The results of the annual Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) benchmark study, aimed at predicting the number of medals the country will win at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games, have been revealed.
Taking into account the performances of key athletes in this year’s World Championships events, the study expects Australia as a whole to finish in 7th place in the country standings. According to the data, Australia would tie Germany for 7th place with 13 golds and a total of 37 medals.
More towards the top of the country rankings, the study predicts China will edge out the United States in terms of total golds, giving 39 to the former and 25 to the latter. Russia, Japan, Great Britain and France would then wrap up the remainder of the top echelon of national medal standings when Rio is done and dusted.
If the prediction proves true, Australia’s result in Rio would net the nation two more medals than what was earned in London at the 2012 Games. London marked Australia’s worst Olympic medal result since Barcelona in 1992 when it won just 7 gold medals across all its athletes.
Interestingly, when the AOC conducted this same benchmark study four years ago, it correctly predicted the number of medals that Australia wound up winning in London, but their specific estimate of 15 golds to the nation was well short of the reality that just 7 were brought back down under.
Among the individual medalists identified within the AOC study, are swimmers picked to win the following events. Note, the study predicts just three individual gold medalists, with a tally of two events each.
Mitch Larkin – 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke
Bronte Campbell – 50m freestyle, 100m freestyle
Emily Seebohm – 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke
Women’s 4x100m freestyle relay (Bronte Campbell, Emily Seebohm, Cate Campbell and Emma McKeon).
Compare and contrast this study to the virtual medal table revealed by Infostrada in March of this year, obviously before many World Championship events were contested. Infostrada Sports, the manager of the world’s largest sports database, used a proprietary algorithm to generate its purely objective findings. In their virtual medal table seen in our report here, Australia is predicted to take home a total of 42 medals, which would render the nation in 6th place overall in the faux standings.
Now in December, even Infostrada has reduced its Australian expectations, now predicting the nation to maintain its 6th-place-ranking, but in the form of just 39 overall medals. In its most updated form, Infostrada identifies the following medalists within the Australian Dolphins Olympic roster:
Golds:
Mitch Larkin – 100m and 200m backstroke
Emily Seebohm – 100m and 200m backstroke
Cate Campbell – 100m freestyle
Bronte Campbell – 50m freestyle
Women’s 400m freestyle relay
Silver:
Bronte Campbell – 100m freestyle
Cameron McEvoy – 100m freestyle
Men’s 400m medley relay
Women’s 800m freestyle relay
Bronze:
Cate Campbell – 50m freestyle
Alicia Coutts – 100m butterfly
Women’s 400m medley relay
Men’s 800m freestyle relay
Commonwombat, great overview of the Australian situation.
I’m not going to “go there” with regards to the overall target but will keep my comments confined to the swimming projections/predictions. Whilst certainly not outrageous, it would be fair to describe them as very optimistic.
W4X100: Barring injury or illness ruling out one or both Campbell(s) OR a break; this relay has a break over 2sec on it’s nearest competition and is a prohibitive favourite
Seebohm (W100BK) & Larkin (M200BK): Can justifiably be seen as favourites for gold in these events but certainly not “locks”. Very secure medal bets.
Larkin (M100BK): A strong chance for gold however this looks a far tougher race. Good medal bet.
Seebohm (W200BK): As per Larkin above however probably a more secure medal medal… Read more »