2023 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
- March 22-25, 2023
- Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center | Minneapolis, MN
- SCY (25 yards)
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- Day 3 Prelims Results (PDF)
- Day 3 Prelims Live Recap
- Day 3 Finals Heat Sheet
All three stroke 100s come in rapid succession on Day 3 of the NCAA Championships, and although it’s a bit chaotic and forces some swimmers to have a quick turnaround with the 100 fly and 100 back, it does offer up a glimpse into what we might expect at night’s end in the 400 medley relay.
This is the case even more so since the NCAA did away with relay preliminaries beginning in 2021.
Florida became the first team since 2019 to break the 3:00 barrier in the 400 medley relay last month at the SEC Championships, and after an incredible performance on Thursday night in the 200 free relay, it’s hard not to look to them as the big favorites here.
The Gators ended up having the fastest add-up time across the 100 back, 100 breast and 100 fly prelims this morning at 2:18.96, followed closely by Indiana.
Despite the fact that it was prelims and there were no relay exchanges, that Florida add-up is only eight-tenths shy of their pace at SECs through 300 yards.
Florida Split Comparison
|2023 SECs (Relay)||2023 NCAA Prelims Add-Up (Individual)|
|Adam Chaney – 44.17||Adam Chaney – 44.28|
|Dillon Hillis – 50.63||Dillon Hillis – 50.88|
|Josh Liendo – 43.35||Josh Liendo – 43.80|
At SECs, Macguire McDuff brought the Gators home with a 41.33 anchor leg, and he nearly matched that individually the following day (41.59).
McDuff has been lights out on relays so far this week, leading off the 800 free relay in 1:31.56 and anchoring the record-setting 200 free relay in 18.12, though he was off this morning in the 200 free and missed the top 16.
Indiana had standout showings from Brendan Burns, Van Mathias and Tomer Frankel across the 100 back, breast and fly this morning, all setting lifetime bests and making the ‘A’ final. The question then becomes if they’ll use Josh Matheny on breast and shift Mathias over to free, or go with Mathias on breast and Rafael Miroslaw on the anchor.
The Hoosiers went Matheny/Miroslaw at Big Tens, though Mathias has been on fire thus far in Minneapolis. However, he’s also swam on all three of IU’s relays thus far, and would be critical to have on tomorrow’s 400 free relay, so it’s possible he gets left off tonight.
Matheny was 51.17, six-tenths back of Mathias, to make the 100 breast consolation final.
Below, find the add-up of each of the top eight team’s fastest 100-yard swims this morning, excluding the freestyle leg since that event is tomorrow.
Add-Up Comparison, 100 Back/Breast/Fly From NCAA Prelims
|Adam Chaney – 44.28||Brendan Burns – 44.28||Destin Lasco – 43.93||Jack Dolan – 44.78||Kacper Stokowski – 44.02||Leon MacAlister – 45.54||Nick Simons – 45.50||Nate Stoffle – 44.93|
|Dillon Hillis – 50.88||Van Mathias – 50.57||Liam Bell – 50.76||Leon Marchand – 50.00**||Mason Hunter – 51.88||Ron Polonsky – 51.14||Lyubomir Epitropov – 51.88||Reid Mikuta – 51.66|
|Josh Liendo – 43.80||Tomer Frankel – 44.26||Dare Rose – 44.86||Alexander Colson – 45.48||Aiden Hayes – 44.40||Andrei Minakov – 44.17||Jordan Crooks – 44.52||Aidan Stoffle – 45.68*|
- *Aidan Stoffle scratched the 100 fly in favor of the 100 back, where he made the ‘B’ final, so the time used for him is his season-best time
- **Leon Marchand didn’t swim the 100 breast individually, but split sub-50 on the relay at Pac-12s (49.73). Given we’re comparing times based on this morning’s flat starts, we’re penciling him in at 50-flat, which seems fair given the form he’s shown thus far.
- If we swap out Mathias for Matheny on Indiana’s breast leg, their add-up comes out at 2:19.71.
Closely following Florida and Indiana in the add-up is Cal, with 100 back top seed Destin Lasco and 100 breast ‘A’ finalist Liam Bell leading the charge. With 100 free top seed Bjorn Seeliger on the anchor leg, the Bears will be in contention, especially after Dare Rose‘s impressive showing this morning.
