NCAA November/December Performance: Who is Faster So Far?

Mid-season invite season has come to a close, so it’s time to take a look at how teams are doing compared to last year.

Some background information:

To get an idea of team’s performance over the last month or so I compared swimmer’s best times from December or the last three weeks of November this season to their best times during the same period last season. I limited comparisons to events that swimmers had a time in at their conference meet last year or at nationals. This was meant to limit comparisons to swimmer’s primary events.

An example data point. Lilly King of Indiana was a 2:03.6 in her 200 breast at the IU Invite this year. Last year at the Purdue Invite she was 2:10.99. This is a nationals event for her. In seconds the time comparison is (123.6-130.99)/130.99=-5.6%. King was 5.6% faster in her 200 breast this year at her invite.

The goal is to compare mid season rest meet times to mid season rest times. For the most part, that’s what it does, but in some edge cases there can be weird results. For example, TCU went to the Texas Invite last winter. This winter they only had a dual with Texas A&M on their schedule the last few weeks. As a result, their women added an average of 5.8% to their times and the men added an average of 4.3%. If it weren’t for the schedule change, those would be alarming time adds, but given the circumstances, it’s likely no big deal (on the other hand, feel free to question the decision to forgo a mid-season rest meet all you like).

Some teams that are noticeably faster or slower than last year may have taken more or less rest for their mid season meet. It’s also possible that teams are just better or worse than they were last year. A big time difference invites the question, “what was different this season?” There are 191 D1 women’s teams and 125 men’s teams in the data below, so I don’t have time to analyse them all individually, but keep context in mind when you’re looking at the data for your favorite team/rivals.

Analysis

With all that said, what does the data look like? On average the men dropped .3% from their times on 3956 data points (median .3% faster, standard deviation, 1.9%). On average the women dropped .1% on 6433 data points (median .1% faster, standard deviation 2.0%).

Probably the best performing team overall, men and women was GW. Their men dropped an average of 2.5% (26 times) and their women dropped an average of 3.3% (43 times). Both teams saw over 90% of their swims faster than last year. GW attended the Magnus Cup Invite last November and the Queens Fall Frenzy this year. Either something changed in how they rested or they had an outstanding meet this year top to bottom.

Of the top 10 teams, the top performing team was the Indiana women who dropped an average of 1.1% (37 swims). Their mid-season meet went from Purdue to their home pool this year. Perhaps the home field advantage helped.

Of the big three men’s teams, Cal (.6% faster, 47 swims) and Indiana (.5% faster 30 swims) dropped decent time, and Texas (0.0% faster, 47 swims) were very similar to where they were last year.

The women’s favorite Stanford were an average of .3% slower than at this point last year. Perhaps having their mid-season meet in the eastern time zone at Ohio State instead of the central time zone at Texas A&M where they competed last year had some effect.

A good team average doesn’t rule out the possibility that swimmers on that team had a bad meet. Or that swimmers on an overall poor performing team swam great. For example, the Cal women dropped an average of .3%, a good result, but Ali Harrison added 4.6% to her 200 breast (2:10.92->2:16.93). Stanford added an average of .3%, but Brooke Stenstrom dropped 3.7% from her 50 free time from last winter (24.49->23.59)

Top 10 Team’s Performance

Negative is faster, positive is slower

All teams in the large table below

Women       Men      
Team Average Change # of Swims % Faster than Last November/December Team Average Change # of Swims % Faster than Last November/December
Stanford 0.3% 35 37% California -0.6% 47 70%
California -0.3% 49 59% Texas 0.0% 47 53%
Michigan 0.0% 47 60% Indiana -0.5% 30 63%
Texas 0.1% 55 44% NC State -0.1% 50 52%
Louisville 0.4% 44 36% Stanford -0.3% 46 63%
Texas A&M -0.2% 42 55% Michigan -0.6% 43 60%
Indiana -1.1% 37 81% Louisville -0.2% 34 53%
Virginia -0.5% 39 69% USC -0.4% 29 69%
Tennessee -0.9% 42 62% Florida -0.4% 27 67%
USC -0.4% 47 68% Georgia -0.5% 37 59%

