Schooling World Record Predictions: GMM presented by SwimOutlet.com

Gold Medal Minute presented by SwimOutlet.com

2016 Olympic champion Joseph Schooling is my kind of guy. Schooling let’s you know who he intends to beat and what records he wants to break.  Sports drama ensues.

Currently Michael Phelps‘ 100m butterfly world record is in Schooling’s crosshairs, but that “could” take a backseat to Schooling vs Dressel butterfly hype at 2017 FINA World Championships.  Frankly, I don’t know if Caeleb Dressel will even swim the race. 50m free conflicts with the 100m butterfly.   At this point, if Dressel finals and improves on his 100 butterfly U.S. World Trials swim from Indy, 50.8, that’s a success in my book.

The pressure’s on Schooling, however.  He’s on the record saying he wants Phelps’ 49.82 100m fly record from the 2009 World Championship in Rome–clocked in one of the greatest match-ups in history against Milorad Cavic.  In all fairness to Schooling, the 100m fly world record is a massive goal–almost pie-in-sky. Phelps ripped that swim in a rubberized floatation techsuit. Listening to Schooling explain his ambitions, it’s simply the next logical step in his career.

PREDICTIONS:

While I’d love to see a world record 100m fly from Schooling in Budapest, I don’t think it’s realistic right now. Phelps’ 49.82 was top-of-the-water-floated via tech and nearly six tenths faster than Schooling’s personal best–.57 to be precise.  Schooling’s PB is 50.39 flown in the finals of the 100 fly at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. If Schooling can shave any time off his 50.39, I think he wins.  Moreover, following Olympic gold with a World Championship win is a step forward career-wise.   If Schooling is feeling great, I’d love to see a 50.09, and that’s my prediction.  It’s within range after his 50.9 unshaven 100 fly at ATX Sectionals.  Conversely, I could see Schooling beating the field in 50.6, but I’m banking on fast final pushing Schooling’s to a PB.

What do you think it will take to win, and what do you think Schooling will clock?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

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Distance Swimmer
3 years ago

If schooling goes 50.5 I’d be surprised, let alone 50.09

David Berkoff
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Kids these days are always swimming fast “unshaven”. You know Mel, back in the day we trained harder and we’re as hairy as a Burt Reynolds movie. ? Not saying he won’t do it but a 49.8 super suit swim is going to be pretty hard to top. Kind of like the current men’s 50 through 800 records.

bigly
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Clean water versus the tight final. He had the advantage in Rio of being the only rested guy of the top 4 (Phelps and three rounds of fly-and-die 200 free LeClos were dead by that time), so he had a dominant advantage and clear water from the get-go. That won’t happen in Budapest. He’ll also not have the clear water he had in his Austin swim.

crooked donald
Reply to  bigly
3 years ago

Agree. Schooling was half a body-length ahead at 30 meters, and LeClos was at his hip from the beginning. He’s a tiny guy. No way he has that clean water at Budapest. LeClos will take the 200 free rounds easier and be more ready, like he was at Kazan. Can’t see why Schooling’s supposed to do a best time when he said he didn’t train all Fall. He was fast at the beginning of his taper, because he wasn’t coming off much of a work base.

SwimHistorian
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

Schooling is listed at 6′, which means he’s probably around 5′ 11,”, which admittedly is short for a top 100 flyer. But he has freakishly long arms, I’m guessing his wingspan is closer to 6’4″, and in swimming, most of the advantage of being tall is a matter of wingspan. Google-image him, you’ll see what I’m talking about.

crooked donald
Reply to  SwimHistorian
3 years ago

But he weighs about 165. He’ll be impacted by the side wake. If you don’t believe in side wake, read what Adrian said about the disadvantage of being in the middle lane in the Olympic 100 free final.

Big Calves
Reply to  SwimHistorian
3 years ago

Eddie said that Schooling has an amazing kick, that it’s his top weapon. So add in really long arms. Being 5’11” hardly matters…

jelly
Reply to  SwimHistorian
3 years ago

Actually Schooling is 1.84m, so he’s closer to 6’1″ than he is to 6’0″, and he’s no where close to 5’11”. Yes that may be short for a swimmer, but I think it’s really the technique that matters especially in the post-supersuit era

dude 2.0
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

just like how Phelps wasn’t going to break the world record in ’09 after that crazy ’08… oh wait…

crooked donald
Reply to  dude 2.0
3 years ago

Comparing Schooling to Phelps? Wow. A one-event wonder vs the GOAT?

Swimmer?
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

He has a semifinal as well, plus if he can get through the pressure and has the same performance, maybe a 50.2

Attila the Runt
Reply to  Swimmer?
3 years ago

His trend, from this past NCAAs on, has been to cruise prelims (he really cruised the relays), presumably because he’s concerned about conditioning/recover after taking so long off post-Rio. Doubt we see a best time in an earlier round.

