Who Are the Potential “Crown Busters” At Final World Cup Stop In Toronto?

2025 WORLD AQUATICS SWIMMING WORLD CUP – Toronto

The last stop of the World Cup series is coming up this weekend, and one of the major conversations around the meet will be the “Triple Crown” and the “Crown Busters”.

An athlete who wins the same events at all three stops will earn a “Triple Crown” and win a $10,000 prize. A “Crown Buster” is an athlete who finishes 1st for the first time in Toronto, beating a Triple Crown hopeful. These swimmers will be eligible for a $2,500 prize.

There are 15 athletes over 26 events (11 men’s events and 15 women’s events) who are eligible for Triple Crowns in Toronto. This is two more athletes and four more events than we saw last year going into the final meet, where three crowns were busted.

The athletes who are currently in the running for a Triple Crown:

Men

Women

Some potential “Crown Busters” are more likely than others. The men’s 50s are up in the air and could come down to hundredths of a second. Hubert Kos has won the last two 50 backstroke events but Kacper Stokowski and Thomas Ceccon were .01 and .03 behind him last weekend.

The men’s 50 fly has gone to Canada’s Ilya Kharun at the last two stops, but last season’s Triple Crown winner in the event, Noe Ponti will be looking to “bust” his crown. In Westmont, he finished just .11 behind Kharun and in Carmel, he was just .04 back.

Ponti is a popular name on the “Buster” side of the list. On top of the 50 fly, he is also the most likely athlete to upset Shaine Casas in the 100 IM. In Carmel, he finished 2nd by just under three tenths and in Westmont, he was just over three tenths back. He could also upset Kharun in the 200 fly, but that one seems less likely than the other two.

He will also be hunting a crown of his own with two wins in the men’s 100 fly, but there are a few athletes close behind him including Kharun, Josh Liendo, and Chad le Clos.

On the women’s side, perhaps the most shaky double crown winners are Regan Smith in the 100 back and Kaylee McKeown in the 200 back. Both broke World Records in their events last week in Westmont. The problem for them is that they both swim the same events, and are clearly in top backstroke form. Who can beat a World Record holder except another World Record holder?

Smith has the clear advantage over the field in the 200 fly, with nobody touching within two seconds of her either weekend. McKeown is also the favorite in her other event, the 50 back, but there is a lot more room for error in a 50 which makes the term “favorite” a little shaky.

There are a few “Crowns” that are pretty safe bets at this point in the series. Mollie O’Callaghan is the clear favorite in the 200 freestyle, after setting the World Record last weekend, and nobody is particularly close to her with the 2nd place finisher, Lani Pallister, coming in nearly two seconds back in Carmel and more than two seconds back in Westmont.

Pallister has two events of her own which she will be hunting the “crowns” in. She has won the 400 free and the longer 800/1500 free event at both meets so far, and she is the heavy favorite to win them again in Toronto. The margin of victory available in these events makes them some of the secure in terms of Triple Crown chances

Gretchen Walsh and Kate Douglass both have three potential crowns to win next weekend, and none of them seem up for grabs at this point. Walsh broke the World Record in the 50 fly in Carmel and Douglass took the 100 free WR last weekend in Westmont, and they have the potential to break records in all three of their individual events at the final stop.

The men only have Hubert Kos who could win three individual events, and as mentioned above, his 50 backstroke crown stands on shaky ground. Kos has Ceccon and Stokowski to compete with in the 100 and Ceccon in the 200 as well. Ceccon was about a second behind him in both, but as the long course World Record holder in the 100, we would be remiss to forget him as a potential “Buster”.

Shaine Casas has the 200 IM crown practically locked up with his two second victory in Westmont. He only won by three tenths in Carmel, but Leon Marchand was the runner-up and he will not be competing in Toronto.

Here are all the potential Triple Crown Winners, and the next seeded athletes or those who are most likely to “bust” their party:

