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2016 Men’s NCAA Scoring Projections: Texas, Cal Outpacing Psych Sheets

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2016 MEN’S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS

Thanks to Price Fishback for running the projected scoring numbers for us this week.

Two days into the 2016 NCAA Championships, the top two returning teams from last year are vastly outperforming their projected scores from the psych sheets.

Currently leading the meet by 46, the Texas Longhorns have already outperformed their projected psych sheet score by 49 at this point. And with their divers providing a bigger boost than anyone else in the top 10, the meet seems to be the Longhorns’ to lose at this point.

That’s not to say there aren’t challengers. Cal has already moved up 67 points from its projected psych sheet score, the highest of any team in the meet. The Golden Bears were just 5th in psych sheet points, but have already jumped up to 3rd in the updated projections, which take into account tonight’s swims as well as Wednesday night’s 800 free relay.

Cal is just 20 points behind NC State in projected scores right now, erasing what was about a 100-point deficit on the original psych sheets. NC State is swimming well overall, but is down 15 points from where they were projected at this point.

Other teams making big gains from the psych sheets:

  • Cal, +67
  • Tennessee, +64
  • Texas, +49
  • Georgia, +30
  • Ohio State, +24

The teams with the biggest drops from their projected scores:

  • Auburn, -46.5
  • Michigan, -33
  • Indiana, -21
  • Florida, -20
  • NC State, -15

Here are the full numbers, courtesy of Price Fishback, who has been compiling and tracking this data for us through the whole NCAA Championship season:

Rank of New Prediction of Final Score TEAM Final ScoreThursday Final Score minus Psych throughThursday Psychon Fri Psychon Sat New Final Score Prediction Final Psych Sheet Prediction DivingThursday
1 tx 209 49 90 158 497 408 22
2 ncst 137 -15 97 128 396 377
3 cal 141 67 109 96 376 279
4 fl 163 -20 72 64 331 319
5 au 72.5 -46.5 70 94 258.5 283
6 in 62 -21 72 67 215 222
7 mi 90 -33 45 54 215 222
8 ga 68 30 61 48 205 147
9 al 68 1 55 57 182 179
10 lou 60 -3 64 28 176 155
11 mo 81 21 34 31 158 125
12 socal 53 6 46 25 142 118 19
13 tn 79 64 29 27 141 71 35
14 st 57.5 16.5 33 35 133.5 109 3
15 ohst 38 24 32 14 84 60 16
16 az 28 0 39 14 81 81 17
17 vt 11 -6 28 15 54 60
18 wi 23 4 0 20 53 39
19 socar 23 8 0 25 52 40
20 nc 2 -6 20 5 27 33
21 byu 12 1 6 6 24 23
22 penn 6 6 0 14 20 14
23 pr 8 -5 0 8 16 21
24 duke 0 0 15 0 15 15
25 lsu 0 0 14 0 14 14
26 miamifl 14 14 0 0 14 0 14
27 af 0 0 13 0 13 13
28 mn 4 -6 5 4 13 19 4
29 ut 9 8 0 4 13 5 6
30 va 0 0 0 13 13 13
31 wv 0 0 13 0 13 13
32 corn 0 0 0 11 11 11
33 pitt 11 11 0 0 11 0 11
34 flst 0 0 9 0 9 9
35 unlv 9 -5 0 0 9 14
36 io 0 -6 7 0 7 13
37 yale 0 0 0 7 7 7
38 cleve 0 0 6 0 6 6
39 nd 0 0

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PK Doesn't Like His New Name
8 years ago

It’s entirely possible that at the midpoint of the meet tomorrow that Texas will have won 9 of the first 10 swimming events.

That’s crazy.

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About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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