Frank
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

schooling is a pretty hairless dude. unrested maybe, but he might as well be shaven

Tyrece
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Not the case for Conger in 2015 when he time trialed the 200 fly unshaven and broke the US Open record just to flunk at NCAAs.

crooked donald
Reply to  Tyrece
3 years ago

But that’s the story of Conger’s life.

Old guy
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

Crooked D. How many D1 finals you swim in? Those whom have never done typically crow the most about what others should do.

crooked donald
Reply to  Old guy
3 years ago

Sorry, Jack’s dad.

my MOM!
Reply to  Old guy
3 years ago

I’ve never faced major league pitching, played a single down of competitive football – but I’m ready to throw my opinion out there on major sports, JUST FOR FUN. Does one need to have played in a Super Bowl to enter the debate of Montana vs Brady? If we want swimming to be a major sport (don’t we?) chill out with the straw-man argument. These boards are great, for the purpose of giving swim fans the opportunity to voice their opinions. Until we have a major radio show where we can call in and say what we feel – we have these boards. Thanks SwimSwam.

Swimmer?
Reply to  my MOM!
3 years ago

But people talk trash about the hardest workers in our sport, they don’t deserve that.

Blackflag82
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Schooling between Big 12 and NCAA drops 3 tenths. Arguably, he was at a similar point in taper and a there is a similar length of time between the meets as there is between Austin and World Champs. Leads me to think of a drop more in the .3-.4 range putting him closer to 50.5 or 50.6. Echoing what others have said, but I question whether he has the training base for even a half second drop.

Brownie
Reply to  Blackflag82
3 years ago

Perfectly said I couldn’t agree more

Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

Schooling is smart, again by this point in the meet most other swimmers will be tired with heavy schedules, no one can match his easy speed down first 50, his turn power and how he holds a low stroke rate and huge DPS down second 50.

He’s going a the least 50.5, how can’t he? He doesn’t care about 50fly and 100free he’ll use them as training and prep. 50.9 the other week, in a world champs final atmosphere he’s going faster.

bigly
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

Why are we saying that, despite taking a quarter of the year off of heavy training (accorgind to him Rio-December), he’s going to go faster than at Rio when his training was perfect for the entier quad and certainly that year? I just don’t get the argument. He just naturally goes faster every time he suits up?

Skoorbnagol
Reply to  bigly
3 years ago

Well 50.5 isn’t as fast as rio, he’s still getting naturally stronger, yeah ‘perfect prep’ for rio, but he will have been totally recovered physically and building off his rio base this last 7 months. He was faster at NCAA in the 100, can’t see how he’s going to be much slower than 50.5. He’s getting faster till he’s at least 25 by getting stronger, he’s done the work to race 3×100 fly’s. He’s not got a huge schedule of aerobic events and relays like many Americans, look at lochte in 2013, took time off filming his to show and still swam 15 races and all were great at 29, think schooling at 22 swimming 100fly will be fine. Texas… Read more »

attilla the runt
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

The “getting naturally stronger” only applies if you’re actually training (particularly resistance) as you’re aging up into the mid-20’s. I didn’t get the impression he was doing any serious training at all from Rio (beginning of August) to December. If you factor in the taper for Rio, he could have been at his weakest, in terms of power production, with 6 months of no serious strength/power training as late as January 2017. Remember, he got run down in the last 50 by Dressel in a 43 second race at NCAAs, and quit in the 200 fly, so not sure he is truly “Texas fit.” He might get to 50.5, but I could also see a 50.7 after three rounds.

dude 2.0
Reply to  attilla the runt
3 years ago

how about the reasoning that he just isn’t one of those guys you would bet against when it really matters. Dude is not afraid.

crooked donald
Reply to  dude 2.0
3 years ago

2017 NCAA 100 fly finals, 200 fly prelims. I guess NCAAs don’t matter anymore. Dead last in Rio 100 free semifinals.

attilla the runt
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

We’re talking about what has increasingly become a power event. Aerobic base doesn’t mean much if you can’t generate the power. If he hasn’t been hitting weights hards for 5-6 months (the Rio taper, plus his time off to December), taking time off isn’t going to be a plus.

crooked donald
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Only if they’re hitting the weights/gym. Strength just doesn’t occur magically with rest (unless you’ve been overreaching/overtraining, but here we’re talking after a prolonged taper) or with aging (he’s well past puberty, I think). If he wasn’t doing jack squat or back squats as he claimed, he doesn’t get stronger just by sitting in his dorm.

Masters Swimmer
Reply to  Gold Medal Mel Stewart
3 years ago

Great point. I agree. I keep going back to Ian Crocker’s 100 fly at Montreal Worlds in 2005. That true WR (textile best) held until Schooling broke it in Rio, a whopping 11 years later! Look how dominantly Schooling had sot swim that race to beat Crocker’s 2005 time by just 0.01 seconds. Crocker’s swim was a good example of lower pressure one year after the Olympics. It just goes to show me how some of the greatest swimmers of all time are relatively unknown because they don’t have a huge quantity of gold medals.

crooked donald
Reply to  Masters Swimmer
3 years ago

But Schooling invites pressure with his talk, predicting a WR. Crocker was not at all like that.

