SwimSwam’s first men’s NCAA Power Rankings came out two weeks ago. With the first rankings now out, we’ve decided to let the public have a little say in what they think will happen.
In our new series called “over/unders” we will use the comment section to allow the public to have a voice. If you think the team will do better than or equal to our pick you will use the + (upvote), if you think the team will do worse than our pick, you will use the – (downvote).
- Example: If you think the Georgia men will finish 7th or higher, hit the + to upvote, if you think they will finish 8th or lower hit the – to downvote.
Over/under is a typical wager used in sports-books. With this, no money will be involved. Simply put, we do the rankings, you have fun and upvote or downvote what we picked, have some friendly debate in the comments.
SwimSwam’s Power Rankings (Men)
| Rank | Team |
2025 NCAA Finish
|
| 1 | Texas | 1 |
| 2 | Indiana | 3 |
| 3 | Florida | 4 |
| 4 | Arizona State | 6 |
| 5 | Cal | 2 |
| 6 | NC State | 9 |
| 7 | Georgia | 7 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 5 |
| 9 | Virginia | 32 |
| 10 | Michigan | 11 |
| 11 | Stanford | 8 |
| 12 | LSU | 19 |
| 13 | Ohio State | 16 |
| 14 | Louisville | 14 |
| 15 | Purdue | 17 |
| 16 | USC | 15 |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 12 |
| 18 | Florida State | 18 |
| 19 | UNC | 23 |
| 20 | Kentucky | 20 |
| 21 | Virginia Tech | 10 |
| 22 | Yale | 20 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 22 |
| 24 | Georgia Tech | 25 |
| 25 | SMU | 35 |
| HM | Army | |
| HM | Princeton |
Last Week’s Results:
| Rank | Team | Upvotes | Downvotes |
Undervalued (>1), Overvalued (<1)
|
| 1 | Virginia | 142 | 20 | 7.10 |
| 2 | Stanford | 85 | 42 | 2.02 |
| 3 | Texas | 90 | 40 | 2.25 |
| 4 | Cal | 77 | 46 | 1.67 |
| 5 | Indiana | 23 | 105 | 0.22 |
| 6 | Tennessee | 69 | 46 | 1.50 |
| 7 | NC State | 75 | 49 | 1.53 |
| 8 | Michigan | 83 | 24 | 3.46 |
| 9 | Louisville | 85 | 18 | 4.72 |
| 10 | Florida | 41 | 61 | 0.67 |
| 11 | USC | 28 | 43 | 0.65 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 22 | 54 | 0.41 |
| 13 | UNC | 11 | 80 | 0.14 |
| 14 | Georgia | 70 | 20 | 3.50 |
| 15 | Miami (FL) | 6 | 81 | 0.07 |
Based on the upvotes and downvotes on Sunday, November 2nd, people agree with SwimSwam’s ranking that the Virginia women will win their 6th straight NCAA title. The most undervalued teams according to the public appear to be Louisville, Michigan, and Georgia while the most overvalued teams appear to be Miami-FL, UNC, and Indiana.
Arizona just beat USC by a decent margin.
True, though with the Chmielewski brothers, USC still might have more NCAA scoring potential. But Tomas Lukminas looks like he’s headed for a huge year, so Arizona probably jumps into the next rankings.
USC diver Moritz is a likely double A finalist as well.
Where is Alabama? Was the tri-meet considered between LSU, FSU and Alabama? Those results would definitely support Alabama being ranked, especially above FSU and slightly below LSU.
Lots of people voting the under on these. Not arguing with any of them. I just think it’s interesting. Are site commenters more pessimistic than the writers? Are the writers over hyped on some teams? Will all the rankings be upended by mid-season additions? (Will Cal have a likely scorer bumped from the meet because they don’t fully taper for conference and a slower WAC champion gets the spot?)
Commenters have always been more pessimistic than the writers. Given all the downvotes I’m curious as to who exactly everyone thinks is going to finish second (and who on Earth is hitting the under on Texas winning)
Part of the fun of this series from our side is to point out how unrealistic the comments can be. The ‘fans’ would simultaneously have 45 teams in the top 25 and 12 teams in the top 25.
Everyone always whines about such-and-such team being too low, but they never really have a good point to make about who they’d bump out.
In years past, SwimSwam has scored out a potential meet with swimmers’ best times. I think that would help people see how much different the landscape is from last year. It won’t be super accurate by the end of the year, but as an exercise, I think it would open a lot of eyes. At least those eyes attached to people willing to open them.
For sure. Will see if I can get the data guys to work on that.
Y’all are real for that. I’d love to see the commenters put their top 25s to paper the way you guys do
People are just voting against teams they don’t like.
Princeton ++
Another glitch in my previous comment: the ASU athlete who was second, though under the previous MPAC record in the 100 Free, split :40.53 anchoring the last relay, not :40.54.
Oh yeah. I forgot to mention a :43.55 MPAC record 100 SCY Fly.
Another effort worthy of note, in my opinion.
We might have a better understanding of how to analyze top 10 choices if a blurb on the ASU v USC M/W meet last Saturday was published.
MEN
Nationally significant swims, included:
— a 2nd best 50 Fly relay leg performance (leader’s :18.79, surpassed only by his own :18.78)
— a Mona Plummer Aquatic Center (MPAC) pool record (1:39.64 200 SCY Back by Marchand) falling to a swimmer who dropped his PB from 1:45.73 to 1:39.59, slotting in at #2 nationally; will it adjust his Championship meet choices?
— a sophomore, not invited to ’25 NCAA or even seeded in fastest heat against USC, joining the sub-19 second club in the 50 free
— another transfer, with Invited… Read more »
Jordan Tiffany’s breast swims caught my eye. That’s gnarly. Wish he could swim LCM
Gnarly. I like it!
Remi Fabiani had already gone 18.89 in the 50 free this season, not his first time under 19.
I wasn’t talking about Fabiani on the newly under-19 50 free subject, but he did well Saturday, with :18.99 in the 50 and :18.30R on Medley and :41.60 flat start 100 (now #2 on pool Top-10) and :40.53R 100 free anchoring last relay on Saturday.
The newcomer to the sub-19 club was sophomore David “Tolu” Young @ :18.98. He represents Fiji internationally and finished high school (Curtis Senior High School) in the Seattle-Tacoma area of Washington state.
Young swam in heat two, after the top heat was Kharun (:18.54), Fabiani (:18.99), Palmer (:19.39) and Kulow (:19.43). Tolu also had a 50 Breaststroke relay leg of :23.78R and finished the meet with a PB :41.66R 100 Free relay leg, rounding… Read more »
I think MDS is referring to Tolu Young. 18.98 from heat #2.
Deleted