Four Years Later: What Does The Past Predict for Rio Winning Times?

This is part three of a three part series. You can find part 1 here, and part 2 here.

It’s incredibly trite to say that swimming is getting faster. It’s a refrain you’ll find on any championship pool deck. “The ACC is getting faster, the SEC is getting faster, Division III is getting faster”. What’s more fun is to discuss “how much faster?”. The following is an attempt at prognosticating the winning times for all male and female events in Rio. Swimming is both an art and a science, so both will be used to formulate the predictions. First, a couple of guiding principles:

  1. The Olympics are typically represent a bigger than usual spike in performance: Generally we see such a big spike in performance in an Olympic year that the following year regresses a little bit in comparison. This happened in 2013- with winning times generally slower than the 2012 Olympics. 2009 was a hugely anomalous year that deviated a bit since the 2008 Olympics were still a bit uneven in tech suit adoption. 2004-2005 had it’s own anomaly which we’ll discuss next.
  2. Facilities will be a factor in performance: The best comparison for the variety of facility issues that have plagued Rio 2016 is Athens. At this level, the best times are achieved in top level conditions, and if anything is short of that by the time the games begin, it will be a negative factor on performance. Athens famously did not enclose their Olympic pool, and the grueling heat and sun took a toll on the swimmers and the performances showed it.
  3. When predicting a WR, look for a generational talent with people to push them: The Olympic is all about getting your hand on the wall first. World records are a nice bonus, but altogether secondary. Most of the time great swimmers need some great competition to push them to their true top level of performance. Katie Ledecky is probably the one swimmer who won’t need anyone to push her come Rio.

With that out of the way, here are some predictions on the winning individual times along with a quick rationale,  way ahead of Rio. Starting with the men:

  • 50 Freestyle: 21.09. This race will be closer than it looks, but Manaudou has a dominant start and body size that leaves him mostly unaffected by other athlete’s wake.
  • 100 Freestyle: 47.40. Despite the heavy competition this time around, the 100 free is typically a little slower than it seems it should be:
  • 200 Freestyle: 1:44.20. A weird step back with the best active lifetime performers in this event struggling a bit
  • 400 Freestyle: 3:41.40. Another step back- their is not enough depth in this event internationally to push any performer to a world record
  • 1500 Freestyle: 14:30.32. Yang plus a hard charging Paltrinieri could mean a world record here.
  • 100 Backstroke: 51.85. Again, a top performer like Mitch Larkin and the potential challengers from the US will make this a fast race
  • 200 Backstroke: 1:53.00- A more modest improvement with less international depth than the 100
  • 100 Breaststroke: 57.65- Easy money with a young Peaty and strong competition
  • 200 Breaststroke: 2:06.85- Yamaguchi’s world record is one of the most likely to be broken given the level of talent in this race
  • 100 Butterfly: 50.02- A clash of generations will mean this even is much faster than 2012, even if the world record is likely still safe
  • 200 Butterfly: 1:51.95- Expect a much more competitive field than in Kazan
  • 200 IM: 1:53.85- Great field, lots of potential for improvement on this WR
  • 400 IM: 4:04.73- A somewhat more unbreakable WR, less chance of someone pushing themselves for the record if their lead is clear.

As for the women:

  • 50 Freestyle: 24.11: Without a dominant starter like Manaudou, the swimmers wake will augment performance down a bit in this race
  • 100 Freestyle: 52.32: Like the men’s race, this is not typically one in which a world record performance comes in the Olympics
  • 200 Freestyle: 1:53.56: Ledecky….
  • 400 Freestyle: 3:56.85: See above
  • 800 Freestyle: 8:03.40: See above
  • 100 Backstroke: 57.87: The 58 second barrier will go down in Rio in the most consistently deep women’s race
  • 200 Backstroke: 2:04.55- This would be a WR prediction if Missy Franklin looked more on point
  • 100 Breaststroke: 1:05.22- There aren’t really any good candidates to break Meilutyte’s record especially with the woman herself injured
  • 200 Breaststroke: 2:19.55- Although Pedersen doesn’t look good, there are still enough competitors to push past her WR
  • 100 Butterfly: 56.26- I expect Sjostrom to win but not surpass her records, through lack of competition and lack of prior Olympic success
  • 200 Butterfly: 2:03.55- Consistently an exciting race at the Olympics, something unpredictable happens, but Zige’s world record will sit for a while
  • 200 IM: 2:06.39- Similar to Sjostrom, I expect Hosszu to win but come up a little short for similar reasons
  • 400 IM: 4:28.07- The competition is better here and Hosszu will have pushed a few others to up their game.

