2025 World Championships Preview: Qin The Heavy Favorite Amid Field Loaded With Absences

2025 World Championships

• July 27 – August 3, 2025 (pool swimming)
• Singapore, Singapore
• World Aquatics Championships Arena
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index

 Men’s 200 Breaststroke — By The Numbers

• World Record: 2:05.48 – Qin Haiyang, China (2023)
• World Junior Record: 2:06.91 – Shin Ohashi, Japan (2025)
• 2023 World Champion: 2:05.48 — Qin Haiyang, China
• 2024 Olympic Champion: 2:05.85 — Leon Marchand, France

The men’s 200 breaststroke is up next in SwimSwam’s preview series for the 2025 World Championships. The entry sheet is loaded with absences, but there are still 15 swimmers seeded under 2:10 and 24 at 2:10 or faster. This will almost certainly be one of the closest fields to make a final and one of the toughest podiums to predict.

Chinese World Championship Dominance: The 2023 & 2024 World Champions

Qin Haiyang (Photo Credit: Jack Spitser)

If you read SwimSwam, you surely know the story of Chinese breaststroker Qin Haiyang. Early in his career, Qin was a good, world-class breaststroker and IMer, but one whose name didn’t scare many on the entry sheets. In 2023, though, he won a historic 50-100-200 sweep at the World Championships and broke the World Record in the 200.

He struggled in Paris, though, even considering the alleged slow pool theories. He was just 7th in the 100 breast (59.50), despite logging 58.93 in the semifinals and 57.69 earlier in the season. His 2:09.96 in the 200 breast semifinals earned him 10th place and ended his finals hopes, a disappointing result compared to his 2:05.48 world record swim in Fukuoka. However, his recovery to split 57.98 in the men’s 400 medley relay at the end of the meet indicated that his individual performances were more akin to “bad swims” than a “structural decline.”

So far this season, Qin has been 2:07.44 at the Chinese Spring Championships in March and 2:07.57 at the Chinese Trials in May. Both times are much better than the 2:08.87 he logged at the Chinese Olympic Trials last year and slightly faster than the 2:07.55 he clocked at the Chinese Trials in 2023 before Worlds. Although he added a full second from Trials to the Olympics last year, he dropped two seconds in 2023. Given that he looks to be performing on par with his 2023 self, he appears on track for a redemption meet.

Qin showed signs of this at the Short Course Worlds last December, when he won both the 50 and 100 breast titles but missed the 200 final, finishing 9th. However, this was more about taking it too easy in prelims rather than a fitness issue, as his season-best time of 2:01.92 was already significantly faster than the 2:04.42 he swam at Worlds.

If Qin is anywhere near the form he showed in 2023, he will be unbeatable in this event—and all signs point to exactly that kind of redemption story unfolding in Singapore.

China’s other medal contender is former world junior record holder Dong Zhihao, who is expected to be in the medal hunt. Dong, who walked away with gold in this event at the lightly attended 2024 Doha LCM Worlds, has a best time of 2:07.94 from that meet. The 20-year-old known for his backend speed has been improving his 100 this year, dropping from 59.67 to 59.06. This is a strong omen that the weakest part of his 200 may improve—his easy speed. If he’s able to maintain his mind-boggling final 50, a 2:07-low or even 2:06 could be in the cards, but whether it comes to fruition at Worlds remains the question.

He was only 2:09.98 for runner-up behind Qin at the Chinese World Trials in May, the same meet where he threw down the 59.06 in the 100. However, he was reportedly sick for a portion of that meet, so it’s unclear if his slower 200 was a result of the sickness or a direct impact of focusing more on 100 speed. Regardless, we’ll learn soon enough if the extra 100 focus results in a positive or negative correlation for this longer discipline.

The Japanese Duo

Ippei Watanabe (photo: Jack Spitser)

At one time, Japan’s Ippei Watanabe held the World Record in this event, owning a lifetime best of 2:06.67 notched at the 2017 Kosuke Kitajima Cup. The now-26-year-old saw that record first get matched by Australia’s Matt Wilson and then get overtaken by Russia’s Anton Chupkov, both at the 2019 World Championships. There in Gwangju, Korea, Watanabe ultimately claimed bronze in a near-PB of 2:06.73.

However, things progressively got ultra-competitive domestically in Japan, with Shoma Sato, Ryuya Mura, and Yu Hanaguruma making noise and giving Watanabe serious hurdles to overcome.

Watanabe came up short when it came to qualifying for the 2020 Olympic Games in his home country, relegated to 3rd place (2:08.30) at that year’s Trials, behind Sato and Mura.

After painfully watching the Tokyo Games from the sideline, Watanabe took some time away from the pool to reflect, rejuvenate, and reactivate his love of the sport. It clearly worked, as he skipped the 2022 Japanese World Trials only to return in 2023 and win the selection meet in 2:07.73, before going on to touch 6th in the Worlds final (2:08.78).