All Teams

negative is faster, positive is slower

Women       Men      
Team Average Change Number % Faster than Last November/December Team Average Change Number % Faster than Last November/December
New Hampshire -3.9% 16 100% GWU -2.5% 26 92%
GWU -3.3% 43 91% Eastern Ill -2.5% 21 86%
Indiana State -2.7% 42 100% Rider -2.2% 30 90%
Saint Peters -2.2% 2 50% Columbia -2.1% 39 90%
Davidson -1.7% 31 81% Incarnate Word -1.8% 29 83%
Ohio -1.4% 41 73% Purdue -1.7% 37 89%
St. Francis Pa. -1.4% 42 67% Miami Ohio -1.7% 39 79%
Iona Coll -1.3% 38 79% Saint Peters -1.6% 19 95%
Buffalo -1.3% 36 78% Iona Coll -1.4% 30 83%
Holy Cross -1.2% 19 68% St. Francis -1.4% 6 83%
Eastern Mich -1.2% 41 80% East Carolina -1.3% 25 76%
Penn St -1.1% 19 79% Bryant U -1.3% 24 83%
LIU Brooklyn -1.1% 16 75% Fla Atlantic -1.3% 22 86%
Indiana -1.1% 37 81% Brigham Young -1.3% 24 67%
Boise St -1.1% 57 77% St. Bonaventure -1.2% 30 70%
IUPUI -1.1% 41 71% SMU -1.2% 29 66%
West Virginia -1.0% 28 79% Penn St -1.2% 33 79%
Monmouth -0.9% 21 71% Utah -1.2% 26 77%
Colgate -0.9% 23 70% Monmouth -1.2% 18 67%
Tennessee -0.9% 42 62% Towson -1.2% 40 80%
Old Dominion -0.9% 19 74% Davidson -1.2% 47 72%
Washington St. -0.9% 17 82% Denver -1.1% 40 78%
Richmond -0.9% 21 57% LSU -1.1% 28 71%
Butler -0.9% 50 64% Kentucky -1.1% 46 85%
Canisius -0.8% 13 69% Wisconsin -1.0% 37 73%
Illinois -0.8% 28 79% Seattle U -1.0% 29 72%
Utah -0.8% 52 62% Texas A&M -0.9% 35 69%
Iowa State -0.8% 41 66% Tennessee -0.9% 36 67%
Incarnate Word -0.7% 22 73% Pittsburgh -0.8% 34 68%
UNC Asheville -0.7% 35 74% Grand Canyon -0.8% 30 63%
Towson -0.7% 40 73% Holy Cross -0.8% 21 62%
Ark.-Little Rock -0.7% 42 62% Notre Dame -0.8% 32 69%
Eastern Ill -0.7% 19 68% Arizona -0.7% 41 73%
Grand Canyon -0.7% 12 75% West Virginia -0.7% 44 68%
Ball State -0.7% 33 61% St. Louis -0.7% 34 71%
Pacific -0.6% 29 59% Michigan -0.6% 43 60%
Fresno State -0.6% 45 67% California -0.6% 47 70%
NC State -0.6% 47 83% Boston College -0.6% 40 70%
Duke -0.6% 21 81% UMBC -0.6% 38 66%
Fairfield -0.6% 73 60% Evansville -0.6% 36 56%
Oregon St -0.6% 21 62% UCSB -0.5% 37 68%
Northwestern -0.6% 32 72% South Dakota -0.5% 28 61%
Hawaii -0.6% 30 67% Loyola MD -0.5% 47 64%
Marist -0.6% 20 60% Indiana -0.5% 30 63%
Fordham -0.5% 41 63% Xavier -0.5% 40 65%
Virginia -0.5% 39 69% Wis.- Milwaukee -0.5% 43 63%
North Texas -0.5% 27 70% Georgia -0.5% 37 59%
Cincinnati -0.5% 36 72% Northwestern -0.4% 40 60%
Northern Iowa -0.5% 43 63% Canisius -0.4% 20 65%
Auburn -0.5% 35 63% Florida -0.4% 27 67%
San Diego St -0.5% 39 54% Southern Cali -0.4% 29 69%
Xavier -0.5% 51 61% Mt St Marys -0.4% 34 56%
LSU -0.5% 45 62% La Salle -0.4% 24 67%
Nevada -0.5% 24 75% Missouri -0.4% 39 62%
