2025 World Championship Previews: US On The Outside Looking In On The Men’s 4×100 Medley Relay

2025 World Championships

• July 27 – August 3, 2025 (pool swimming)
• Singapore, Singapore
• World Aquatics Championships Arena
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index

BY THE NUMBERS – MEN’S 4×100 MEDLEY RELAY

• World Record: USA (R. Murphy, M. Andrew, C. Dressel, Z. Apple) — 3:26.78 (2021)
• World Championship Record: USA — 3:27.20 (2023)
• 2024 Olympic Champions: China (J. Xu, H.Qin, J. Sun, Z. Pan) — 3:27.46
• 2023 World Champions: USA (R. Murphy, N. Fink, D. Rose, J. Alexy) – 3:27.20

This men’s 4×100 medley relay will serve up an enticing final act to the Singapore World Championships, and there is no clear consensus on where the medals will go. China, USA and France will all harbour hopes of matching or exceeding last year’s performances, but the return of Russia/NAB will throw a spanner in the works for at least one of them, as they broke their national record earlier in the year in 3:28.49.

Team USA lost this race at the Olympics for the first time in history (barring the boycotted 1980 Olympics), and return zero legs from their silver-medal-winning team. A transition year could still deliver big for the U.S., but for Great Britain the loss of Adam Peaty is more serious as they will struggle to contend for the podium, having not medalled since 2022.

Only five nations – USA, Australia, Great Britain, Italy and France – have ever won this event at a world championships. It’s likely that number grows in Singapore.

First Is No Longer A Formality

The U.S. is the biggest wildcard in this field, in a deviation from recent years where the best team was fairly unanimous. Backstroke is the reason for this uncertainty, as their 100 backstroke depth seemed to take a big hit with no Hunter Armstrong or Ryan Murphy competing this summer.

Tommy Janton was the winner at U.S. Nationals in 53.00, and that will be in the bottom half of the final leadoffs this summer. That will leave Campbell McKean on breaststroke in a huge hole at his first senior international championships, and whilst he ranks 2nd in the world this season with a 58.96, that is his only time under 60 seconds. He could be anywhere between 58-mid and 59-high.

A word on the Shaine-Casas-on-backstroke shouts – he does hold a best of 52.51, but has only been 53.54 this season and has not broken 53 seconds since 2022. While his best is the fastest of anyone in Singapore for the U.S., unless he’s shown something special in training camp or is put on in prelims and throws down, we wouldn’t expect him to be on the backstroke leg in this relay. Jack Aikins is a much more likely finals swimmer if Janton is not selected.

That leads us into fly, where we will probably see Shaine Casas. Thomas Heilman and Dare Rose are options here as well, and it’s close enough between them that any one could slot in without giving up too much, such as in the case where Casas swims backstroke. The U.S. will get a solid split on this relay, likely 50-low at best – still elite, but we’ve been spoiled by Caeleb Dressel in recent years.

Freestyle should be the Jack Alexy show. He didn’t anchor last summer but threw down a 47.00 as the U.S. soared to victory in 2023. Having dropped 0.32 seconds from his flat start best and delivered a pair of 44.5 anchors at short course worlds he should be well into the 46s. That should be enough to get the U.S. onto the podium, but he’ll be made to work for it.

They do have the fastest add-up this season, but cannot say for certain that any of their legs will match their flat start times on a flying split. They could drop a lot of time and end up fighting for gold, but their deficit on backstroke may be enough to torpedo those chances.

Hear The Tiger Roar

China have gotten stronger in the one area of their relay that wasn’t quite at the standard of their other legs last year, with Chen Juner coming into Singapore having set a lifetime best of 51.03 at the Chinese Championships in April. That is almost exactly what Sun Jiajun split on this relay last summer, although that did not stop China storming to gold on the back of Pan Zhanle’s 45.92 split.

China Men’s 400 Medley Relay Paris (photo: Jack Spitser)

Although they’ve strengthened on fly, they may lose some time elsewhere. Xu Jiayu was 52.42 leading off last year and has been 52.49 so far this year, but has been inconsistent on relay leadoffs in recent years (53.3 in 2023). Pan has only been 47.79 on freestyle, and while Qin Haiyang has been 58.66 on breaststroke, fastest in the world this year, he was faster leading into last summer.

China may not quite be at 3:27-flat pace, but they have two gold medal favourites and a podium contender out of their four legs and the biggest margin of error of any team here. As the reigning Olympic Champions and returning the bulk of that team, consistency should be the key. China’s add-up is more than a second faster than anyone else, and they will be fired up to take their first ever world title in the event.

