Cedarburg and Edgewood Lead Wisconsin HS Girls into State Meets

This weekend was Sectionals weekend in Wisconsin girls high school swimming. Besides crowning champions of each individual section, state qualifiers were awarded after the conclusion of the last pre-championship level of high school swimming.

Given those, we can learn quite a bit about what to expect next weekend. Scoring out the D1 psych sheet gives Cedarburg a slim 194-191.5 lead over Middleton (on a scored psych sheet, margins that close are best viewed as ties). Notably, Cedarburg led Middleton 265-254.5 on the psych sheet headed into the meet last year, and Middleton won the meet 313.5-242 over Cedarburg.  Middleton lead the way this year with 15 individual qualifiers. Next are Arrowhead with 14, Waukesha South with 13, and Sun Prairie with 12. Cedarburg have 9.

13 teams got the maximum 3 relays into the meet. However, Middleton wasn’t one of them. They DQ’d their 400 free relay and therefore didn’t qualify that event. This means Middleton will need to build a substantial lead before the final event, otherwise their title defense could be upset by a dramatic final event comeback. In the psych sheet projection, Cedarburg trail Middleton 160-191.5 going into the 400 free relay, but Cedarburg’s 34 points for their #2 seed push them over the top.

No D1 swimmer has 2 top seeds, but 3 swimmers have a 1 seed and a 2 seed: Hannah Aegerter of Middleton (200 free-1st, 500 free-2nd), Kennedy Gilbertson of Stevens Point (100 free-1st, 100 back-2nd), and Grace Bennin of Verona Area/Mt Horeb (100 breast-1st, 200 IM-2nd).

Scoring the D2 psych sheet gives Edgewood a massive lead and makes them the favorites to win their 4th straight team title. Edgewood project to 313 points, well ahead of 2nd place McFarland who have 207. Edgewood got 15 individual swims into the meet. Next best are Whitnall with 10. McFarland have 9. 6 teams got the maximum 3 relays in.

McFarland’s Alexandra Moderski (50 free, 100 free) and Tomahawk’s Kylee Theiler (200 free, 500 free) each hold the top seed in 2 events and will be looking for double titles on Friday.

Below I compiled score projections, and for the top 10 teams, seeded event scores and score progression projections. D2 data is below D1. Below the team data is individual points projections for each division. Obviously this will all change significantly next weekend, but this is a good baseline to start from.

2018 Sectional Champions & Top 3:

Division I (Big Schools)

  • Cedarburg Sectional – Cedarburg 361, Brookfield East 327, Menomonee Falls/Hamilton 262
  • Greenfield Sectional – Greenfield/Pius XI Catholic 313, Badger Co-op 299.5, Burlington Co-op 256.5
  • Middleton Sectional – Middleton 317, Sun Prairie 312, Madison West 291
  • Neenah Sectional – Bay Port 341, Neenah 297, Appleton North 280
  • Waukesha South/Mukwonago Sectional – Arrowhead 380, Waukesha South/Mukwonago 360, Muskego 334.5
  • Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln Sectional – Stevens Point 398, DC Everest 336.5, Hudson 325

Division II (Small Schools)

  • Ashwaubenon Sectional – Sturgeon Bay Co-op 325, Ashwaubenon 291, Plymouth 285
  • Baraboo Sectional – Edgewood 369, McFarland 311, Baraboo 248
  • Colby/Abbotsford Sectional – Merrill 267.5, Tomahawk 265, Wausau East 262
  • New Berlin Eisenhower Sectional – Greendale 334, Whitefish Bay 312, Whitnall 311

