2025 World Championships
- July 27 – August 3, 2025 (pool swimming)
- Singapore, Singapore
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- LCM (50m)
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We’re through two days of racing at the 2025 World Championships in Singapore, and although we’ve only seen a handful of individual finals and one relay per gender, we still have plenty of data points to give us an outlook on the medley relays coming later in the meet.
WOMEN’S BREAKDOWN
After the U.S. women won gold in dominant fashion at the Paris Olympics, smashing the world record in 3:49.63 and beating the runner-up Australians by nearly three and a half seconds, they came in as overwhelming favorites, and despite a turbulent start to the meet, that hasn’t changed.
We’ve now seen the final of the women’s 100 fly, the semis of the women’s 100 back and 100 breast, and the 4×100 free relay to give us a bunch of numbers to dive into.
The Americans had some surprises on the opening day as Torri Huske dropped the 100 fly to focus on the relay, while Gretchen Walsh was taken off the relay squad mid-session with the 100 fly already on her plate—presumably both dealing with the illness going through the U.S. team.
However, Walsh appears to be back on top form after her dominant win in the 100 fly on Monday, winning the world title and narrowly missing the world record. Her swim alone distances the U.S. from the rest of the field in a theoretical medley relay add-up, but their at the top elsewhere as well with Regan Smith and Kate Douglass claiming the top seeds heading into the final of their respective 100-meter events.
U.S. Team Add-Ups
| USA | USA |
| Smith – 58.21 | Smith – 58.21 |
| Douglass – 1:05.49 | King – 1:06.26 |
| Walsh – 54.73 | Walsh – 54.73 |
| Huske – 52.88 | Douglass – 51.90 |
| 3:51.31 | 3:51.10 |
Using Douglass on breast and Huske’s split from the 4×100 free relay gives the U.S. a time of 3:51.31, while if we move Douglass to free—she had the fastest split for the U.S. on the relay—and throw Lilly King on breast, they come out with a quicker time by just over two-tenths in 3:51.10.
Presumably, both Huske and King are capable of going faster at the end of the meet, with both being hit by the stomach illness, so it remains to be seen which route the U.S. goes here, with Douglass on breast and Huske on free being the most likely scenario. If Douglass were to manage a gold medal victory (or even a medal) in the 100 breast, there’s no doubt she would be swimming the second leg. The coaches could also opt to send out King on a high note in the final race of her career, however.
Other Medal Contenders
| AUS | CHN | NAB | CAN |
| McKeown – 58.44 | Peng – 59.18 | Gaifutdinova – 59.93 | Masse – 58.66 |
| Ramsay – 1:07.23 | Tang – 1:05.87 | Chikunova – 1:05.97 | Lepage – 1:07.35 |
| Perkins – 56.19 | Zhang – 56.47 | Klepikova – 56.42 | McIntosh – 57.19** |
| Harris – 51.87 | Wu – 52.94 | Trofimova – 53.27* | Ruck – 53.37 |
| 3:53.73 | 3:54.46 | 3:55.59 | 3:56.57 |
*For swimmers who led off the 4×100 free relay, half a second was taken off their time to level the playing field with flying splits.
**For swimmers who didn’t race the event in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used.
The Australians look strong outside of the breaststroke leg as usual, though we can expect either Ella Ramsay or Sienna Toohey to be faster than Ramsay’s time from the individual prelims (1:07.23), making them the frontrunners for silver.
China has a well-rounded team that puts them in a position for the podium, with Tang Qianting capable of going over a second quicker on breaststroke.
The Russian Neutral Athletes ‘B’ team also has no real weak leg, with strengths on breast and fly, while the Canadian team could be upgraded even further if Summer McIntosh swims fly, as her listed time is from May 2024 and she took out her 200 fly textile record swim last month in 58.58.
