Scoring the Psych Sheets: Texas Projected Favorites, NC State 30 Back

While the official invites for the 2016 NCAA Championships aren’t expected to come out until Wednesday, the release of the pre-selection sheets on Tuesday shares enough information (namely, top 16 seeds in each event) to come up with a first round of projected scoring for this year’s meet.

Below is a breakdown of the points awarded for each event at the NCAA Championships:

A Final Points For Individual Events

1. 20 (40 relays)
2. 17 (34 relays)
3. 16 (32 relays)
4. 15 (30 relays)
5. 14 (28 relays)
6. 13 (26 relays)
7. 12 (24 relays)
8. 11 (22 relays)

B Final Points For Individual Events

1. 9 (18 relays)
2. 7 (14 relays)
3. 6 (12 relays)
4. 5 (10 relays)
5. 4 (8 relays)
6. 3 (6 relays)
7. 2 (4 relays)
8. 1 (2 relays)

Note that these scores don’t include diving points. Among the highly-ranked swimming programs that are expected to pick up big diving points as well are #1 Texas, #7 Indiana, #12 USC, #13 Stanford,#14 Arizona, and #15 Tennessee.

Aside from that, the psych sheet scoring shows an expected Texas team on top, 30 projected points ahead of the fastest-rising team in the country from NC State. North Carolina State won’t have any divers at NCAAs, and Texas will have at least two (with chances to score big points), so the more realistic projection expands that gap to a huge 90 points.

Also keep in mind that last year, when Texas won the title by 129 points, they were only seeded to score the 2nd-most points, 3 behind USC.

Also lurking as the projected 5th-place team this year is the Cal Golden Bears, who won the 2011, 2012, and 2014 NCAA titles and have placed in the top 2 at each of the last 6 NCAA Championship meets. Last year, they were projected to finish 6th, put outscored that projection by 127.5 points to come in as runners-up.

Also rising back to the top of the rankings are the Auburn Tigers. The dominant team of the first decade of the 2000s, Auburn hasn’t finished higher than 6th place since winning the NCAA title in 2009. Despite that slide, they’ve generally performed similarly to psych sheet projections at NCAAs, and while they’ve graduated their top diver Fraser McKean from last year, they’re still projected to finish 4th (without much in the way of big-name divers lurking behind them).

See the projection below.

Team Projected Score
1 Texas-ST 407.5
2 NC State-NC 377
3 Florida-FL 319.5
4 Auburn-SE 283.5
5 California-PC 279.5
7 Michigan-MI 223.5
6 Indiana-IN 221.5
8 Alabama-SE 179.5
9 Louisville-KY 151.5
10 Georgia-GA 146
11 Missouri-MV 124.5
12 Southern Cali-CA 115.5
13 Stanford-PC 109
14 Arizona-AZ 79
15 Tennessee-SE 70.5
16 Ohio St-OH 60
17 Virginia Tech-VA 58.5
19 Wisconsin-WI 39.5
18 South Carolina-SC 39
20 UNC-NC 33
21 Brigham Young-UT 23
22 Princeton-NJ 21
23 Minnesota-MN 17.5
24 Purdue-IN 16
25 Duke-NC 15
26 Harvard-NE 14
27 UNLV (M)-CA 14
28 Penn-MA 14
29 LSU-LA 14
30 Iowa-IA 13
32 Air Force (M)-CO 13
31 West Virginia-WV 12.5
33 Virginia-VA 12
34 Florida St-FL 9
35 Cornell-NI 9
36 Yale-CT 7
37 Notre Dame-IN 6
38 Cleveland State-LE 6
39 Univ of Utah-UT 5
40 Arizona St-AZ 4
41 Denver-CO 1.5
42 George Washington-PV 1

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PK

Indiana/Michigan backwards?

Oopsie

Yeah cause Indiana won B1G tens

oopsie1

Michigan Won B1G tens…

ctweymou

If only IU had their divers this year! Add another 80 points easily.

weirdo

but they don’t….

CTWEYMOU

Duh! Which is why I said, “If only…..”.

Harry Boyle

Just think that an ACC school, NC State is projected to finish second. in swimming. The same school is ranked number two in NCAA wrestling. It has been a long time if ever that the ACC has developed a reputation in minor sports. The conference has done well in BB and FB so far this season. Watch out for this sleeping conference.

NC Swim Fan

Huh? M and W Soccer, M and W Lacrosse, Field Hockey, Tennis, Baseball … just a few sports where the ACC has been elite, if not dominant for the past 2 decades.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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