Team Data

D1

Score Projections

Seeded Points Seeded Individual Points Seeded Relay Points # of Individual Swims # of Relays
Cedarburg 194 100 94 9 3
Middleton 191.5 129.5 62 15 2
Sun Prairie 163 57 106 12 3
Stevens Point 158 84 74 9 3
Arrowhead 155 105 50 14 3
Muskego 142 76 66 8 3
Brookfield East 140 70 70 9 2
Waukesha South/Mukwonago 138.5 76.5 62 13 3
Verona Area/Mount Horeb 138 54 84 8 3
Madison West 99 59 40 11 3
Madison Memorial 85 37 48 9 3
Bay Port 82 60 22 5 2
Menomonee Falls/Hamilton 67.5 37.5 30 4 3
Neenah 63 53 10 6 2
Green Bay Southwest Co-op 61 25 36 3 2
Waukesha West/CathMem 44 32 12 3 3
Germantown 41 17 24 7 3
Hartford Union/Slinger 36 26 10 3 1
Appleton North 34.5 26.5 8 4 2
D.C. Everest 32.5 26.5 6 5 1
Greenfield/Pius XI Catholic 32 32 0 2 2
Hudson 31.5 27.5 4 3 3
Milton 20 20 0 2 1
Kenosha Indian Trail 19.5 19.5 0 2 1
Waukesha North/Kettle Moraine 19 11 8 2 2
Oak Creek 18 18 0 3 0
Racine Case 17 17 0 1 0
Wauwatosa West 16 16 0 4 1
De Pere/West De Pere 16 16 0 3 2
Waunakee 14 12 2 5 2
Homestead 13.5 13.5 0 3 2
Madison La Follette 12 12 0 2 0
Kenosha Tremper 11 11 0 2 0
Eau Claire Memorial 5 5 0 3 0
Brookfield Central 5 5 0 3 1
Janesville Craig 5 5 0 1 0
Franklin 3 3 0 2 0
DeForest 2 0 2 3 1
Racine Horlick 0 0 0 1 0
Appleton West/Kimberly 0 0 0 1 0
Divine Savior Holy Angels 0 0 0 1 0
Nicolet 0 0 0 1 2
Fond du Lac 0 0 0 2 0
Badger Co-op 0 0 0 2 0
West Bend West/East 0 0 0 2 2
Oconomowoc 0 0 0 2 0
Oshkosh North/Lourdes Academy 0 0 0 1 0
Chilton Co-op 0 0 0 1 0

Projected Event Scores

Cedarburg Middleton Sun Prairie Stevens Point Arrowhead Muskego Brookfield East Waukesha South/Mukwonago Verona Area/Mount Horeb Madison West
1 mtr Diving 0 0 0 0 20 6 13 0 0 0
200 Medley Relay 30 28 26 32 22 18 40 6 34 12
200 Freestyle 0 23 0 4 16 25.5 0 14.5 0 0
200 IM 4 19 16 3 11 0 0 15 17 0
50 Freestyle 34 5 17 3 13 0 2 7 0 11
100 Butterfly 6 7 0 24 0 16.5 20 0 10 20
100 Freestyle 13 0 17 20 9 6 0 16 0 11
500 Freestyle 7 36 0 2 36 6 0 24 0 1
200 Freestyle Relay 30 34 40 16 4 16 0 28 32 24
100 Backstroke 0 10 0 17 0 16 35 0 7 16
100 Breaststroke 36 29.5 7 11 0 0 0 0 20 0
400 Freestyle Relay 34 0 40 26 24 32 30 28 18 4

Projected Score Progression

Cedarburg Middleton Sun Prairie Stevens Point Arrowhead Muskego Brookfield East Waukesha South/Mukwonago Verona Area/Mount Horeb Madison West
1 mtr Diving 0 0 0 0 20 6 13 0 0 0
200 Medley Relay 30 28 26 32 42 24 53 6 34 12
200 Freestyle 30 51 26 36 58 49.5 53 20.5 34 12
200 IM 34 70 42 39 69 49.5 53 35.5 51 12
50 Freestyle 68 75 59 42 82 49.5 55 42.5 51 23
100 Butterfly 74 82 59 66 82 66 75 42.5 61 43
100 Freestyle 87 82 76 86 91 72 75 58.5 61 54
500 Freestyle 94 118 76 88 127 78 75 82.5 61 55
200 Freestyle Relay 124 152 116 104 131 94 75 110.5 93 79
100 Backstroke 124 162 116 121 131 110 110 110.5 100 95
100 Breaststroke 160 191.5 123 132 131 110 110 110.5 120 95
400 Freestyle Relay 194 191.5 163 158 155 142 140 138.5 138 99

