SwimSwam’s 2023 Pre-NCAA Champion Picks (Men)

2023 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

Just like we did with the women’s meet last week, we have now updated our men’s picks for NCAAs. Back in September/October, we picked who we thought would win each event at NCAAs. Read in-depth about those picks here. A quick summary of the most common pick at the start of the season can be seen in the chart below:

SwimSwam’s Top Pick
50 Free Bjorn Seeliger, Cal
100 Free Josh Liendo, Florida
200 Free Luke Hobson, Texas
500 Free Luke Hobson, Texas/ Jake Magahey, Georgia
1650 Free David Johnston, Texas
100 back Luca Urlando, Georgia
200 Back Destin Lasco, Cal
100 Breast Max McHugh, Minnesota
200 Breast Leon Marchand, ASU
100 Fly Andrei Minakov, Stanford
200 Fly Luca Urlando, Georgia
200 IM Leon Marchand, ASU
400 IM Leon Marchand, ASU
200 Medley Relay Florida
400 medley Relay Indiana
200 Free relay Florida
400 free relay NC State
800 free relay Texas

Things have changed throughout the season. Notably, Luca Urlando of Georgia was the most popular pick at the beginning of the season in the 200 fly, but Urlando will not be at NCAAs due to a shoulder injury.

Compared to the women’s meet where there were only three unanimous picks, the men’s meet has a lot more. Leon Marchand was picked by all writers to win both the 200 breast and 400 IM. Max McHugh of Minnesota was picked to win the 100 breast, Destin Lasco of Cal was picked to win the 200 back, Jordan Crooks of Tennessee was picked to win the 50 free, and Grant House of ASU was picked to win the 200 free.

Interestingly, the most “indecisive” event was the 100 fly where three writers each picked Andrei Minakov (Stanford), Youssef Ramadan (VT), and Josh Liendo (Florida) to win.

Updated Picks:

SwimSwam’s Top Pick Highest 2022 Returner Anya Braden James Robert YanYan Sophie Spencer Riley Reid
50 Free Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Brooks Curry, LSU Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee Jordan Crooks, Tennessee
100 Free Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Brooks Curry, LSU Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Brooks Curry, LSU Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal Bjorn Seeliger, Cal
200 Free Grant House, ASU Grant House, Arizona State Grant House, ASU Grant House, ASU Grant House, ASU Grant House, Arizona State Grant House, ASU Grant House, ASU Grant House, ASU Grant House, Arizona State Grant House, ASU
500 Free Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia Luke Hobson, Texas Luke Hobson, TX Luke Hobson, Texas Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia Jake Magahey, Georgia
1650 Free David Johnston, Texas Will Gallant, NC State David Johnston, Texas David Johnston, Texas David Johnston, Texas Will Gallant, NC State David Johnston, Texas David Johnston, Texas David Johnston, Texas David Johnston, Texas Will Galant, NC State
100 back Adam Chaney, Florida Kacper Stokowski, NC State Adam Chaney, Florida Destin Lasco, Cal Adam Chaney, Florida Adam Chaney, Florida Destin Lasco, Cal Adam Chaney, Florida Destin Lasco, Cal Kacper Stokowski, NC State Adam Chaney, Florida
200 Back Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal Destin Lasco, Cal
100 Breast Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota Max McHugh, Minnesota
200 Breast Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU
100 Fly Andrei Minakov, Stanford/ Youssef Ramadan, VT/ Josh Liendo, Florida Andrei Minakov, Stanford Youssef Ramadan, Virginia Tech Andrei Minakov, Stanford Josh Liendo, Florida Josh Liendo, Florida Youssef Ramadan, VT Josh Liendo, Florida Andrei Minakov, Stanford Andrei Minakov, Stanford Youssef Ramadan, VT
200 Fly Brendan Burns, Indiana Brendan Burns, Indiana Brendan Burns, Indiana Gabriel Jett, Cal Gabriel Jett, Cal Aiden Hayes, NC State Brendan Burns, Indiana Brendan Burns, Indiana Brendan Burns, Indiana Gabriel Jett, Cal Alexander Colson, ASU
200 IM Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Carson Foster, Texas Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU
400 IM Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU Leon Marchand, ASU
200 Medley Relay Florida Florida Florida Florida NC State Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida
400 medley Relay Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida ASU
200 Free relay Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida Florida
400 free relay Cal Cal Cal Cal Florida ASU Cal Cal Cal ASU
800 free relay ASU ASU Texas ASU Texas ASU ASU ASU ASU ASU
Potential Upset Charlie Hawke wins the 200 free. Not the craziest upset in the world given his seed time, but he’s got the 1:31s dialled in and will keep House on his toes. Texas, out of the running for the team title by the last event, goes for broke, and wins the 400 free relay to close out the meet. That’ll make them 3-3 in that event when Cal wins the meet since 2019. Carson Foster beating Leon Marchand in the 400 IM is very much possible. Cal keeps the 200 back title in the team–but it’s Hugo Gonzalez who wins it.
It’s a bit obvious, since he is the defending champion in the event, but I’m going with Hugo Gonzalez beating Leon Marchand in the 400 IM.

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AndySUP
11 months ago

Braden should have in his potential upset that Leon might beat Carson in the 200 IM.

