2016 Olympic champion Joseph Schooling is my kind of guy. Schooling let’s you know who he intends to beat and what records he wants to break. Sports drama ensues.
Currently Michael Phelps‘ 100m butterfly world record is in Schooling’s crosshairs, but that “could” take a backseat to Schooling vs Dressel butterfly hype at 2017 FINA World Championships. Frankly, I don’t know if Caeleb Dressel will even swim the race. 50m free conflicts with the 100m butterfly. At this point, if Dressel finals and improves on his 100 butterfly U.S. World Trials swim from Indy, 50.8, that’s a success in my book.
The pressure’s on Schooling, however. He’s on the record saying he wants Phelps’ 49.82 100m fly record from the 2009 World Championship in Rome–clocked in one of the greatest match-ups in history against Milorad Cavic. In all fairness to Schooling, the 100m fly world record is a massive goal–almost pie-in-sky. Phelps ripped that swim in a rubberized floatation techsuit. Listening to Schooling explain his ambitions, it’s simply the next logical step in his career.
PREDICTIONS:
While I’d love to see a world record 100m fly from Schooling in Budapest, I don’t think it’s realistic right now. Phelps’ 49.82 was top-of-the-water-floated via tech and nearly six tenths faster than Schooling’s personal best–.57 to be precise. Schooling’s PB is 50.39 flown in the finals of the 100 fly at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. If Schooling can shave any time off his 50.39, I think he wins. Moreover, following Olympic gold with a World Championship win is a step forward career-wise. If Schooling is feeling great, I’d love to see a 50.09, and that’s my prediction. It’s within range after his 50.9 unshaven 100 fly at ATX Sectionals. Conversely, I could see Schooling beating the field in 50.6, but I’m banking on fast final pushing Schooling’s to a PB.
What do you think it will take to win, and what do you think Schooling will clock?
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
Caeleb Dressel just blasted a 49.86 in 100m butterfly final at world champs taking the gold. I think one can argue that this is quite close to 49.82.
Schooling did a 50.9 unshaven. That has a mixed meaning and if the answer to the following question is ‘yes’, then he can break the 100 fly record. The question is … Was Schooling also NOT TAPERED? If he was unshaven AND untapered, he could break the record by a tenth or more. He has already (2016) gone 50.4. Statistically, a swimmer drops around 3% off his/her best untapered time when tapered. 50.8 x 0.03 = 1.52. 50.8 – 1.52 = 49.28. So, Schooling could drop only 1.0 seconds (<2.0%) and still break the record. Good luck to Schooling!
I think you might be right. I have a feeling it might actually be a slowish final. Typically what happens after all the hype.
Mel – Have you seen this? A chart of Joseph Schooling’s time progression over the last 5 years.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/infographics/joseph-schooling-singapores-water-wizard
nope…..looking now. Thx!
Let’s not forget Dressel went 40.00 on his 13TH SWIM of the meet at NCAAs… he’s more than capable of dropping a huge swim here the same day as the 50. Not necessarily saying he’ll beat Schooling, but he’s more than prepared for this monstrous schedule, and he’s capable of doing it well.
Caeleb will be the toughest competitor for both races ……
Has anyone done an analysis on the accuracy of Mel’s predictions?
He has done approximately 4,584,988,345 predictions and is wrong 99.99 of the time.
not at all , he is bold AND passionate – something that some swimswammers mostly forget
He still wins in the Electoral College.
To beat MP’s WR he should really improve his 50 fly.
IMHO the only way to beat the WR in the 100 fly is with a split like 23/26.8 (23.1/26.7)
Basically, Cavic on the front end, Phelps on the back end.
26.8 isn’t just Phelps, Schooling split 26.7 in Rio.
He wouldn’t if he were Cavic on the front end.
Cavic first 50 was 22.67 and MP last 50 was 26.46 so no.
49.13 that would be wicked but won’t happen
Always surprised because everyone reminds the Lzr tech suit (even if the far most performing tech suits in 2009 were the 100 per cent poly suits used, for instance, by Biedermann and Cavic) and nobody cites the other technical improvements nowadays available (and absent in 2009): at least 2 tenths at the start because of the new blocks, textile jammers every year more competitive, lanes and swimming pools faster, more advanced training methods and supplements.
And, in fact, the performances in swimming, at every level, are getting quicker year after year, northeless the ban of tech suits.
Completely agree with the exception of the ’09 canoes.
True, but the 2009 era suits absolutely crush today’s suits.
Not to mention Crocker’s previous textile best, done without a start wedge.