D2

Score Projections

Seeded Points Seeded Individual Points Seeded Relay Points # of Individual Swims # of Relays
Edgewood 313 193 120 15 3
McFarland 207 115 92 9 3
Tomahawk 183 83 100 7 3
Baraboo 128 82 46 8 2
Greendale 127 53 74 4 3
Merrill 120 64 56 5 2
Whitnall 106 81 25 10 3
Monroe/New Glarus 106 64 42 5 2
Whitefish Bay 101 62 39 8 2
Rice Lake 94 22 72 3 3
Wausau East 74 24 50 3 2
Jefferson/Cambridge 71 43 28 4 1
Stoughton 62 34 28 2 2
Whitewater 59 43 16 3 2
Sauk Prairie 58 10 48 2 3
Shorewood 55 23 32 4 2
Monona Grove 49 31 18 5 2
Ashwaubenon 49 43 6 6 2
River Falls 48 48 0 4 0
Menomonie 38 38 0 3 0
Fort Atkinson 35 35 0 3 0
Grafton 34 20 14 3 1
New Berlin Eisenhower 31 31 0 4 0
Medford 31 27 4 3 1
Plymouth 23 23 0 5 0
Sturgeon Bay Co-op 20 12 8 4 2
Edgerton 18 18 0 2 0
Seymour 17 17 0 1 0
Rhinelander 15 15 0 2 0
Portage 14 14 0 2 0
Black River Falls/Blair-Taylor 13 13 0 1 0
Ladysmith Co-op 10 0 10 0 1
Platteville/Lancaster 9 9 0 2 0
Kohler Co-op 6 4 2 1 1
Delavan-Darien/WisSchool-Deaf 1 1 0 1 0

Projected Event Scores

Edgewood McFarland Tomahawk Baraboo Greendale Merrill Whitnall Monroe/New Glarus Whitefish Bay Rice Lake
1 mtr Diving 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0
200 Medley Relay 40 30 32 34 24 0 9 16 9 28
200 Freestyle 11 0 20 0 14 12 1 0 20 0
200 IM 25 0 15 27 0 0 15 20 7 0
50 Freestyle 47 20 1 0 12 13 0 0 0 9
100 Butterfly 28 0 0 17 12 0 28 0 10 0
100 Freestyle 37 41 2 0 0 11 0 0 6 0
500 Freestyle 7 0 20 0 15 13 0 14 14 0
200 Freestyle Relay 40 30 34 0 22 32 8 0 0 26
100 Backstroke 29 20 12 0 0 15 6 30 5 2
100 Breaststroke 9 34 13 38 0 0 1 0 0 11
400 Freestyle Relay 40 32 34 12 28 24 8 26 30 18

Projected Score Progression

Edgewood McFarland Tomahawk Baraboo Greendale Merrill Whitnall Monroe/New Glarus Whitefish Bay Rice Lake
1 mtr Diving 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0
200 Medley Relay 40 30 32 34 24 0 39 16 9 28
200 Freestyle 51 30 52 34 38 12 40 16 29 28
200 IM 76 30 67 61 38 12 55 36 36 28
50 Freestyle 123 50 68 61 50 25 55 36 36 37
100 Butterfly 151 50 68 78 62 25 83 36 46 37
100 Freestyle 188 91 70 78 62 36 83 36 52 37
500 Freestyle 195 91 90 78 77 49 83 50 66 37
200 Freestyle Relay 235 121 124 78 99 81 91 50 66 63
100 Backstroke 264 141 136 78 99 96 97 80 71 65
100 Breaststroke 273 175 149 116 99 96 98 80 71 76
400 Freestyle Relay 313 207 183 128 127 120 106 106 101 94