Flying Frenchmen

France have three proven swimmers and one potential wildcard on this relay, and will be a strong contender to defend their bronze medal from Paris. Yoann Ndoye-Brouard and Leon Marchand are world class on their legs and put France in the leading pack at halfway last summer, and Maxime Grousset will likely have the fastest fly split in the field.

The uncertainty comes from the new leg – anchor Rafael Fente-Damers. He split 47.95 on the heats relay last year, and shaved a tenth off his best to go 48.02 at the French Elite Championships. If he can match or exceed the 47.59 Florent Manaudou swam, France should be back in the 3:28s and the medal hunt.

One other that they have on the back end is to slide Grousset to freestyle and put Clement Secchi on the fly leg. The CFN Marseille swimmer posted a lifetime best of 51.06 in June and has improved by a second and a half over the last 24 months – it could be interesting to see what he can do in the heats.

If Secchi puts down a marker in the individual 100 then this relay has a different complexion. Grousset has split 49.27/49.57 on fly on the previous two relays, but with a best of 47.33 in freestyle could throw down something nasty on the anchor. We’ve not actually seen Grousset on a flying freestyle split – he leads off for France – but that order may end up being the best option.

Leon Marchand (photo: Jack Spitser)

The one leg who may not be quite on top form is Leon Marchand on breaststroke. The Worlds schedule puts the men’s 400 IM on the final day of the meet, so he will swim heats and the finals of the race prior to this relay. He has dropped the 200 breast and 200 fly from his schedule though, so may end up being net neutral compared to last year, especially given his remarkable capacity for doubling up.

For now though the menu for this relay is; same soup, just reheated. Fente-Damers will likely be bang on Manaudou’s split and the other three legs should also be around the same as last summer.

New Kids On The Block

The reason why France may repeat their performance and still end up off the podium is that we will have Russia return to the field under the guise of Neutral Athletes B (NAB). An early marker was thrown down by the St. Petersburg team at the Russian Championships in April, who set a Russian Record without Minakov on the team.

They have two world-class swimmers to choose from on backstroke, although with Kliment Kolesnikov (51.82 PB, 52.04 SB) likely swimming the 50 back final in the same session it may be left to Miron Lifintsev (52.08 PN, 52.15 SB) to lead off. That would still put NAB among the frontrunners at the first changeover, and although Ivan Kozhakin is the fastest swimmer for them this year, it will probably be Kirill Prigoda on breaststroke after he split 57.89 on that St. Petersburg relay.

That is a long way under his best of 58.92 however, and it remains to be seen if he can match that performance. He did have some phenomenal splits at short course worlds in December so a 58-low or better may be on the cards.

Andrei Minakov (50.82) and Egor Kornev (47.42) will be on a back half that should be able to hold serve with most of the field and will likely have clean water to swim in. They were 4th in Tokyo in their last international competition, and should be in a battle not just for the podium but for gold this time.

Clinging To Past Glories?

Great Britain

Great Britain has two huge holes on their relay this year compared to years past. They finally have the world class 100 backstroker that their relay was crying out for in the 2017-2021 period, but with Adam Peaty and James Wilby sitting the year out and James Guy no longer the force in fly he was four years ago, their middle legs look light.

Ollie Morgan should have Team GB at the front after the backstroke, as he’s been right on his best on relay leadoffs in the last two summers, but by the time Matt Richards dives in on the anchor the race could be long gone. Duncan Scott may well be tried on the fly leg again.

Greg Butler and Ed Mildred are solid swimmers, but neither has shown anything to indicate that they’ll be a game-changer on this relay. We saw Filip Nowacki split 59.25 at European Juniors – could Max Morgan do something similar in Singapore?

Matt Richards has been 46.89 on the anchor before, but unless GB are no more than a sniff behind the leading pack at the final changeover he will have too much to do. Breaking 3:30 could be a challenge, and the podium looks further away than it has in the last few years.

Italy

Italy won their first world title in this event in 2022, and have missed the final in both attempts since. The team has a lot of quality, but just like in the 4×200 free have suffered from taking it too easy in the heats.

Nicolo Martinenghi (photo: Jack Spitser)

Thomas Ceccon and Nicola Martinenghi are possibly the best front half in swimming right now, but Federico Burdisso has only been 51.55 on the 100 fly so far this season and perennial anchor Alessandro Miressi missed the team. Instead, the freestyle duties will go to one of Manuel Frigo, Leonardo Deplano, Lorenzo Zazzeri and Carlos D’Ambrosio.

The fact that there are so many names in the ring for that spot does indicate some uncertainty, but at worst they should get a 47-mid on the anchor and whoever swims prelims will be motivated to go all out – an important factor considering how this event has gone in the last two years.

They do not look quite in the same form as when they won the title in 2022, but this team should break 3:30 and could be in the medal hunt with a couple of big splits from their main men on the front half.