MGG
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

That’s just a difference in personalities…..you can’t hold it against Schooling for liking to put pressure on himself. Taking into account what Eddie said at NCAAs about how Schooling accomplished all of his swimming goals in 1 race, I think Schooling is now searching for that new motivation. He wants to put that pressure on himself to keep going/hold himself accountable.

crooked donald
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

LeClos can definitely match or exceed his easy speed and turn power. Didn’t you see LeClos 21.9 and 48.0 SCM 50 and 100 flys in December? LeClos also has more endurance — can actually do a competitive 200 LCM fly. Chad’s best is 0.17 worse than Schooling’s. It’s not a given Schooling wins, much less does 50.5.

Attila the Runt
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

To your point: while LeClos was setting world records and lighting up the 50-100-200 (making Shields look like he was standing still) at Windsor in December, Schooling was supposedly just getting back to serious training after Rio. So how again does Schooling do a best time, and LeClos is out of the discussion?

Billabong
Reply to  Attila the Runt
3 years ago

Chad for the win. Last time he beats Schooling.

Skoorbnagol
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

Yeah Leclos is exceptional underwater I agree and haven’t suggested he’s out of the talk to win. He’s never been out 23.5 and struggles to break 24 on the 100, his stroke is more 200 dominated and I feel 6×200 and 2×100 prior to the final, will tax his anaerobic system to much, particularly with his turn power on 200free. This endurance point means nothing on the 100, schooling has the base and technique, endurance only relavent to survive the meet and do all the events he chooses. Based of schooling been fresher I feel he wins.

attilla the runt
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

LeClos was out in 23.72 in his 50.56 at the end of a long Kazan meet. That’s sure not struggling to break 24. He was out in 22.5 when he went 48.0 SCM in December. Schooling was out in 23.5 in the Kazan final, and LeClos passed him with a 0.7 sec faster back half. The endurance argument totally falls apart when you consider Tom Shields: he can do a fast 49 seconds (SCM 100 fly) but not a 51 sec LCM fly. Cavic, too. Phelps gets him in the last 5 meters.

Skoorbnagol
Reply to  attilla the runt
3 years ago

Tom Shield does not hold water when he fatigues that’s a bad example. Schooling and Chad both do. Cavic v Phelps again a bad example, cavic pulled on train tracks straight down and was very 50/100m swimmer who slowed down and broke down, I doubt cavic and schooling have a similar physiology. Phelps pull phase under his body more natural and he mainstained speed. Don’t think the endurance side played a factor, shield can’t hold technique, fact, cavic was never going to play Phelps’s game he wouldn’t of been able to back end it no matter what, he was more fast twitch dominated. Do you think if cavic did more endurance work he’d of beat Phelps? Doubt he would of… Read more »

crooked donald
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

“Tom Shield does not hold water when he fatigues that’s a bad example.” Geez, did you see Schooling’s 1:45 200 fly at NCAAs? Now THAT’s not holding water when you’re fatigued.

Skoorbnagol
Reply to  crooked donald
3 years ago

Think schooling 200fly at NCAA was more I can’t be bothered and didn’t try.
Pritty sure he held water when he went 1.37.9.

crooked donald
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

Yeah, held water when he was training for 200’s (the 200 IM and fly as a freshman, 200 fly as sophomore). He’s been dropping the 200’s and picking up the 50 free. You made my point.

crooked donald
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
3 years ago

I think he’s quoting the SCM times because you keep going off on how fast-twitch/power/easy speed/great underwaters Schooling has. The SCM swims of LeClos prove he has all those in spades.

jelly
Reply to  attilla the runt
3 years ago

Schooling has improved on his back half since then. In Rio he came back 26.75, which was the fastest of the field. Even Michael didn’t come back as quick. Yes the race will be close, but I think Schooling has the edge with the better first 50

crooked donald
Reply to  jelly
3 years ago

Michael was about 20 min removed from the 200 IM final where he had a statement swim. Of course Schooling beat him on the back half. And yes Schooling improved from Kazan to Rio on the back half because he was training up to 200’s in college. But now we’re talking Rio to Budapest, and a significant block of training missed, and giving up on the 200 fly altogether, SCY or LCM. As a reminder, Dressel ran Schooling down on the back half at NCAAs. Does a couple extra month’s hard training since then to now make him suddenly the best front half and back half swimmer again? I doubt it.

Swimmer?
Reply to  jelly
3 years ago

Michael was a 31 year old zombie who 2 relays, and the 200 fly and 200 im, Schooling? Much younger and fresher in 2015, he came back in 26.3

1998
3 years ago

He’ll for sure win but WR? nah.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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