Adding in each team’s fastest 100 freestyle time from a flat start this season, this is how the numbers shake out:
2023 NCAA Prelim Add-Ups + 100 Free Season-Bests
|Adam Chaney – 44.28||Brendan Burns – 44.28||Destin Lasco – 43.93||Jack Dolan – 44.78||Kacper Stokowski – 44.02||Leon MacAlister – 45.54||Nick Simons – 45.50||
Nate Stoffle – 44.93
|Dillon Hillis – 50.88||Van Mathias – 50.57||Liam Bell – 50.76||Leon Marchand – 50.00**||Mason Hunter – 51.88||Ron Polonsky – 51.14||Lyubomir Epitropov – 51.88||
Reid Mikuta – 51.66
|Josh Liendo – 43.80||Tomer Frankel – 44.26||Dare Rose – 44.86||Alexander Colson – 45.48||Aiden Hayes – 44.40||Andrei Minakov – 44.17||Jordan Crooks – 44.52||
Aidan Stoffle – 45.68*
|Macguire McDuff – 41.59||Rafael Miroslaw – 42.38||Bjorn Seeliger – 40.90||Grant House – 41.69||Luke Miller – 41.87||Andres Dupont – 42.17||Gui Caribe – 41.43||
Logan Tirheimer – 42.59
Cal comes out by a tenth over Florida, with Indiana sitting third and ASU fourth. The Hoosiers did have Miroslaw split 41-mid on the relay at Big Tens, while Seeliger and McDuff’s relay times are comparable to their flat-starts, so that could pull the Hoosiers back into the mix. However, if they don’t use Mathias, that might not be the case.
Another team to watch for is Virginia. The Cavaliers had none of their athletes make it back in the individual 100s tonight, but can field a lineup consisting of Jack Aikins, Noah Nichols, Tim Connery and Matt Brownstead. Nichols placed 17th in the 100 breast this morning after coming in as the third seed, so having the rest of the session off (and the motivation of having a redemption swim) could fuel him to a big split. Connery split 45.11 at ACCs, Brownstead anchored in 41.35, and Aikins has been as fast as 45.68.
Although we’re giving UVA the benefit of two relay exchanges (fly and free) and season-bests rather than prelim times (back and breast), their add-up comes out at a competitive 3:02.96.
Chaney is about as good in backstroke as he was at SECs (but I still think he hasn’t really pushed it in a 100 yet)
Liendo is better than he was at SECs
Savickas was slower in prelims but Hillis is better than SECs
Julian Smith has dropped time in every event making two consols and anchored the 400 free relay in 41.0 at SECs, and MacDuff ascends to another level on relays.
They have a lot of moving pieces they can slot in, but the 2:59.4 they come in with is pretty hard to beat, and if they’re on, the record is gone. Florida wins.
Leon goes 48.9 tonight. Heard it hear first
how long till we see 2:50
I really think Bob puts Marchand on Fly. And Kulow anchors. He’s got nothing to loose. Kulow was DFS in the 200 free this am.
Also, penciling in Marchand at 50.0 is dumb, he just split the fastest 50 ever – and swims the 400 IM. If they put him in BR he’s going 48.
It makes sense to leave Mathias off since there are probably more points on the line by saving him for the 4×100 FR. But, they are in the running to win the 4×100 MR, so I hope they just go for it! What a way to send him off for his fifth year.
Anyone know why NC State swam their 4×50 FR as they did yesterday? Curtiss anchored, when usually he leads off – has a very good flat start. Also why use Luke Miller?
Luke Miller – 19.31 in prelims, will be on 4 relays.
Aiden Hayes – 19.09 SB, 19.25 in prelims, has at most 1 other relay.
Drew Salls – 19.14 SB, 19.26 in prelims, no relays and only one other individual.
Miller went 18.56 with a slow reaction. Relay start must be better.
I can see León going a 48 here
So, a Texas comparison is:
Pretty far back. Admittedly, this almost certainly the line-up, but does give an apples-to-apples comparison with the above.
Foster on back (extremely likely) should be about one second faster, and they might use Hobson on free.
Carson will swim the back, around 45.00
So about 45/50/45/41.5 for Texas with relay starts, hopefully top 6/7
Seems a bit optimistic to me…they could probably do that if fresh, but Foster and Corbeau will have a double, and so will Hobson if they use him. (Note that doubles/fatigue will affect all teams, though.) Rounding to the nearest half second, I’d say:
45.5/50.5/45.5/41.5 for 3:03.0
Caspar was 50.1 last year with a double
Hobson had plenty of time to rest from his 200
Carson has even more
You can add 0.2 to anyone’s predictions to account for fatigue, reaction time etc
Carson requires the most projection there. He was 45.8 in early November without a taper
Says Casper’s dad