New Mexico St -0.5% 41 63% Cal Poly -0.4% 27 48%
Florida Intl -0.5% 34 47% Virginia -0.3% 47 60%
Providence -0.5% 39 54% Stanford -0.3% 46 63%
SMU -0.4% 29 62% Cincinnati -0.3% 34 53%
Wisconsin -0.4% 52 65% CSUB -0.3% 48 50%
Rhode Island -0.4% 33 58% Yale -0.3% 33 55%
Rider -0.4% 28 71% Cleveland St -0.3% 37 68%
Florida Gulf -0.4% 42 57% Dartmouth -0.3% 21 57%
Southern Cali -0.4% 47 68% Harvard -0.3% 25 60%
Miami Ohio -0.4% 44 59% NJIT -0.3% 24 63%
Brigham Young -0.4% 32 66% IUPUI -0.2% 37 46%
Boston U -0.3% 33 52% Howard -0.2% 26 58%
UMBC -0.3% 42 55% Hawaii -0.2% 36 61%
Miami FL -0.3% 26 58% Providence -0.2% 30 57%
Houston -0.3% 45 69% Louisville -0.2% 34 53%
California -0.3% 49 59% Virginia Tech -0.2% 34 50%
Wyoming -0.3% 37 54% Villanova -0.2% 33 58%
Bryant U -0.3% 38 66% Boston U -0.2% 31 48%
Western Ill -0.3% 19 63% U.S. Navy -0.2% 64 59%
Notre Dame -0.3% 45 62% Missouri St. -0.2% 30 50%
Northern Ariz -0.2% 41 54% Seton Hall -0.2% 18 44%
Kansas -0.2% 40 60% Maine -0.1% 43 53%
Villanova -0.2% 34 56% NC State -0.1% 50 52%
Missouri St -0.2% 32 63% Duke -0.1% 27 63%
Howard -0.2% 6 33% Army -0.1% 29 62%
Niagara -0.2% 18 50% George Mason -0.1% 26 54%
South Carolina -0.2% 23 48% Georgia Tech -0.1% 30 53%
Duquesne -0.2% 42 50% Arizona St 0.0% 25 52%
Texas A&M -0.2% 42 55% Texas 0.0% 47 53%
CSUB -0.2% 43 47% Pacific 0.0% 34 59%
Fla Atlantic -0.2% 39 51% Michigan St 0.0% 36 58%
Purdue -0.1% 46 50% Oakland 0.1% 28 43%
St. Louis -0.1% 28 57% Iowa 0.1% 40 58%
Florida -0.1% 40 58% Florida St 0.1% 26 46%
Arkansas -0.1% 27 59% Marist 0.1% 37 51%
UC Davis -0.1% 36 58% Penn 0.1% 34 59%
UN Omaha -0.1% 33 48% Bucknell 0.1% 36 58%
Loyola MD -0.1% 49 41% Western Ill 0.1% 20 55%
St. Francis -0.1% 17 59% Valparaiso 0.2% 25 40%
Missouri -0.1% 39 54% Wis.- Green Bay 0.2% 31 52%
UCSB -0.1% 69 55% Alabama 0.2% 31 52%
Michigan 0.0% 47 60% Air Force 0.2% 25 48%
Delaware 0.0% 40 45% American 0.2% 12 42%
Tulane 0.0% 36 53% Illinois-Chicago 0.2% 34 50%
Akron 0.0% 39 46% Ball State 0.2% 29 52%
Penn 0.0% 30 50% Delaware 0.2% 26 42%
Toledo 0.0% 26 42% Auburn 0.2% 29 41%
Campbell 0.0% 40 48% Binghamton 0.2% 22 41%
Boston College 0.0% 43 44% Cornell 0.3% 35 31%
East Carolina 0.0% 10 50% UNC Wilmington 0.3% 40 45%
Iowa 0.0% 25 52% South Dakota St 0.3% 42 43%
Army 0.0% 35 54% SIUC 0.4% 34 41%
Arizona 0.0% 34 59% Georgetown 0.4% 36 31%
South Dakota 0.0% 30 53% Ohio St 0.4% 31 35%
Minnesota 0.1% 47 47% Massachusetts 0.4% 31 42%
Siena 0.1% 30 40% Wyoming 0.5% 26 31%
Ohio St 0.1% 44 55% Connecticut 0.5% 26 42%
North Florida 0.1% 29 41% Niagara 0.6% 27 30%
Northeastern 0.1% 40 43% South Carolina 0.6% 22 41%
Texas 0.1% 55 44% Drexel 0.6% 49 37%