Australia

Australia are missing both a backstroker and a breaststroker, meaning that their wicked back half of Matt Temple and Kyle Chalmers will likely be out of the race even before they dive in. The loss of Sam Williamson to a knee injury was a huge hit as he was 58.80 last year, and losing Zack Stubblety-Cook to a back injury as well leaves them painfully short in breaststroke.

That puts a lot on the shoulders of Nash Wilkes, who is still yet to break a minute but will now find himself the go-to breaststroker for the dolphins. With none of the backstrokers on the roster having broken 54 seconds so far this year, Australia could hit halfway in the 1:54 range – which could be 3-4 seconds behind the leaders.

Temple and Chalmers can provide 50-low and 46-mid speed coming home, but a medal is almost certainly out of reach barring a big jump from someone. It could even be a struggle to make the final.

Not Here To Make Up The Numbers

Netherlands

The Netherlands have quality swimmers  at all four spots, although their strength comes in the middle two legs. Casper Corbeau and Nyls Kortsanje split 58.94 on breaststroke and 50.27 on fly respectively in the heats in Paris, although both were slightly slower in the final.

Korstanje has been in fantastic form so far this year, setting a National Record in the 50 fly in both long and short course, and has been 50.84 in the 100. Corbeau meanwhile is the 4th-fastest 100 breaststroker this season, going 59.06 to nearly match his best time.

Kai van Westering set a new national record on backstroke this year and Sean Niewold was 48.14 on freestyle in 2024 and has been 48.42 so far this season. They will both need to be on their best times to keep the Dutch competitive, but expect them to be in the final. They were the silver medalists at Doha 2024 in a National record of 3:31.23 – don’t be surprised if they go under that time.

Canada

Canada has a fantastic back half with Ilya Kharun on fly and Josh Liendo on freestyle, but they will likely press versatile Finlay Knox into breaststroke duties again this year as they still do not have a specialist in the stroke.

Knox did split 59.75 in Paris last summer though and was 56-low at short course worlds. Blake Tierney has only been 54.02 this season on backstroke however, and Canada could be out of the race while their big guns’ powder is still dry.

They were sixth in Paris in 3:31.27, but all four swimmers swam reasonably well, not leaving them much room to drop further this year. They may need to swim big in prelims to make it back to the final.

Germany could be a contender, with sub-59 breaststrokers Lucas Matzerath and Melvin Imoudou joined by 100 free National Record holder Joshua Salchow. Luca Armbruster split sub-51 on fly last summer and has been 51.21 already this season, a new best time.

Ole Braunschweig may need to get closer to his lifetime best of 53.47 than his season best 54.39 to ensure they’re competitive, but the team placed 5th in Fukuoka and 7th in Paris, and look to have only improved this year. A finals berth could await them again.

Japan and South Korea are both in the hunt for a final spot, but don’t have an elite leg currently. Hwang Sun-woo on freestyle for Korea or Yamato Fukuzawa on breast/Katsuhiro Matsumoto on fly for Japan may be the closest they have, but these two are definitely in the category of ‘Final Hopefuls’ rather than anything more.

The Verdict

While Russia/NAB look strongest based on the season so far, we are picking China to get the edge in the battle between the two and back up their gold medal from Paris. Russia may need another huge split from Kirill Prigoda on breaststroke to keep them within touching distance, and Pan Zhanle is the best anchor in the world for China.

The U.S may have been only half a second behind China last year and have the fastest season-best add-up, but one thing they have that the leading two teams do not is uncertainty. Up to three of the event winners from U.S. Nationals could end up either not swimming the final or swimming a different stroke, and for all his ability Shaine Casas is the epitome of the word unpredictability. They could make it a three-way battle for gold, but it’s look more likely they’ll be the pick for bronze.

France and Italy come into the meet off vastly different experiences in Paris, but may be closely matched in Singapore. They should be the top European nations with Great Britain in a transition year, despite their relay being being bookended by stars.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Poland – Poland have quietly put together a strong medley quartet, led by their star backstroker Ksawery Masiuk (52.55). He is joined by breaststroker Dawid Wiekiera (59.68), butterflier Jakub Majerski (50.92) and freestyler Kamil Sieradzki (48.34) for a 3:31.59 add-up. If they can all hit on the final day they could be in the final, but they don’t have any ready-made replacements if one or more of their swimmers is off. That could be an issue on breaststroke, where Wiekiera travelled directly from the World University Games in Berlin to Singapore with only a handful of days to acclimatise. He was on form in the 100 in the German capital, taking silver in the 100 breast in a lifetime best, but has a lot of travel and not much time to get used to it so it will have to be seen if he dips slightly at Worlds.