Other Final Threats
| GER | ITA | GBR | FRA |
| Seidel – 1:00.64** | Gastaldi – 1:01.20 | Cox – 59.95** | Moluh – 59.35 |
| Elendt – 1:06.01 | Bottazzo – 1:05.61 | Evans – 1:07.04 | Duhamel – 1:08.14** |
| Kohler – 56.57 | Cocconcelli – 57.94 | Macinnes – 57.67 | Ressencourt – 58.52 |
| Holt – 53.86 | Curtis – 52.79* | Anderson – 53.59*** | Wattel – 52.97 |
| 3:57.08 | 3:57.54 | 3:58.25 | 3:58.98 |
*For swimmers who led off the 4×100 free relay, half a second was taken off their time to level the playing field with flying splits.
**For swimmers who didn’t race the event in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used.
***For swimmers who didn’t race the free relay in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used with half a second taken off.
Rough math tells us these are the next four countries who should be vying for a top eight finish at the end of the meet, though other squads such as Poland and the Netherlands could be in the hunt—the Dutch may have to use their best backstroker and freestyler, Marrit Steenbergen, on breast due to Tes Schouten‘s withdrawal, which hinders them greatly.
Italy is solid but missing a sub-1:00 backstroke leg, while the Brits (and Germany) didn’t have anyone in the 100 back and Angharad Evans had an off swim in the 100 breast prelims.
MEN’S BREAKDOWN
The men’s field wasn’t as clear-cut as the women’s coming into the meet. The Americans have been historically dominant, but recently, we’ve seen them upended by Italy (2022 Worlds) and China (2024 Olympics), while the Russian team claimed victory at the Short Course World Championships last December.
For the men, we’ve only seen the final of the 100 breast, the semis of the 100 back, and the 4×100 free relay. Since we haven’t seen any rounds of the 100 fly, we’re simply using the entry times for the World Championships here.
Gold Medal Contenders
| CHN | ITA | FRA | USA | NAB |
| Xu – 53.14 | Ceccon – 52.35 | Ndoye-Brouard – 52.47 | Janton – 53.87 |
Kolesnikov – 52.26
|
| Qin – 58.23 | Martinenghi – 58.58 | Marchand – 59.95** | Matheny – 59.15 | Prigoda – 59.36 |
| Chen – 51.03 | Burdisso – 51.55 | Grousset – 50.11 | Casas – 50.51 | Minakov – 50.82 |
| Pan – 46.63 | D’Ambrosio – 47.28* | le Goff – 47.55 | Alexy – 46.78* | Girev – 47.90 |
| 3:29.03 | 3:29.76 | 3:30.08 | 3:30.31 | 3:30.34 |
*For swimmers who led off the 4×100 free relay, half a second was taken off their time to level the playing field with flying splits.
Despite Xu Jiayu missing the 100 back final and Pan Zhanle going slower than his flat-start world record on the anchor leg of the 4×100 free relay, China still stands above the rest based on these times.
Qin Haiyang being on form is critical for them, and given he split sub-58 in Paris when he missed the medals in the 100 breast, the fact that he won gold here is a positive sign for them moving forward.
The Italians also look dangerous, with Thomas Ceccon looking comfortable in the 100 back semis in 52.35, Nicolo Martinenghi winning 100 breast silver just over three-tenths outside of his lifetime best, and Carlos D’Ambrosio leading off the 4×100 free relay in 47.78—and then breaking the Italian Record in the 200 free semis the next night (1:45.23).
The U.S. had a rough showing in the 100 back, and Campbell McKean couldn’t recreate his sub-59 from Nationals in the 100 breast, though Josh Matheny gives them hope after making the final. They’ll need Tommy Janton to get back to his Nationals form on the lead-off leg (53-flat) to have a chance at gold.
The Russian team could also end up being significantly faster than their 3:30.34 add-up, with Kliment Kolesnikov or Miron Lifintsev capable of dropping something big in the 100 back final, and Kirill Prigoda was slightly faster than his listed time in the 100 breast final before getting DQed. They also missed the 4×100 free relay final, so we didn’t get to see what Egor Kornev could throw down, as he’s been as fast as 47.42 flat-star this year.