Event Triple Crown Candidates
Potential “Crown Busters”
Men’s 100 Free Jack Alexy Chris Guiliano
Men’s 200 Free Luke Hobson Chris Guiliano
Men’s 50 Back Hubert Kos
Men’s 100 Back Hubert Kos
Men’s 200 Back Hubert Kos
Men’s 200 Breast Caspar Corbeau
Yamato Fukasawa, Yamato Ohashi, the entire nation of Japan
Men’s 50 Fly Ilya Kharun Noe Ponti
Men’s 100 Fly Noe Ponti
Men’s 200 Fly Ilya Kharun Noe Ponti
Men’s 100 IM Shaine Casas
Men’s 200 IM Shaine Casas Carson Foster
Women’s 50 Free Kasia Wasick
Alexandria Perkins, Mollie O’Callaghan
Women’s 100 Free Kate Douglass
Mollie O’Callaghan, Marrit Steenbergen
Women’s 200 Free Mollie O’Callaghan Lani Pallister
Women’s 400 Free Lani Pallister
Women’s 800/1500 Free Lani Pallister
Women’s 50 Back Kaylee McKeown
Gretchen Walsh*, Mollie O’Callaghan, Katharine Berkoff
Women’s 100 Back Regan Smith
Women’s 200 Back Kaylee McKeown Regan Smith
Women’s 100 Breast Kate Douglass
Women’s 200 Breast Kate Douglass Alex Walsh
Women’s 50 Fly Gretchen Walsh
Women’s 100 Fly Gretchen Walsh
Women’s 200 fly Regan Smith Ellen Walshe
Women’s 100 IM Gretchen Walsh Kate Douglass
Women’s 200 IM Alex Walsh Abbie Wood

*Scratched the event one of the two weekends and swam it the other

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Jason
8 months ago

Shin Ohashi, not Yamato ohashi – “entire nation of Japan” is a nice touch

(G)olden Bear
Reply to  Jason
8 months ago

When you forgot to include the M 200 BR in the original table, get called out for it, delete the comments, and then go sarcasm in the revised table. Weak.

Margo Schmargo
8 months ago

Best thing Ponti did was to stay in SUI.

Eagleswim
Reply to  Margo Schmargo
8 months ago

Akshually the only way international swimmers get fast is by swimming in the NCAA. Which is the only reason the USA doesn’t win every gold at Olympics and worlds.

Joel
Reply to  Eagleswim
8 months ago

With the exception of nearly all the Australian swimmers, the British swimmers, the Canadian swimmers ( Summer doesn’t swim NCAA), German swimmers, Russian swimmers, Italian swimmers, Chinese swimmers and Japanese swimmers. I missed a few of course.

Eagleswim
Reply to  Joel
7 months ago

I really thought people would be able to pick up on sarcasm it’s pretty funny

Avast
8 months ago

I kinda liked the old payout structure where swimmers were encouraged to do more than the same three events at each stop. Maybe next year when there’s a SC Worlds people can chase records there and go for more events at W Cup

Swimmingly Sorry
8 months ago

Noe Ponti’s smile lights up my day 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰

Rivercat
8 months ago

Kaylee and Regan have a coffee catch and discuss World Cup prize money and how to best support each other as rivals lol

Swimmingly Sorry
Reply to  Rivercat
8 months ago

Mutual benefit.

Kaylee agrees not to beat Regan in 100 back.

Regan agrees not to beat Kaylee in 50 and 200 back.

Both get to be dual triple crown (Regan in 100 back and 200 fly, Kaylee in 50 and 200 back)

Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
Reply to  Swimmingly Sorry
8 months ago

Gretchen Walsh plays crown buster in the W 50 BK ensuring Regan Smith third place overall.

Emily Se-Bom Lee
Reply to  Rivercat
8 months ago

could be viewed as a variant of the prisoner’s dilemma

Owlmando
8 months ago

Guillano, le clos, and foster not busting those crowns sorry. A walsh neither. Lani also looking too good. Kos is the most interesting storyline going into it!

Swimmingly Sorry
Reply to  Owlmando
8 months ago

I don’t get it how Alex Walsh is alway predicted highly and she never accomplished them.

Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
Reply to  Swimmingly Sorry
8 months ago

Alex Walsh is not in the same league (100 BR, 200 BR) as Kate Douglass.

Last edited 8 months ago by Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
gosharks
Reply to  Swimmingly Sorry
8 months ago

Relax. Perkins isn’t going to beat Walsh in either butterfly event but the potential still exists…

Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
Reply to  gosharks
8 months ago

Bosh!

snailSpace
Reply to  Owlmando
8 months ago

Tbh I don’t really see who even comes close to Kos in the 200 back (regardless of Shaine swimming it; he beat him by 3 seconds at the forst stop). And he won the 100 by close to 1 second at both stops. Bar messing up one of the aformentioned races he is only truly vulnerable in the 50. Casas could be an interesting addition to the 100, but he hasn’t gone a backstroke best time in ages (besides the LC 50).

Tani
8 months ago

I think it would be interesting to see Gretchen do the 200 IM at some point in short course. I think she would surprise everyone.

over_the_hill_swimmer
8 months ago

Summer is going to come in rested and bust the 200 Back / IM/ Fly, and Breast just for fun 🙂

Swimmingly Sorry
Reply to  over_the_hill_swimmer
8 months ago

Summer is not beating Kaylee in 200 back and not beating Douglas in 200 breast.

She’d bust Regan in 200 fly and easily bust Alex Walsh in IM.