Like several events on the men’s side at U.S. Trials, especially the backstroke and butterfly events, the men’s 50 free has a logjam at the top, meaning multiple very worthy swimmers will miss a spot on the team in this event. Cullen Jones and Anthony Ervin have both been Olympic medalists in this event in the past, and were both finalists in London (Jones won silver), but they are on the outside looking in heading into trials in their best event.
Despite missing the 50 free spot on the Olympic team in 2012 Nathan Adrian has been America’s best in this event for the last seven years. Adrian has been a finalist at four consecutive World Championships, including a silver medal in 2015 and two 4th place finishes the two championships prior. With Adrian’s American record last summer of 21.37, along with how he has been swimming so far this year in-season (lights out), he has to be considered the odds on favorite heading into Omaha in both sprint free events.
The man predicted by many to take the other Olympic spot in this event isn’t Jones or Ervin, but rising star Caeleb Dressel. After winning the NCAA title in his freshman year, Dressel exploded as a sophomore this past season, swimming the six fastest 50 yard frees in history. He shattered Adrian’s American record of 18.66 by nearly half a
Caeleb Dressel celebrates after a new NCAA Record in the 100 free. (Photo Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)
second, with his fastest swim coming in at 18.20 to capture his second straight NCAA title. Success in yards doesn’t always translate well to long course, but Dressel proved himself in the big pool last summer winning the national title in 21.53, a time that would’ve medalled at the World Championships. The sky is the limit for Dressel, and this summer looks like it could be his international breakout.
Cullen Jones has been written off before and proved everyone wrong. After a very disappointing 2011 World Championships, Jones turned up at the 2012 Olympic Trials and showed he was in the best form of his life. He pulled out an individual berth in the 100 free, and followed that up winning the 50 free. He went onto finish 2nd at the Olympics in the 50 free, a long way from 20th at the World Championships just the year prior. Jones has been somewhat off again since 2012, failing to qualify for either the 2013 and 2015 World Championships. However there is little doubt Jones will be fast in Omaha. The
Cullen Jones – Day 1 prelims Toronto 2015 Pan Am Games
real question is whether or not he can get by the other American stars. The way Adrian and Dressel have been swimming recently, it may take under the American record of 21.37 to even qualify for the team.
Now 35 years old (on May 26), Anthony Ervin will be in tough to qualify in his bid for a third Olympic berth. Ervin, the 2000 Olympic gold medalist in this event, came back to the sport in time for the 2012 Olympics where he finished 5th in the 50. He got extremely hot in 2013, swimming the best times of his career before tailing off in 2015. Ervin missed the final in the 50 free at the World Championships in Kazan and had the slowest split on the shocking US 400 free relay that failed to final. He has moved from Cal to USC to SwimMac over a very short period of time, and will need to find his 2013 magic if he’s to have a chance of rivaling the likes of Adrian and Dressel here.
One man overlooked by many in the loaded 50 free field at Olympic Trials is Josh Schneider, mainly because he has never represented the US at a major international meet. Schneider has experienced a series of near misses in his attempts to qualify for major competitions, including 4th place at the 2012 Olympic Trials. His best time stills sits at 21.78 from the those 2012 Trials, so he’ll need a big improvement to challenge for a position. His work is cut out for him with Adrian (21.3), Jones and Ervin (21.4), and
Josh Schneider – Day 1 prelims Toronto 2015 Pan Am Games – Chris Tanouye/www.ChrisTanouye.com
Dressel (21.5) putting up much quicker times in the years since 2012.
Coming into Omaha as somewhat of a wildcard is Jimmy Feigen, who has followed up a breakout 2013 with a few subpar years. Feigen qualified for his first Olympic team in 2012 on the 400 free relay, and followed up with an individual silver medal in the 100 free at the 2013 World Championships behind Australia’s James Magnussen. In 2015 Feigen led off the disappointing 400 free relay and failed to make it out of the prelims in the 100 free. However, Feigen swam his fastest 50 free in three years in early 2016, a positive sign for the future. His best time stands at a quick 21.77 from 2009.
