Schooling World Record Predictions: GMM presented by

Gold Medal Minute presented by

2016 Olympic champion Joseph Schooling is my kind of guy. Schooling let’s you know who he intends to beat and what records he wants to break.  Sports drama ensues.

Currently Michael Phelps‘ 100m butterfly world record is in Schooling’s crosshairs, but that “could” take a backseat to Schooling vs Dressel butterfly hype at 2017 FINA World Championships.  Frankly, I don’t know if Caeleb Dressel will even swim the race. 50m free conflicts with the 100m butterfly.   At this point, if Dressel finals and improves on his 100 butterfly U.S. World Trials swim from Indy, 50.8, that’s a success in my book.

The pressure’s on Schooling, however.  He’s on the record saying he wants Phelps’ 49.82 100m fly record from the 2009 World Championship in Rome–clocked in one of the greatest match-ups in history against Milorad Cavic.  In all fairness to Schooling, the 100m fly world record is a massive goal–almost pie-in-sky. Phelps ripped that swim in a rubberized floatation techsuit. Listening to Schooling explain his ambitions, it’s simply the next logical step in his career.


While I’d love to see a world record 100m fly from Schooling in Budapest, I don’t think it’s realistic right now. Phelps’ 49.82 was top-of-the-water-floated via tech and nearly six tenths faster than Schooling’s personal best–.57 to be precise.  Schooling’s PB is 50.39 flown in the finals of the 100 fly at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. If Schooling can shave any time off his 50.39, I think he wins.  Moreover, following Olympic gold with a World Championship win is a step forward career-wise.   If Schooling is feeling great, I’d love to see a 50.09, and that’s my prediction.  It’s within range after his 50.9 unshaven 100 fly at ATX Sectionals.  Conversely, I could see Schooling beating the field in 50.6, but I’m banking on fast final pushing Schooling’s to a PB.

What do you think it will take to win, and what do you think Schooling will clock?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of, a Swimming News website.

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Distance Swimmer

If schooling goes 50.5 I’d be surprised, let alone 50.09


Schooling is smart, again by this point in the meet most other swimmers will be tired with heavy schedules, no one can match his easy speed down first 50, his turn power and how he holds a low stroke rate and huge DPS down second 50.

He’s going a the least 50.5, how can’t he? He doesn’t care about 50fly and 100free he’ll use them as training and prep. 50.9 the other week, in a world champs final atmosphere he’s going faster.


Why are we saying that, despite taking a quarter of the year off of heavy training (accorgind to him Rio-December), he’s going to go faster than at Rio when his training was perfect for the entier quad and certainly that year? I just don’t get the argument. He just naturally goes faster every time he suits up?


Well 50.5 isn’t as fast as rio, he’s still getting naturally stronger, yeah ‘perfect prep’ for rio, but he will have been totally recovered physically and building off his rio base this last 7 months. He was faster at NCAA in the 100, can’t see how he’s going to be much slower than 50.5. He’s getting faster till he’s at least 25 by getting stronger, he’s done the work to race 3×100 fly’s. He’s not got a huge schedule of aerobic events and relays like many Americans, look at lochte in 2013, took time off filming his to show and still swam 15 races and all were great at 29, think schooling at 22 swimming 100fly will be fine. Texas… Read more »

attilla the runt

The “getting naturally stronger” only applies if you’re actually training (particularly resistance) as you’re aging up into the mid-20’s. I didn’t get the impression he was doing any serious training at all from Rio (beginning of August) to December. If you factor in the taper for Rio, he could have been at his weakest, in terms of power production, with 6 months of no serious strength/power training as late as January 2017. Remember, he got run down in the last 50 by Dressel in a 43 second race at NCAAs, and quit in the 200 fly, so not sure he is truly “Texas fit.” He might get to 50.5, but I could also see a 50.7 after three rounds.

dude 2.0

how about the reasoning that he just isn’t one of those guys you would bet against when it really matters. Dude is not afraid.

crooked donald

2017 NCAA 100 fly finals, 200 fly prelims. I guess NCAAs don’t matter anymore. Dead last in Rio 100 free semifinals.

crooked donald

LeClos can definitely match or exceed his easy speed and turn power. Didn’t you see LeClos 21.9 and 48.0 SCM 50 and 100 flys in December? LeClos also has more endurance — can actually do a competitive 200 LCM fly. Chad’s best is 0.17 worse than Schooling’s. It’s not a given Schooling wins, much less does 50.5.