Last year, though, was his true return to near top form. He put together a swift 2:06.94 to win the Japanese Olympic Trials and qualify for Paris, where he finished 6th in the final with a time of 2:08.83.

So far this season, Watanabe’s best has been 2:07.53, produced at the Konami Open in February. To medal, he will likely have to break his trend of not dropping time from Trials to Worlds. The pedigree is clearly there. He has been sub-2:08 on multiple occasions over the past year and has broken 2:07 several times in his career. However, he typically adds between 1-2 seconds from his Trials time to the big championship meet every year dating back to 2019, when he was 2:07.02 at Trials before posting the 2:06.73 for the aforementioned bronze.

At the Japanese World Trials in March, Watanabe was upended for the win by Yamato Fukasawa, the bronze medalist from the 2024 Short Course Worlds. Fukasawa won the event in 2:07.47 over Watanabe’s 2:07.64, within striking distance of his 2:07.07 lifetime best from the 2024 Konami Open. At this year’s Konami Open, Fukasawa posted his season-best 2:07.24, also defeating Watanabe at that meet.

Fukasawa peaked a bit early heading into the 2024 Japanese Trials, where he finished 3rd in 2:07.73 and narrowly missed a Paris berth. Hanaguruma took the second spot behind Watanabe in 2:07.07, matching Fukasawa’s season and personal best.

Fukasawa, who also won the 100 breast at the Trials a few months ago, doesn’t have a significant amount of international experience outside of the Short Course Worlds and World University Games. On top of that, he broke his thumb in early May and will be competing in Singapore with a bolt in his hand. He was unable to return to “full-scale” training until June 23rd.

Despite the setback, Fukasawa seems confident, stating to 47 News: “I will still aim for the gold medal and a new Japanese record [at the World Championships].”

Absences All Around

While on the topic of the Japanese, we would be remiss not to give a mention to Shin Ohashi, who has been on an absolute tear over the past few months. Starting the season having not broken 2:09, the 16-year-old has dropped all the way down to 2:06.91 as of Monday at the Kinki High School Championships in Japan. The time represents a new World Junior Record in the event, a record he has reset multiple times over the past few months. Entering that competition, the teen’s lifetime best and previous World Junior Record sat at the 2:07.27 he notched just last month at the Osaka High School Championships.

Within the nation of Japan, Ohashi is now the third-best performer in history and just the third man from his nation to clear the 2:07 barrier. He also checks in as the 10th-best performer of all time, worldwide. He became the third Japanese swimmer to accomplish the feat, joining Shoma Sato (2:06.40) and Watanabe (2:06.67).

Despite his significant progress, Ohashi did not make the grade for Singapore at their Trials, where he put his hands on the wall in 4th in the 2:09 range.

France’s Leon Marchand made waves last July when he competed in the 200 breast for the first time at a major senior-level international competition.

The four-time Olympic champion entered the 2024 Paris Olympics seeded 4th with a best time of 2:06.59 from the French Trials in 2023. He had previously opted out of the event at the World Championships due to an event conflict that has since been shifted in the scheduling.

In Paris, he faced a similar problem with a double featuring the 200 butterfly final in the same session, but it was much smoother than what he would have encountered with the 200 IM in 2023. The schedule was shifted just months before the Paris Games started to address the event order concern.

He kicked things off in Paris by bringing the house down in the final of the men’s 200 fly, running down world record holder and defending champion Kristof Milak to win gold in 1:51.21. He lowered Milak’s Olympic Record and surpassed Michael Phelps for second all-time.

A little over 90 minutes later, Marchand returned to pool to out-battle Zac Stubblety-Cook, the reigning Olympic champion, for gold, touching in 2:05.85. Marchand, in turn, became only the third man to dip under 2:06.

Marchand has dealt with some injuries this year and has dropped both the 200 breast and 200 fly from his Worlds lineup.

“It’s a choice we made because we’re in a post-Olympic year, and he’s never had the opportunity to perform a 200m medley without having a race before or after the same day,” Nicolas Castel, his club coach with the TOEC Dolphins, told Franceinfo Sport. “He wanted to try this isolated 200m medley and see what he was capable of.”

“Now, the main idea is to test this race without anything around it,” Castel continued.

“He wants to see what he’s capable of in this configuration. It’s interesting for him and for us as well” [with Bob Bowman, his primary coach]. “Plus, in a post-Olympic year, lightening the program a little can be good.” Castel added.

Former world record holder Stubblety-Cook, who for a two-year period in 2021 and 2022 looked like he was building a 200 breaststroke dynasty, has also withdrawn from the competition, due to a back injury. He won Olympic gold in Tokyo, broke the world record at Australian Trials in May 2022 with a time of 2:05.95—becoming the first man under 2:06—then won the 2022 World Championship and Commonwealth Games titles, all while entering his mid-20s when male swimmers often peak.