Individual Projections

D1 Projected Individual Points

Name Year School Projected Points
Hannah Aegerter SR Middleton 37
Kennedy Gilbertson SR Stevens Point 37
Grace Bennin SR Verona Area/Mount Horeb 37
Reilly Tiltmann SO Brookfield East 36.5
Emma Lasecki JR Bay Port 35
Katrina Marty SR Madison West 35
Abby Carlson SO Waukesha South/Mukwonago 35
Sophie Fiske SO Sun Prairie 34
Erin Szczupakiewicz SO Muskego 32.5
Misko Madison SR Greenfield/Pius XI Catholic 32
Alivia Farber SR Waukesha West/CathMem 32
Ally Silvestri SO Middleton 31
Cassie Stegner JR Menomonee Falls/Hamilton 29
Maya Novack JR Cedarburg 27
Bethany Rahn FR D.C. Everest 26.5
Erika Remington SR Cedarburg 26
Emmaleigh Zietlow SO Arrowhead 25
Sydney Stoll SO Arrowhead 25
Riley Melendy SR Bay Port 25
Brigitta Neverman FR Green Bay Southwest Co-op 25
Carly McKeon JR Madison Memorial 24
Megan Lucyshyn SO Arrowhead 22
Bridget Sullivan SO Madison West 22
Brigid Gwidt SO Cedarburg 20
Danielle Cramer JR Milton 20
Grace Mayes JR Muskego 20
Av Osero JR Neenah 20
Trinity Gilbert SR Kenosha Indian Trail 19.5
Makenna Licking SR Middleton 19
Taylor Short JR Waukesha South/Mukwonago 19
Olivia Meinberg JR Hartford Union/Slinger 18
Meredith Bangs SO Muskego 17.5
Gabriela Pierobon Mays JR Middleton 17
McKenzie Sanchez SR Racine Case 17
Alexis Woida SR Arrowhead 16
Bri Zablocki SR De Pere/West De Pere 16
Janelle Schulz SO Sun Prairie 16
Abby Hopfensperger JR Appleton North 15
Ella Stein JR Hudson 15
Elizabeth Weil JR Cedarburg 14
Bailey Schroeder SO Neenah 14
Alaina Breitbach JR Stevens Point 14
Casey Summers SR Stevens Point 14
Leah Tunney SR Homestead 13.5
Franny Gastrow SR Arrowhead 13
Lexi Penney JR Brookfield East 13
Anna Vandehey SR Stevens Point 13
Faith Eilertson SO Hudson 12.5
Alex Anagnostopoulos JR Middleton 12.5
Zaria Terry SO Madison La Follette 12
Ella DeFever JR Madison Memorial 12
Brooke Goedel JR Oak Creek 12
Lauren Malinowski FR Wauwatosa West 12
Mia Matic SR Kenosha Tremper 11
Maddie Ahluwalia SO Waukesha North/Kettle Moraine 11
Abby Wanezek FR Brookfield East 10
Kaitlyn Wilhelms SR Waunakee 10
Abigail Priestley FR Neenah 9
Josie McCartney JR Verona Area/Mount Horeb 9
Faith Johnson FR Menomonee Falls/Hamilton 8.5
Emily Allen FR Appleton North 8
Irene Wilson SO Hartford Union/Slinger 8
Sara Stewart JR Verona Area/Mount Horeb 8
Zoe Woods SR Brookfield East 7
Cassie Koester JR Cedarburg 7
Julia Gill SR Germantown 7
Michaela Nelson SR Sun Prairie 7
Sophia Remington SO Cedarburg 6
Stephanie Marks SR Germantown 6
Therese Missiaen SO Muskego 6
Sydney Hoff SO Stevens Point 6
Kendall Gonzalez SO Waukesha South/Mukwonago 6
Mikala Leppla SR Waukesha South/Mukwonago 6
Emma Gatzke SO Waukesha South/Mukwonago 5.5
Sommer Rhodes SR Janesville Craig 5
Berkley Smith JR Middleton 5
Emily Keebler SR Middleton 5
Claire Eisele JR Neenah 5
Kara Cowell JR Neenah 5
Malina Sayaovong FR Oak Creek 5
Sydney Nelson FR Arrowhead 4
Maggie Teng SR Brookfield Central 4
Ashley George SO Waukesha South/Mukwonago 4
Julia Larson SR Wauwatosa West 4
Mollie Brackett JR Appleton North 3.5
Megan Bingenheimer SR Brookfield East 3.5
Gretchen Hanson JR Eau Claire Memorial 3
Jenna Brandenburg JR Franklin 3
Amanda George FR Middleton 3
Emily Herman SO Eau Claire Memorial 2
Ali Beay FR Germantown 2
Hanna DeGrace FR Germantown 2
Abi Schmeiser JR Waunakee 2
Anna Kult JR Brookfield Central 1
Sophie Schmitz JR Madison Memorial 1
Bella Granetzke FR Madison West 1
Maddy Reid SO Madison West 1
Holli Anderson SR Oak Creek 1
Lauren Szolyga SR Waukesha South/Mukwonago 1