With Leon Marchand capable of splitting something in the 58s on breast, and Yohann Ndoye-Brouard and Maxime Grousset showing strong from early, France can’t be slept on here.
Outside Medal Contenders
| GBR | AUS |
| Morgan – 52.41 |
Edwards-Smith – 54.52
|
| Butler – 59.53 | Wilkes – 1:00.42 |
| Mildred – 51.75 | Temple – 50.61 |
| Scott – 47.23 |
Chalmers – 46.53
|
| 3:30.92 | 3:32.08 |
**For swimmers who didn’t race the event in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used.
Great Britain is missing their usual Adam Peaty boost, but still looks well-rounded, while the Aussies currently have a rough front-half on paper, but all they need to do is stay in contact to give Kyle Chalmers a chance at the end.
Other Final Threats
| NED | GER | JPN | CAN |
| Van Westerling – 54.24 | Martens – 54.18** | Matsuyama – 53.94 | Pratt – 54.81 |
| Corbeau – 59.06 | Matzerath – 58.93 | Taniguchi – 59.59 | Knox – 1:01.05 |
| Korstanje – 50.59 | Armbruster – 51.21 | Matsumoto – 50.96 | Kharun – 50.37 |
| Niewold – 47.92*** | Winkler – 47.52 | Murasa – 48.25*** | Liendo – 47.08 |
| 3:31.81 | 3:31.84 | 3:32.74 | 3:33.31 |
**For swimmers who didn’t race the event in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used.
***For swimmers who didn’t race the free relay in Singapore, their best/season-best time is used with half a second taken off.
None of the countries listed above figures to be in the fight for the podium, but will have designs on cracking the top eight.
MIXED MEDLEY – A BRIEF OVERVIEW
The U.S. team has a few options in the mixed event, and it’s hard to imagine them not using Gretchen Walsh‘s record-breaking butterfly. Regan Smith, Josh Matheny, Gretchen Walsh and Jack Alexy would give them an add-up of 3:38.87.
China, going two men/two women, based on these times, gives them 3:40.78. Australia? 3:41.58 if they go for McKeown, Wilkes, Perkins and Chalmers. Russia’s team comes in at 3:41.41, while Italy is 3:41.66. Those figure to be the top five teams heading into the mixed relay, though perhaps we’ll dive deeper tomorrow after the finals of the women’s 100 back, 100 breast and men’s 100 back.
Smith, Douglass, and Walsh are a lock for the medley finals barring more sickness. Would love for King to have one last ride off into the sunset but she doesn’t have it rn. Douglass beat her the last 3 times they’ve raced. Huske should be fine by now. They’ve got to go Smith, Douglass, Walsh, Huske
Completely agree. After today, it is clear that this is the answer. They will break the world record again even if Huske is not totally healthy.
So how fast is Luca Urlando in the 100 meter back? He holds the US record in the 100 yard back, and is swimming great. Maybe he should swim back on the medley relay(s).
Xu’s underperforming in 100 back semis not only made him miss a shot at podium but introduced uncertainties for China to make history in the medley relay in the Worlds.
That being said, China’s anchor leg, Pan, is invincible in the field on a prerequisite that the rest of the quartet be able to set him up to clinch the swim.
At moment, it seems like Qin should slightly edge over his peers while Xu not being considered a front-runner in the leadoff leg and Chen’s capacity in the penultimate leg remaining a question mark, so in short, China’s gold opportunity is at stake.
As far as 4×200 relay, we know for sure Manuel, gemmell and ledecky are in good are good to go(that’s 3 legs, I get we still have Weinstein but we are no sure yet until tonight to see if she healthy enough to swim the relay) Sims and peplowski will have to wait til prelims to see where they are at health wise
Manuel will not swim 800 free relay finals
For the men: France, Italy, and China all have the hot hands right now.
It’s a long meet, so we will see what evolves in the next week.
Would be fun seeing Summer swim a fly split
France, China, USA
Modglin says hello