2015 W. NCAA PICKS: Close Field Leaves Title Prospects Open in 400 IM

NCAA WOMEN’S CHAMPIONSHIPS

400 IM

  • NCAA record: 3:56.54 – Katinka Hosszu, USC – 03/16/2012
  • American record: 3:57.89 – Caitlin Leverenz, Cal – 03/16/2012
  • U.S. Open record: 3:56.54 – Katinka Hosszu, USC – 03/16/2012
  • 2014 NCAA Champion: 3:58.12 – Maya DiRado, Stanford (graduated)

With five of last year’s A-finalists of the women’s 400 IM having graduated, the NCAA title is certainly up for grabs with several viable contenders ready to make their move.  A freshman leads the field’s entry list, but several veterans are in the mix and primed to swim away with the title.  The top five women are all seeded within about a second and a half of one another, making this one tight race to the finish.

Minnesota newcomer, Brooke Zeiger, sits atop the psych sheet with her entry time of 4:03.28, clocked at this year’s Big Ten Championships to take home the conference’s 400 IM title.  Prior to that meet, Zeiger’s best time was a 4:06.63 she earned at the Grand Prix – Minneapolis in November last year.  Zeiger held her own in that race claiming 4th behind the likes of Caitlin Leverenz, Elizabeth Beisel and 2014 NCAA champion, Maya DiRado and will be facing competitors just as swift and dynamic when she arrives in Greensboro, NC.

Notably, last year’s fourth-place finisher, Sarah Henry from Texas A&M, has been a strong mainstay in the more grueling events of the 400 IM, 1650 freestyle, 500 freestyle and will be more determined than ever to make her mark in this event as a senior.  Henry’s top time this season was the 4:04.92 earned in November at the Art Adamson Invite and the Aggie followed that up with a 4:05.44 to earn runner-up to Georgia’s Hali Flickinger at the 2015 SEC Championships.  As a comparison of progression, Henry clocked a markedly slower 4:11.64 at that same Art Adamson Invite in 2013 before swimming her career-best 4:02.88 at the NCAA final last year.  Could the 4:04.92 mark from this past November be an indication that Henry is prepared to drop even more time come this year’s NCAA final to ultimately take home the title to College Station?

As mentioned, however, Georgia’s Hali Flickinger is certainly a force to be reckoned with, taking home this year’s SEC 400 IM title in a time of 4:03.42.  This was a significant improvement over her SEC Championships performance of 2014, where she wound up 4th in the event with a time of 4:07.91.  Last year, Flickinger would finish 10th overall at the NCAA Championships in a time of 4:06.18, so she has already made the right steps to make sure this season is significantly faster as a whole than her sophomore year.  Flickinger will also battle Henry in the 500 free event during these NCAA Championships, so we will see how much juice each is able to carry over from that event, which takes place the day prior to the 400 IM.

Another SEC threat to the national title is Georgia senior Amber McDermott, last year’s 6th-place finisher in the event.  McDermott is positioned as the 7th-seeded swimmer coming into this year’s met, having clocked a 4:05.25 at the UGA Fall Invite in December.  McDermott’s next-best performance this season was the 4:05.57 mark she earned at the 2015 SEC Championships, which resulted in a third-place finish behind in-conference rivals Flickinger and Henry.  Unlike her competitors this year, McDermott has yet to dip beneath the 4:05-threshold so she will need to all her fortitude and tenacity to keep up with the top seeds in the event if she wants to go for the gold into his, her final year as a Bulldog.

On-the-rise Finish superstar Tanja Kylliainen (senior, University of Louisville) is also a huge potential player in this 400 IM event. Kylliainen took home this year’s ACC Title in a career-best 4:04.21 to top the field by over two full seconds for the commanding win, and was also named Louisville’s first ACC woman event winner across any sport since this is the school’s inaugural season in their new conference.  With huge underwaters as her strength, as well as backstroke and butterfly as her lethal medley legs, the senior may just boost herself to the top of the A-Final to give the Cardinals its first individual women’s NCAA Championship title.

Kansas’ Chelsie Miller could’ve also gone in our top 8, but we picked her Big 12 foe Madisyn Cox based on Cox’s win at the Big 12 Championships a few weeks back. she typically holds serve pretty well from her conference meet to national meet.

