SwimSwam

As close as they come: Texas and Cal tied in Day 2 prelims scoring

At the halfway mark, this NCAA Championship has been one of the closest in recent memory. Scoring out the prelims results tells us one thing: expect it to stay that way.

Separated by just a single point after last night, Cal and Texas are each in line to put up exactly 157 points tonight based on prelims swims, keeping the projected standings after tonight still incredibly tight.

These projections, of course, don’t include diving (where Texas is likely to get a big boost) or the 800 free relay, which has early heats already completed by will wrap up tonight with the final two heats featuring both Cal and Texas (though the psych sheet scoring does include the 800).

After we scored out the psych sheets a month back, we’ve been comparing the two scores to see which teams have moved up from their seeds and which teams have fallen off. Unsurprisingly, Cal and Texas were once again the biggest risers from their seeds, with Texas gaining 76 points and Cal picking up 46.

For Texas, those points came everywhere, as the Longhorns are projected to score more than they were seeded in every event besides the 100 breast. Their biggest event will be the 100 fly, where a psych sheet 29 points became a prelims 44 with Jack Conger moving up and Tripp Cooper and Will Glass both making the A final.

Cal got a big boost in the backstroke, with Ryan Murphy moving up to the top seed and Tony Cox rising to join him in the A field.

That’s in stark contrast to the other two teams in the title hunt at this point, Florida and Michigan. The Gators lost 17 points from seeds, with the biggest drop coming in the 400 IM, where 5th-seeded Sebastien Rousseau missed the A final. Michigan got stung right away in the 200 medley relay when a 4th seed became 9th place, meaning the most the Wolverines can score is 18 points compared to their projected 30.

Besides those top 4 title-hunters, other big risers were Georgia (+34) and Missouri (+19). The biggest fallers were Arizona (-43) and NC State (-40).

Reminder: these numbers do not include 3-meter diving or the 800 free relay:

Team Psych Scored Prelims Scored +/-
Texas 81 157 76
Cal 111 157 46
Michigan 168 144 -24
Florida 143 126 -17
Georgia 79 113 34
USC 77 89 12
Arizona 118 75 -43
Auburn 52 59 7
Florida St 70 52 -18
Ohio St 69 48 -21
NC State 88 48 -40
Indiana 45 41 -4
Louisville 37 40 3
Alabama 38 40 2
Penn St 45 28 -17
Tennessee 41 25 -16
Stanford 15 23 8
Missouri 0 19 19
Wisconsin 19 18 -1
West Virginia 9 16 7
WKU 9 15 6
Notre Dame 21 14 -7
Virginia Tech 18 12 -6
Dartmouth 0 9 9
UNC 0 9 9
Minnesota 5 5 0
UNLV 0 4 4
Wyoming 5 4 -1
Kentucky 0 2 2
South Carolina 2 2 0
Texas A&M 0 1 1
Navy 2 0 -2
Purdue 12 0 -12
Virginia 16 0 -16

 

In addition, we’ve combined these projected prelims scores with each team’s current point total after day 1. That should give us a projected picture of what the overall team scores will look like tonight after the 100 back and before 3-meter diving and the 800 free relay begin.

The 1-point margin between Texas and Cal remains stable. Even a disappointing morning by Michigan doesn’t have them completely out of the hunt, as they were seeded to score a lot of points today. Based on prelims, the Wolverines are projected to trail Florida by just 10 and Texas by just 50 heading into tonight’s final two events. Remember, also, that the Wolverines are the reigning U.S. Open record-holders in the 800 free relay to happen later tonight.

It’s also worth pointing out that the psych sheets are much kinder to Texas and Cal today than tomorrow. Both of those teams will have to do the brunt of their work today in building a lead big enough that Florida and Michigan can’t make it up on the final day, as Saturday has some good events lined up for the Gators and Wolverines.