Then in 2023, Qin beat him head-to-head and stole his world record. Once the Paris Olympics rolled around, Marchand joined the party in this event, scarring Qin’s world record and denying Stubblety-Cook a second consecutive Olympic title. While Stubblety-Cook has not been able to reach the top of the podium in recent years, he remains a mainstay on the podium and would have been a favorite for a medal due to his consistency, despite only posting a time of 2:09.09 so far this season.

“It’s disappointing, but I had a lot of time off last year and I am committed to the next four years,” Stubblety-Cook told Swimming Australia about his withdrawal. “It’s a setback, but a minor one, and hopefully by the time the pool team dives in Singapore, I’ll be back in the water myself.

“My coach Mel Marshall and I both believe my best time is still in me, so I’m still chasing that… and there’s a lot of racing left in me.”

The final key absence is American Matt Fallon, who scorched an American record time of 2:06.54 to win the U.S. Olympic Trials last summer. He won the bronze medal at the 2023 Worlds, but missed the final last July in Paris, as he was relegated to equal 10th with Qin in 2:09.96. He’s sitting out of competing this summer to focus on an internship, though he is still training.

Other Threats

• The Netherlands’ Caspar Corbeau, the Paris Olympic bronze medalist, is sure to be a big-time factor in the final. Corbeau has had a non-linear season so far, with his primary coach Mark Faber leaving the Netherlands for a job in Belgium. Corbeau, in early 2025, completed a stint back in the NCAA system under Ray Looze at Indiana, but recently announced he was moving to Belgium to reunite with Faber. The change in training this season could have an impact come Singapore, but the 24-year-old has shown absolutely no signs of it. He has recorded times of 59.06 and 2:08.21 in the 100/200 distances so far this season, just off his 59.04/2:07.91 career records from the Paris Olympics. He will very likely need to drop a decent chunk of his best time of 2:07.91 to reach the podium again, especially with the likes of Qin and Dong appearing in ominious form. However, he stepped up when it counted in the Paris final, and could very well do that again in Singapore.
• The American duo of Josh Matheny and AJ Pouch are both threats to make the final, but with their season bests of 2:08.87 and 2:08.96, they will likely need to get closer to their personal bests of 2:08.32 (Matheny) and 2:08.00 (Pouch). A time somewhere between their PBs and season bests will likely earn them a lane. Matheny has experience in this event at the World level, as he was 8th at the 2023 Worlds (2:10.41) and 7th at the Games (2:09.51) last summer. Pouch is making his long course debut, but swam strong at the Short Course Worlds in Budapest, touching 6th in 2:02.84.
• Kirill Prigoda, 29, has been a mainstay in breaststroke races dating back to 2017 and owns a best time of 2:07.47. He has been within a second of that mark this year (2:08.38). If he repeats his season best, you’ll be seeing him in the final at Worlds. If he can approach his personal best, a medal is certainly on the table. His teammate, 23-year-old Alexander Zhigalov (2:09.21), posted a career best to take second to Prigoda at the Russian Trials and is right on the bubble of a potential berth into the final. Both swimmers will be competing under the ‘Neutral Athletes B’ banner due to their suspension over the nation’s war in Ukraine.
• Spain’s Carles Coll Marti shocked many swim fans when he won the 2024 World Short Course title, where world record holder Prigoda settled for silver and the aforementioned Fukasawa struck bronze. Since his world title, Coll Marti has improved in the long course pool, dropping a few tenths from his July 2024 best of 2:10.58 to log 2:10.25 with a runner-up finish at the Sacramento Pro Swim Series stop, only behind Fallon. If he can convert his great short course swim into the big pool, a 2:08 isn’t out of the question, and that could secure him a top-8 qualifying time.
• Italians Christian Mantegazza (2:09.39) and Nicolo Martinenghi (2:10.00) are two individuals who could also be factors in terms of making the final. 20-year-old Mantegazza clocked 2:10.68 to win the Italian National title back in April, only to improve that to 2:09.39 for 2nd at the Setti Colli meet in June. If he’s able to make another leap forward, he’s in with a shot to make the big heat. Martinenghi, the reigning Olympic champion in the 100m distance, also notched his season-best 2:10.00 at the Setti Colli competition, where he was 3rd. The 25-year-old, whose previous lifetime marker was 2:10.09 from March 2024, is now training under the guidance of Matteo Guinta, who guided Federica Pellegrini at the latter end of her career to a World title in 2019, after ending his longtime partnership with Marco Pedoja after the Olympic Games. While he’s a medal favorite in the 100, with a shot in the 50, he’ll need a big drop in this 200 to even see the final, but training with Guinta, who is known for coaching 200s, he may have a finals-worthy time in him come Singapore.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Cho Sungjae (South Korea) — South Korean 24-year-old Cho Sungjae made his presence known at the Paris Games when he posted the quickest time during the preliminary heats at 2:09.45. He struggled in the semifinals, adding just over half a second (2:10.03) and missing the final by 14 hundredths of a second, touching 11th overall. He’s been as quick as 2:08.59, which stands as the Korean record that he set in November 2020. If he can get back into the 2:08 range, he could earn himself a lane in the championship final.