The other two men to look for in the final in a absolutely loaded event are Michael Chadwick and William Copeland. Chadwick, just 21, is knocking on the door but unlikely to be let in with the likes of Adrian, Dressel, Jones and co. at the helm. A swimmer for Mizzou in the NCAA, Chadwick had a breakout summer in 2015 including a sub-49 second 100 freestyle and a 22.03 50 free. The 50 time ranked him 6th in the U.S. for the 2015 season, putting him in prime position to final. He’ll have a real shot at Rio in the 100 free, where he is capable of a relay birth.
Copeland is up there with Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte at age 30, but has been doing some of his fastest swimming ever lately. Copeland swam his first best time in four years last summer at US Nationals in San Antonio, finishing 5th in the final. He has been putting up some consistent in-season times in 2016, including competing in Australia for a few meets. If Copeland can equal or better his San Antonio performance he’ll have a very good shot at making the final.
TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
|
SWIMMER |
BEST TIME (SINCE 2012) |
PREDICTED TIME IN OMAHA |
|
21.37 |
21.20 |
|
|
21.53 |
21.28 |
|
|
21.80 |
21.60 |
|
|
21.83 |
21.74 |
|
|
21.42 |
21.75 |
|
|
21.88 |
21.88 |
|
|
Michael Chadwick |
22.03 |
21.93 |
|
William Copeland |
22.25 |
22.08 |
Dark Horse: One man who could surprise in this event is Paul Powers, who cracked the 19-second barrier for the first time this year on his way to the B1G title swimming for the University of Michigan. Powers owns a personal best of 22.18 from the World University Games last summer where he won a bronze medal.
Prediction: I think Dressel’s start is the difference here. He will get out in front while everyone else struggles in the wave pool of all these giants diving in and flailing around.
The times do look about right though; as crazy as that sounds
Schneider knows the feeling of being third, it must be the worst feeling in the world. I think he will get the second spot even though some of the others are more talented. From what I have heard he has been working super hard in and out of the pool. I am very interested to see what he can do in a true taper. I know lifting inhibits swimming ability if you are lifting while trying to swim fast.
I think Schneider knows his chances of swimming the 50 in Rio are small, and I think in recent years he has focused on improving his 100 to try to get a relay berth for the 400 FR; I wouldn’t have thought he had a chance, but his relay performances at the Pan Am Games last year were excellent! I wish him good luck in 2016!
Totally right Dan – he might be in contention for the relay spot on the 400 free relay .
Jones over Schneider any day of the week!
I think Dressel will win at trials and be no slower than 21.3. I believe he is also going to be quicker in the 100 than many are anticipating.
For Omaha times, I concur with Swimswam, while my prediction for Rio:
Adrian and Dressel for joint golds at 21.05 Olympics Record.
Dressel has the best start, Adrian has more power and experience in LCM. They should logically qualify. I think that either one can beat Manaudou in Rio who doesn’t seem to be as sharp and self confident as in prior years.
I think your wrong about Ervin
what is the average height of all those guys?
Adrian 6″6 / Dressel ? / Schneider at least 6″3 . Peter Timmers from belgium 6″8 Like Grevers –
Josh Schneider is so big I would hate to make him angry
clear favorite Adrian/Dressel..thats ok…but predicted time a bit more optimistic…..may be 21.4/21.54 is more realistic.
These dreamy American trial times……hmmmm
What are your predictions then Stephen? Will any Americans improve or do a best time? Or do you think they’re all shackled to doing no better than their seed times? Adrian’s PB is a 21.3. Someone predicts him to go 21.2 and you’re incredulous! Obviously not everyone will be on their best form but there are personal bests and big breakthroughs at every Olympic trials. Maybe Adrian won’t do any PBs this year. Who knows. But a few of these “dreamy” predictions might be closer to reality than you imagine. I think you might be the one that’s dreaming if you don’t think (or want to believe) any Americans won’t progress in any races at trials.
Semis might be faster than finals .
That often happens at the US Olympic trials, especially in the deeper events, where they have to treat the semis as if they were a final to ensure themselves a place. It’s a good preparation in every sense for those who qualify.
In 2012 the only surprise packet was ledecky . This time she is the only sure thing ! Hence things are a lot tighter which may make some races tactical with slower times.
That 50m mens final will be churning water in the centre lanes & thus may allow an outer lane to sneak in clearer water?