Georgia looks like a solid #5 at this point, with Arizona and USC battling behind them. Also of note is that based on prelims results, Alabama and Louisville could each be running just inside the top 10 after tonight, though there’s a whole host of teams hot on their heels.

Day 1 Actual Day 2 Prelims Projected total after Day 2
Texas 146 157 303
Cal 145 157 302
Florida 137 126 263
Michigan 109 144 253
Georgia 74 113 187
Arizona 68.5 75 143.5
USC 51 89 140
Auburn 54 59 113
Alabama 40.5 40 80.5
Louisville 39 40 79
Florida St 26 52 78
NC State 24.5 48 72.5
Indiana 31 41 72
Stanford 46 23 69
Ohio St 12 48 60
Tennessee 26 25 51
Missouri 28 19 47
UNLV 34 4 38
Penn St 8 28 36
Minnesota 23 5 28
Virginia Tech 7 12 19
Wisconsin 0 18 18
Duke 16 0 16
West Virginia 0 16 16
WKU 0 15 15
Notre Dame 0 14 14
Fresno St 12 0 12
Miami (FL) 12 0 12
Navy 12 0 12
Arizona St 11 0 11
Utah 9 0 9
Dartmouth 0 9 9
UNC 0 9 9
Wyoming 0 4 4
Kentucky 0 2 2
South Carolina 0 2 2
Georgia Tech 1.5 0 1.5
CSUB 1 0 1
Texas A&M 0 1 1

Comments

  1. calswimfan says:
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    my goodness. is this with diving points? or without? I really do hope that the bears hang in there with the horns!

    • Hulk Swim says:
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      Without… and with one of the Texas divers struggling… it’s just going to be about 15-20 points from the boards for Texas… so if all goes without disaster (DQ, etc), Texas will carry a ~20 point lead to Saturday over Cal with Mich/Fla lurking.

      • Peterdavis says:
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        IMO it will be just about even at the end of the night. The meet is a little more nuanced than just scoring psych sheets and prelim sheets. For example, Cal will in all likelihood move from 8th to 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in the 2mr. Texas can’t move up there. Texas I’d guess moves up to challenge the top 3 in the 8fr, with Cal on their tail. Cal has a bunch of B points wout much room to improve, and Texas has a bunch of A points with not much room to go down. It is mostly even except that the diving is apparently not quite as gang-busters as yesterday, and that first relay could mean a nearly 20 point boost for Cal. Makes me think it’ll all wash out, more or less, with both teams scoring in the 170s after diving. Exciting

    • Teamwiess says:
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      Without but the Texas divers aren’t doing as well as in the 1 meter.

    • calswimfan says:
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      thanks guys. it’s so hard to keep up with diving b/c they only announce the first names and I can’t tell what school they are representing!

    • Hayden Henry says:
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      With 1-meter being their weakest event, the horns will probably go 2 up 1 down in the 3-meter tonight.

  2. lv.5 swimmer says:
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    off topic but Vinny Marciano is looking to tear up the NAG record book at the 2014 Speedo Champions Series Long Course sectional meet in Buffalo this weekend.

    results here:

    http://results.teamunify.com/nsss/results/Sectionals/2014/

    already this morning he’s been 1:01.8 and 2:04.1 in the 100m fly and 200m free.

    100m back tomorrow and 200m back on sunday

  3. ML says:
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    Video of the 200IM final: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8aGSGEgwVk

    Doesn’t Lane 1 clearly do an illegal back-to-breast turn, never even putting his hand on the wall?

  4. 0
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    just an FYI, I calculated all of the projected after prelims very differently… I have Cal scoring 183 (not including diving or 800FR) and UF scoring 94. Did anyone else check this math?

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About Jared Anderson

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Jared Anderson just can’t stay away from the pool. A competitive career sixteen years and running wasn’t enough for this native Minnesotan, who continues to get his daily chlorine fix. A lifelong lover of writing, Jared now combines the two passions as Senior Reporter for SwimSwam.com, covering swimming at every level. Read More »