D2 Projected Individual Points

Name Year School Points
Alexandra Moderski SR McFarland 40
Kylee Theiler JR Tomahawk 40
Mekenzie Hammer SO Monroe/New Glarus 37
Ella Houwers SO Whitewater 37
Kaitlyn Barth SR Edgewood 35
Sofia Bormett SO Stoughton 34
Ella Lohr FR Baraboo 32
Mille Lausen SR Menomonie 32
Anna teDuits FR Edgewood 31
Issy Petersen SR Edgewood 31
Mariah Marowsky SR Fort Atkinson 31
Mara Freeman FR McFarland 30
Jocelyn Zgola FR Greendale 29
Nicole Beckman SR Whitnall 29
Megan Duffy SR Jefferson/Cambridge 28
Kaylie Svacina SR Tomahawk 28
Grace Schultz FR Merrill 27
Abby Reid FR Edgewood 26
Maeve O’Driscoll JR Edgewood 26
Morgan Erstad FR Monroe/New Glarus 25
Claire Schultz FR Merrill 24
Anna Oleniczak JR New Berlin Eisenhower 24
Taylor Bradley SR Baraboo 23
Emma Clifford SO Wausau East 22
Hallory Domnick SO Ashwaubenon 21
Ines Bengana SR Whitefish Bay 21
Bella Smith SO Whitnall 20
Lydia Barnes SR Whitefish Bay 19
DeeDee Walker JR Edgewood 18
Erin Bergman SO Medford 18
Amie Barrow FR Shorewood 18
Mallory Todd JR Edgewood 17
Erin Schuh SR Seymour 17
Kirby Tock SR Baraboo 16
Trinity McNall SO Monona Grove 16
Josie Peterson SO Jefferson/Cambridge 15
Ella Weaver JR McFarland 15
Makenna Winnicki SO Rhinelander 15
Madison Berg SO River Falls 15
Sydney Popp SO Ashwaubenon 14
Gaby de Moya-Cotter JR Edgerton 14
Emily Landwehr JR McFarland 14
Brooklyn Miller JR Portage 14
Eva Mikla SO River Falls 14
Megan Marcks SR Tomahawk 14
Lauren Steien JR Black River Falls/Blair-Taylor 13
Sophia Scolman SO Grafton 13
Trinity Kanitz JR Merrill 13
Emma Harris JR Whitefish Bay 13
Hannah Kujawa JR Greendale 12
Brianna Homontowski SR Greendale 12
Laura Billmann FR McFarland 12
Isabel Seyffer SO River Falls 12
Grace Radke FR Whitnall 12
Danielle Tesky SR Plymouth 11
Katelyn Holmstrom SR Rice Lake 11
Natalie Gneiser FR Baraboo 10
Molly Banks SR Sturgeon Bay Co-op 10
Claire Sweeney FR Edgewood 9
Aubrey Buskerud SR Medford 9
Brianna Back SO Monona Grove 9
Faith Forsberg FR Rice Lake 9
Sara Desing SR Whitefish Bay 9
Kamyla Held FR Whitnall 9
Rachel Lenz FR Whitnall 9
Olivia Konzen SR Grafton 7
Madisyn Tape SO River Falls 7
Grace Williams SR Sauk Prairie 7
Jocelyn McNicoll FR Ashwaubenon 6
Melody Greenwood SO Menomonie 6
Madison Albert-Nelson JR Platteville/Lancaster 6
Brianna Zimdars JR Whitewater 6
Mya Bokerman FR New Berlin Eisenhower 5
Ruby Schieldt FR Edgerton 4
Emmi Belzer JR Fort Atkinson 4
Madeleine Hammond FR Kohler Co-op 4
Adriana Nickels FR McFarland 4
Isabella Josephs FR Plymouth 4
Mary O’Malley JR Monona Grove 3
Cassandra Keller SR Monona Grove 3
Brooklyn Vannatta SO Platteville/Lancaster 3
Miranda Rautmann SO Plymouth 3
Morgen Frausto SO Plymouth 3
Giulia Brickl JR Sauk Prairie 3
Eva McNally SO Shorewood 3
Evelyn Geurts JR Ashwaubenon 2
Nina Schiro SR Monroe/New Glarus 2
Maddie Guman SR New Berlin Eisenhower 2
Isabella McCabe JR Plymouth 2
Grace Forsberg SO Rice Lake 2
Anna Czubak SR Shorewood 2
Olivia Richetto SO Wausau East 2
Mattie Letendre SO Baraboo 1
Maggie Person FR Delavan-Darien/WisSchool-Deaf 1
Abi Schauske SO Sturgeon Bay Co-op 1
Maggie Ripp SO Sturgeon Bay Co-op 1
Katy Volz SR Tomahawk 1
Nefeli Tselemegkou FR Whitnall 1
Alyssa Radant SO Whitnall 1

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Fiveos

Wow, thanks to andrew for putting this analysis together, that’s a rather comprehensive look at the numbers so far. What the numbers will never show is:
– Who was sick at sectionals. I personally know of several girls at different sectionals that were sick, one of those sick girls WILL be a factor at state.
– What girls were on a short rest at sectionals, and who was fully tapered. Some girls will go significantly faster at state than they did at sectionals.

It will be fun to watch the results next weekend.

Andrew Mering

DeeDee Walker?

Fiveos

I don’t know her.

Wisconswim

DeeDee has the flu, WISCA posted that in their article about sectionals, otherwise she would be the favorite to win the D2 500 and would probably only have competition from Kylee Theiler of Tomahawk in the 200

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