With no mega-star like the ones that we’ve had in the last few years (DiRado, Leverenz, Beisel, Hosszu, Smit) that have made this race so good for so long, times might be a little depressed this year. At the same time, though, the title is wide-open, and the field is a very tight and competitive one.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS

Swimmer Seed Best Time
Sarah Henry 4:04.92 4:02.88
Tanja Kylliainen 4:04.21 4:04.21
Hali Flickinger 4:03.42 4:03.42
Brooke Zeiger 4:03.28 4:03.28
Amber McDermott 4:05.25 4:05.16
Celina Li 4:05.13 4:05.13
Madisyn Cox 4:05.08 4:05.08
Nicole Vernon 4:09.37 4:05.88

Dark Horse: Ohio State’s Lindsey Clary sits as the number 14 seed in the event, but the Buckeye had a phenomenal Big Ten’s, placing runner-up in a time of 4:08.07.  That time hacked off almost two seconds from her pervious best of 4:09.87 clocked at the U.S. Winter Nationals just in December where she swam away with the National Title in the event.  Remarkably at that meet, Clary was able to lay down some gutsy swims to drop over 5 seconds from her 4:15.01 entry time when all was said and done.  With the right taper and the right mindset, the sophomore may just find herself in contention at this year’s NCAAs if she is able to put up another monster performance.

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Josh
9 years ago

I don’t think Theresa Michalak has shown her cards in this event yet. She swam a time at German Nationals in short course meters right before winter break that is a 4:06 low in yards, and was fighting through illness at SECs but still won the 200 IM in a 1:56.0. Even though back is her weak stroke, she has fantastic underwaters and split sub 25 leading off Florida’s 200 Medley Relay. She went 59.9 in the 100 breast at SECs but changed her third event to the 200 fly after popping a 1:55 at Florida’s no-stakes Last Chance meet. She was also on Germany’s 4×200 free relay at the London Olympics. If she puts it together, I can see… Read more »

The Grand Inquisitor
9 years ago

The field in this event has been extraordinarily strong in the past half decade. The field now is a bit of a reset – whoever win this year would probably not have finished in the top five in 2012…but hopefully individual development and incoming talent can restore the quality of this event in the future…

1 Katinka Hosszu SR Southern Cali 4:04.63 3:56.54!A 20
25.47 54.71 (29.24)
1:25.07 (30.36) 1:54.55 (29.48)
2:29.08 (34.53) 3:02.96 (33.88)
3:30.06 (27.10) 3:56.54 (26.48)
2 Caitlin Leveren JR Cal Berkeley 4:04.04 3:57.89!A 17
26.08 55.69 (29.61)
1:26.67 (30.98) 1:57.67 (31.00)
2:29.47 (31.80) 3:02.48 (33.01)
3:30.62 (28.14) 3:57.89 (27.27)
3 Elizabeth Beise SO Florida 4:01.57 3:59.37$A… Read more »

Swam ma
9 years ago

Sarah Henry havng bad year. way overrated. Brookes 403 way ahead of Henrys 405.

DEEJ
9 years ago

My vote is Brooke Zeiger. Cool seeing a freshmen as the top seed. Best IM’er to go through Minnesota – She could win all 4 years.

Hulk Swim
Reply to  DEEJ
9 years ago

There are some really good 4 IMers coming in next year… it will be a battle.

Hulk Swim
Reply to  DEEJ
9 years ago

Specifically Eastin, but then Szekely the year after I think. Both have been 6 or better.

!
Reply to  Hulk Swim
9 years ago

Szekely is at 4:06.33 and probably with at least one more big meet this season if she swims it before long course season kicks in. She’s going to be incredible come college no matter where she goes. She just has to keep at it. If you do a break down of her strokes by 100: 54 fly, 53 back, 1:01 breast, 51 free. Obviously you cannot add these up to get a real 4IM time – but if you did it would come to a 3:45. Incredible talent.

Eastin is right there too, actually a bit faster with a 52 high fly, 53 high back (slower than Szekely). We will see! Some fast swimming to come.

weirdo
9 years ago

my money is on Flickinger. she was fastest of the group this summer and has been just as good this season!
not so sure about your dark horse!?

A
Reply to  weirdo
9 years ago

Yeah why wouldn’t they choose Chelsie Miller over Lindsey Clary? Same time as Cox – even though it was a one time huge drop. I don’t know.

About Retta Race

Former Masters swimmer and coach Loretta (Retta) thrives on a non-stop but productive schedule. Nowadays, that includes having earned her MBA while working full-time in IT while owning French 75 Boutique while also providing swimming insight for BBC.

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