That is not going to happen if Carson just saves himself by cruising the 400IM for an easy 3:32 3rd place.

Noah
11 months ago

Keep sleeping on Magahey in the mile…14:24 PB🤫

Horninco
11 months ago

Robert, Texas will not win the 400 Free relay. I love some symmetry, but that just isn’t going to happen in any universe.

PFA
11 months ago

Relay night begins with with Texas likely defending their 800 free relay title but ASU giving them a race the entire way with a few sub 1:30 splits in this race. Next Florida wins the 200 medley relay becoming the first team under 1:21. Someone splits sub 20 leading off the relay either Bjorn, Adam or Kacper.

Horninco
Reply to  PFA
11 months ago

Medley comes first tonight

PFA
Reply to  Horninco
11 months ago

my mistake flip the 2 but my predictions still stand.

Leon’s Dirty Undies
11 months ago

Braden, I’m interested to know what made you pick Carson foster, who has never broken 1:40, over the NCAA record holder in the 200 IM.

ooo
Reply to  Leon’s Dirty Undies
11 months ago

Back to breast DQ ?

ArtVanDeLegh10
Reply to  Leon’s Dirty Undies
11 months ago

I’d be surprised if Carson breaks into the top 3, let alone wins it. Marchand, Lasco, and Hugo are much faster in this than Carson is. It’s too short for Carson.

Noah
Reply to  ArtVanDeLegh10
11 months ago

Colles Marti and Polonsky have also both been sub 1:40

Horninco
Reply to  Leon’s Dirty Undies
11 months ago

Braden, respectfully, put the edibles down. Carson isn’t wining the 200 IM. And I’m a huge Carson fan.

Joel Lin
11 months ago

Next level predictions:

  1. Bear season begins with a sub 20.0 bjackstroke split.
  2. McHugh repeats as NCAA champion & breaks the American record in the 100 breast, then immediately announces his retirement from swimming to sign a professional ice hockey contract with a Minnesota Wild’s NHL minor league affiliate club in Moose Jaw Saskatchewan.
  3. Bob Bowman holds a laminated copy of his minestrone soup recipe close to Mike Bottom’s checkered shirt & the lighted laminate reflection reveals a nuclear fusion net energy gain function formula discovery. Rowdy Gaines subsequently nominates Bowman for a Nobel Prize.
  4. Bears repeat, Dave Durden stuns the swimming community by tearfully announcing his retirement from the sport with immediate effect so that he may pursue his
… Read more »

RealSlimThomas
Reply to  Joel Lin
11 months ago

5.While he has enjoyed his fruitful and dominant NBA career, Lebron James takes to the bulkhead before the first heat of the 400 free relay takes off Saturday night to announce he will be attending SMU in the fall on a full swimming scholarship.
6.Only relay American records will be broken at this year’s NCAAs.

Andrew
11 months ago

No love for Burns, nothing new lol

Swimmka
11 months ago

I am wondering if money would be in the bet ( ie 1000 USD/winner) would it be the same pick? My guess no one would be so crazy not to pick Marchand for all IM events😉 and ASU for 800 free relay too.

Admin
Reply to  Swimmka
11 months ago

I mean.

It depends on the odds, right?

PK Doesn't Like His Long Name
Reply to  Braden Keith
11 months ago

I believe he’s saying something like had you all bet some amount of money on who can get the most picks correct, would your picks have changed? And would everyone have just taken the favorites in everything?

The answer to latter is “it’s complicated”. The way to win something like this is to either nail the exact upset that occurs (think picking someone else against Marchand) as that gains you basically a full point on the field, or by hitting all the coinflips (like the 100 fly) exactly right. The likely winner would probably hit the midpoint of those two things-if I was building a list and saw your guys picks, I would almost assuredly be aiming at trying to… Read more »

mds
Reply to  Braden Keith
11 months ago

Was just wondering if Braden and Carson are drinkin’ buddies.

Willswim
Reply to  Swimmka
11 months ago

I think you’re underestimating how fast Texas 800 free relay can be. I think they’re gonna beat ASU. I guess we’ll all find out in a few hours.

mds
Reply to  Willswim
11 months ago

On the 800 Free Relay pick, there are a lot of folk just worshipping at the altar of Texas past without doing any rational analysis. Many of these folks say, 3 of 4 back, they’ve gotta win it. Very few acknowledge that the one not back is Drew Kibler, last year’s 200 winner and LCM Worlds finalist, no offense intended toward Mr. Larson. They could still win it but ….

Horninco
Reply to  mds
11 months ago

Yeah the ASU relay looks stout. Texas will be faster than expected (Larson 1:31.8, Carrozza 1:31.00, Carson 1:30.5, Hobson 1:30.0) but I expect ASU to just squeak by Texas with a Leon 1:29,00 anchor

Willswim
Reply to  mds
11 months ago

🤭

About Anya Pelshaw

Anya Pelshaw

Anya has been with SwimSwam since June 2021 as both a writer and social media coordinator. She was in attendance at the 2022 and 2023 Women's NCAA Championships writing and doing social media for SwimSwam. Currently, Anya is pursuing her B.A. in Economics and a minor in Government & Law at …

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