
Quinn Carrozza Texas
Jordan Surhoff Texas
Remedy Rule Texas
Olivia Anderson Texas
Mimi Schneider Texas
Brooke Hansen Texas
Bethany Galat Texas A&M
Sarah Gibson Texas A&M
Lisa Bratton Texas A&M
Beryl Gastaldello Texas A&M
Sydney Pickrem Texas A&M
Jorie Caneta Texas A&M
Esther Gonzalez Medina Texas A&M
Kristin Malone Texas A&M
Claire Rasmus Texas A&M
Sycerika McMahon Texas A&M
Laura Norman Texas A&M
Caitlynn Moon Texas A&M
Claire Brandt Texas A&M
Sammy Richart Toledo
Jenna Van Camp Towson
Hilvy Cheung UC Davis
Linnea Mack UCLA
Katie Grover UCLA
Madison White UCLA
Caroline McTaggart UCLA
Emma Schanz UCLA
Katie Kinnear UCLA
Emily Escobedo UMBC
Hellen Moffitt UNC
Sarah Koucheki UNC
Allyn Hardesty UNC
Caroline Baldwin UNC
Emma Nunn UNC
Sarah Hitchens UNC
Lauren Earp UNC
Abby Fisher UNC
Annie Harrison UNC
Lina Rathsack UNLV
Lauren Barber US Navy
Kirsten Vose USC
Kendyl Stewart USC
Kasia Wilk USC
Anika Apostalon USC
Chelsea Chenault USC
Elizabeth Stinson USC
Riley Scott USC
Allie Wooden USC
Lucy Worrall USC
Hannah Weiss USC
Henriette Stenkvist USC
Hanni Leach USC
Maddie Wright USC
Stina Colleou Utah
Genevieve Robertson Utah
Leah Smith Virginia
Courtney Bartholomew Virginia
Laura Simon Virginia
Kaitlyn Jones Virginia
Hanne Borgersen Virginia
Megan Moroney Virginia
Jen Marrkand Virginia
Ellen Thomas Virginia
Caitlin Cooper Virginia
Vivian Tafuto Virginia
Eryn Eddy Virginia
Shannon Rauth Virginia
Klaudia Nazieblo Virginia Tech
Weronika Paluszek Virginia Tech
Maggie Gruber Virginia Tech
Jessica Hespeler Virginia Tech
Danielle Valley Wisconsin
Chase Kinney Wisconsin
Dana Grindall Wisconsin
Jenny Holtzen Wisconsin
Maria Carlson Wisconsin
Maria Harutjunjan Wyoming
Emily Ridout Wyoming
Eva Fabian Yale
Cailley Silbert Yale
Bella Hindley Yale

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4 years ago

Amanda Sanders from Denver is listed twice, spelled two different ways.

4 years ago

Not sure it matters in your math, but on your list of qualifiers, you have Amanda Sanders (Denver) twice – once mis-spelled.

4 years ago

You have Katie Grover twice.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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