Swimulator has two methods for scoring out a conference meet, using swimmer’s best time so far this season or a swimmer’s average time in each event so far this season. How does each perform? Which is better? To answer this I looked at 10 D1 men’s conferences and compared the Swimulator scores last season through 1/24/16 for the average and top times to the actual scores at conference meets (which include diving, so there’s some unaccounted for variance).
The average times performed a bit better (though both methods performed pretty well). A regression of average time scores on actual scores gives an R^2 of .85; whereas, a regression of top time scores on actual scores give an R^2 of .79 (R^2 is the % of variance in the data accounted for in the regression). I also compared team’s places with each projection method to their actual place. Average time was again a bit better with and average place miss of 1.1 with a standard deviation of 1.1 vs an average place miss of 1.2 with a standard deviation of 1.1 for top times.