Attila the Runt

To your point: while LeClos was setting world records and lighting up the 50-100-200 (making Shields look like he was standing still) at Windsor in December, Schooling was supposedly just getting back to serious training after Rio. So how again does Schooling do a best time, and LeClos is out of the discussion?


Chad for the win. Last time he beats Schooling.


Yeah Leclos is exceptional underwater I agree and haven’t suggested he’s out of the talk to win. He’s never been out 23.5 and struggles to break 24 on the 100, his stroke is more 200 dominated and I feel 6×200 and 2×100 prior to the final, will tax his anaerobic system to much, particularly with his turn power on 200free. This endurance point means nothing on the 100, schooling has the base and technique, endurance only relavent to survive the meet and do all the events he chooses. Based of schooling been fresher I feel he wins.

attilla the runt

LeClos was out in 23.72 in his 50.56 at the end of a long Kazan meet. That’s sure not struggling to break 24. He was out in 22.5 when he went 48.0 SCM in December. Schooling was out in 23.5 in the Kazan final, and LeClos passed him with a 0.7 sec faster back half. The endurance argument totally falls apart when you consider Tom Shields: he can do a fast 49 seconds (SCM 100 fly) but not a 51 sec LCM fly. Cavic, too. Phelps gets him in the last 5 meters.


Tom Shield does not hold water when he fatigues that’s a bad example. Schooling and Chad both do. Cavic v Phelps again a bad example, cavic pulled on train tracks straight down and was very 50/100m swimmer who slowed down and broke down, I doubt cavic and schooling have a similar physiology. Phelps pull phase under his body more natural and he mainstained speed. Don’t think the endurance side played a factor, shield can’t hold technique, fact, cavic was never going to play Phelps’s game he wouldn’t of been able to back end it no matter what, he was more fast twitch dominated. Do you think if cavic did more endurance work he’d of beat Phelps? Doubt he would of… Read more »

crooked donald

“Tom Shield does not hold water when he fatigues that’s a bad example.” Geez, did you see Schooling’s 1:45 200 fly at NCAAs? Now THAT’s not holding water when you’re fatigued.


Think schooling 200fly at NCAA was more I can’t be bothered and didn’t try.
Pritty sure he held water when he went 1.37.9.

crooked donald

Yeah, held water when he was training for 200’s (the 200 IM and fly as a freshman, 200 fly as sophomore). He’s been dropping the 200’s and picking up the 50 free. You made my point.

crooked donald

I think he’s quoting the SCM times because you keep going off on how fast-twitch/power/easy speed/great underwaters Schooling has. The SCM swims of LeClos prove he has all those in spades.


Schooling has improved on his back half since then. In Rio he came back 26.75, which was the fastest of the field. Even Michael didn’t come back as quick. Yes the race will be close, but I think Schooling has the edge with the better first 50

crooked donald

Michael was about 20 min removed from the 200 IM final where he had a statement swim. Of course Schooling beat him on the back half. And yes Schooling improved from Kazan to Rio on the back half because he was training up to 200’s in college. But now we’re talking Rio to Budapest, and a significant block of training missed, and giving up on the 200 fly altogether, SCY or LCM. As a reminder, Dressel ran Schooling down on the back half at NCAAs. Does a couple extra month’s hard training since then to now make him suddenly the best front half and back half swimmer again? I doubt it.


Michael was a 31 year old zombie who 2 relays, and the 200 fly and 200 im, Schooling? Much younger and fresher in 2015, he came back in 26.3


He’ll for sure win but WR? nah.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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