Evansville 0.1% 44 48% Fairfield 0.6% 30 43%
Dartmouth 0.2% 29 41% UNC 0.8% 30 37%
Cleveland St 0.2% 38 37% William & Mary 0.8% 42 29%
Liberty 0.2% 37 35% Minnesota 0.9% 40 25%
George Mason 0.2% 31 45% Old Dominion 0.9% 8 38%
La Salle 0.2% 22 45% UNLV 0.9% 8 25%
Arizona St 0.2% 35 54% Manhattan 1.1% 9 11%
Kentucky 0.2% 39 41% Fordham 1.2% 26 27%
Brown 0.2% 38 37% Princeton 1.4% 19 16%
Denver 0.2% 39 49% Gardner-Webb 1.7% 27 19%
Cal Poly 0.2% 48 42% TCU 4.4% 11 0%
Georgia 0.3% 29 34%
San Jose St 0.3% 40 40%
Idaho 0.3% 36 44%
Air Force 0.3% 33 45%
Stanford 0.3% 35 37%
Valparaiso 0.3% 15 33%
Marshall 0.3% 40 38%
U.S. Navy 0.3% 61 48%
Drexel 0.3% 35 49%
William & Mary 0.3% 25 48%
Michigan St 0.3% 29 34%
American 0.3% 24 38%
Yale 0.3% 31 45%
Pittsburgh 0.3% 37 54%
Binghamton 0.3% 23 48%
Seton Hall 0.3% 39 51%
UCLA 0.4% 15 13%
New Mexico 0.4% 19 37%
UNLV 0.4% 25 32%
Bowling Green 0.4% 36 36%
Connecticut 0.4% 34 32%
James Madison 0.4% 21 52%
Oakland 0.4% 39 38%
Louisville 0.4% 44 36%
Princeton 0.4% 33 52%
SIUC 0.4% 39 44%
Massachusetts 0.4% 38 39%
Harvard 0.4% 26 31%
Wis.- Milwaukee 0.5% 24 38%
Loy. Marymount 0.5% 44 36%
St. Bonaventure 0.5% 10 50%
Alabama 0.5% 31 23%
Florida St 0.6% 27 37%
Cornell 0.6% 30 37%
Columbia 0.6% 35 34%
Georgia Tech 0.6% 34 29%
UNC Wilmington 0.6% 36 33%
Mt St Marys 0.7% 23 39%
Maine 0.7% 55 44%
GA Southern 0.7% 41 24%
Georgetown 0.8% 28 29%
UNC 0.8% 32 38%
Lehigh 0.8% 2 0%
Sacred Heart 0.8% 37 38%
Vanderbilt 0.8% 38 26%
Colorado St. 0.8% 23 35%
Rice 0.8% 35 31%
Seattle U 0.8% 26 35%
Rutgers 0.9% 29 41%
Bucknell 0.9% 45 38%
Wis.- Green Bay 0.9% 23 30%
Illinois-Chicago 0.9% 35 34%
Nebraska 0.9% 56 23%
Virginia Tech 1.0% 30 27%
San Diego 1.0% 49 37%
South Dakota St 1.1% 40 25%
Pepperdine 1.1% 23 17%
Illinois St 1.2% 41 20%
Wagner 1.2% 51 27%
Youngstown St 1.7% 27 15%
Northern Colo 1.8% 17 24%
Manhattan 2.0% 16 25%
Vermont 2.6% 31 19%
Gardner-Webb 3.6% 33 0%
Central Conn St 4.5% 5 0%
TCU 5.8% 14 0%

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Anonymous

An indication of teams with a head coach change prior to the start of the season could be interesting.

We’re actually working on a whole separate article on just that topic.

PVSFree

GW had a head coaching change, it’s likely they had a different rest schedule than they did last year

Dcswim

Same with TCU

PVSFree

Funny enough, the head coach of GW last season went to TCU. I guess he just doesn’t rest midseason

Dcswim

It looks like TCU didn’t even have a midseason meet. All their times are from dual meets and the September invite they went to. It looks like they might be on the top end of the chart come March

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