So with all that said- what are your premature predictions? What trends do you see going forward into the 2016 Rio Games?

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swimmer 01
8 years ago

You really expect from Gunes win the 200 breast? For me she won’t win a medal.

Delfinua
Reply to  swimmer 01
8 years ago

I’m agree with you.

Delfinua
8 years ago

Gunes (Solceva) former Ukraine swimmer, now Turkish swim Federation . Her coach predict 200 Brest woman gold – 2.14,90 !? How you sey Gays ?

Victor P
8 years ago

I also predict that half of all the medals (48/96) will be awarded to the USA and AUS. AUS will win the gold medal race just barely over the USA, but the USA will win the total medal count.

Victor P
8 years ago

Step right up and play the predictions game:

50 free: 21.12 Manaudou
100 free: 47.27 McEvoy
200 free: 1:44.09 McEvoy
400 free: 3:41.32 Horton
1500 free: 14:35.15 Paltrinieri
100 back: 51.84 Larkin
200 back: 1:52.50 Larkin
100 breast: 57.70 Peaty
200 breast: 2:06.49 Koch
100 fly: 50.16 Phelps
200 fly: 1:51.48 Phelps
200 IM: 1:53.61 Phelps
400 IM: 4:04.69 Lochte
4×100 free: 3:08.92 France
4×200 free: 6:59.16 USA
4×100 medley: 3:27.42 USA
Women:
50 free: 23.79 C Campbell
100 free: 52.06 C Campbell
200 free: 1:53.48 Ledecky
400 free: 3:55.70 Ledecky
800 free: 8:03.40 Ledecky
100 back: 57.98… Read more »

Penguin
8 years ago

I want to see a fast men’s 200 free. The event has been way off in the past few years, despite a huge, talented international field. Olympic performances in the event however, have never been underwhelming. I expect someone to step it up and get down to a 1:43 again.
We’re starting to learn that super-records make the top competitors faster. I’m excited.

ERVINFORTHEWIN
Reply to  Penguin
8 years ago

200 will be great in my opinion . We will see 1,44 and 1.43 for sure ,

Tm
8 years ago

Actually some are downright ridiculous. 20355 in women’s fly ? Are u kidding me ? Has anyone even broken 205 with the textile suits ?

Ok
Reply to  Tm
8 years ago

Yes, Zige, Liuyang, Belmonte, and Hoshi have all done it in textile, the fastest of which is Liuyang with a 2:04.06 at the London Olympics. Still way off Ziges world record of 2:01.81, which might stand for generations.

Victor P
Reply to  Ok
8 years ago

I think if Sjostrom decides to train for it and go after it, she’ll break that WR by 2020.

Tm
8 years ago

A lot of the times listed above are way way too optimistic and a lot of people will be very disappointed in the end. I think the conditions will play a role and won’t be ideal. It is likely it could be more like Athens than Beijing or London.

M Palota
8 years ago

What’s the latest on the pool?

I know it’s covered but is fully enclosed?

I have a feeling that Rio is going to be tough on the athletes, all of them, across all sports. Concerns about Zika, I’ve heard there’s problems with power supply and driving around Rio is a horror show at the best of times.

I think times might be slower than expected given the weird hours and all the other stuff that’s going to be happening at these Games.

george
Reply to  M Palota
8 years ago

Agreed. The weird times especially, for swimming (not sure about other sports), will surely have an effect on the times.

About Chris DeSantis

Chris DeSantis

Chris DeSantis is a swim coach, writer and swimming enthusiast. Chris does private consulting and coaching with teams and individuals. You can find him at www.facebook.com/cdswimcoach. Chris is a 2009 Graduate from the Masters of Applied Positive Psychology program at the University of Pennsylvania. He was the first professional athletic coach …

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