Welcome to our first version of the 2014-15 NCAA Men’s Power Rankings! The plan is to do a set of power rankings every two weeks, alternating men and women. To avoid being too long-winded, we’re putting a sentence/word count limit on ourselves, so won’t hit every point on every team (or, really, anything close to that).
We’re using largely the same criteria in these rankings from last year, but given it’s early in the season, we aren’t putting everything into how the team looks in meets so far. While we’re taking who is on a hot streak right now, ultimately, the team’s end of the season prospects matters most. However, THESE ARE NOT STRICTLY OUR “NCAA PREDICTIONS”. Consider this a combination of present and future prospects. In addition, here’s some other factors we considered (if they look familiar, we copied and pasted a majority of these from last years’ articles):
- How the team looks so far this year
- Divers. It’s easy to ignore them to pander to the “what is diving doing with swimming” audience, but they’re part of the game, sorry.
- Year-over-year improvements, adds, etc.
- Depth and flexibility of roster, because teams with more options have a larger margin of error come NCAA’s.
- How the team placed last year at NCAA’s, and how many points they graduated.
Criteria we don’t consider:
- Giving love.
- How many friends you have on a team.
- How biased you think we are.
- Which team has the loudest, brashest, whiniest swimmers.
- Anonymous brags about how much or little rest teams had for their meets.
- Who sends us the most nasty Tweets and leaves the most nasty ‘anonymous’ ‘disinterested observer’ comments.
In other words: feel free to have your own rankings, your own opinions, and disagree with our rankings. Just don’t embarrass yourself while doing it.
1. Texas Longhorns
Despite falling to the #3 team on this list last month, the Texas Longhorns, anchored by strong early season starts from Jack Conger, Joe Schooling, and Will Licon, have earned the #1 spot. The sprint group–a loaded one, with John Murray, Matt Ellis, Brett Ringgold, Tripp Cooper, and Kip Darmody–hasn’t even hit their stride yet (minus Ringgold). Jonathon Roberts (4:21, 9:06 in the 500 and 1000) deserves a mention, too, as he currently leads the nation in the 500 free.
2. Cal Golden Bears
Should the defending champs who added a great freshman class be #1 to a team that already include Ryan Murphy, Tyler Messerschmidt, Seth Stubblefield, Jacob Pebley, and Chuck Katis? Maybe. This one was an incredibly close call, but Texas has been a cut-above the Bears so far this year. Cal might be the favorites following the conference meet picture in February (they don’t have any particular weakness), but for now, they sit at #2.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has already answered a lot of the questions that were in the air coming into this season, with Paul Powers, Bruno Ortiz, and Vinny Tafuto giving the Wolverines a 1-2-3 sprint punch that should propel their freestyle relays back into the top five. Senior Justin Glanda has also been excellent, supporting Anders Nielsen in the mid-distance group.
4. Florida Gators
The Gators have some big shoes to fill with the graduations of double-NCAA-champ Marcin Cieslak and Sebastian Rousseau, but with Pawel Werner back to full strength and Caeleb Dressel on the scene, Florida should stay in the top four. Dan Wallace keeps getting better and better, too. Texas and Cal are too far in front right now, but this team has the depth to slide up the rankings moving forward.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
For years, the Bulldogs have had loads of talent that hasn’t translated into a great NCAA finish. 2014 was a big step in the right direction. The individual talent remains (Chase Kalisz, Nick Fink, etc.), and the Bulldogs are now real threats in relays with swimmers like Michael Trice and Taylor Dale. Star freshmen Gunnar Bentz and the Litherland triplets are already making their mark.
6. Arizona Wildcats
With three of their top four sprinters gone (including Giles Smith), the Wildcats aren’t in a great freestyle relay position . However, they do return Kevin Cordes, Bradley Tandy, Andrew Porter (9th in the 100 fly last season), and diver Rafael Quintero. We will learn a lot more about their NCAA prospects in November. Without a sprint answer, the Wildcats could fall behind a couple of these next teams.
7. Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal are coming off their most disappointing postseason in the last three decades, but given how little they graduated and how much talent they added to the roster, this team is light-years better than a year ago. Andrew Liang currently sits #2 nationally in the 100 fly, while sophomore Max Williamson is the only man under 3:50 in the 400 IM. David Nolan is still around, too. Questions still remain about their sprint depth, however.
Author’s aside: Sorry guys, I know you’re better than this, but I’ll get severe flack if I put you any higher right now.
8. Auburn Tigers
Without mincing words, the Tigers will have a hard time being as good as they were last year. Marcelo Chierighini, Zane Grothe, James Disney-May, Tj Leon, and All-American diver John Santeiu are all gone. Kyle Darmody, Joe Patching, Arthur Mendes, and Michael Duderstadt are a great core to build around, but Auburn needs more to get back into the top five.
9. NC State Wolfpack
The graduations of Jonathan Boffa and Barrett Miesfeld hurt, but NC State is probably better than they were this time last season. Simonas Bilis, David Williams, freshman Ryan Held, and Andreas Schiellerup are give the Wolfpack four spinters who have already been under 20.50 this season (the only team in the country to do that). Freshman Anton Oerskov Ipsen (#2 in the 500, #1 in the 1000) fill the biggest void in NC State’s lineup.
Writer’s note: I’m blatantly rooting for the Wolfpack to win a relay at NCAA’s this season. Would be the first non-“power team” to win a relay in a long time.
10. USC Trojans
The Trojans are without the NCAA’s most versatile freestyler since Ryk Neethling until January, but once Cristian Quintero returns, USC should pick up where they left off. That being said, USC will need Reed Malone and Dylan Carter to be even better than their very good freshman campaigns to keep Trojans in the top 10.
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide are this close to cracking the top 10. With returning NCAA champ Kristian Gkolomeev atop the ranks in the 50 free and Brett Walsh already cracking 20, Alabama looks to have some staying power. Freshman Luke Kaliszak will be key going forward.
12. Indiana Hoosiers
The Hixon add is huge, their freshmen have been very good (namely Blake Pieroni), and Anze Tavcar is one of the country’s most improved swimmers. The problem? No more James Wells or Cody Miller. The Hoosiers could still easily break into the top ten.
13. Tennessee Volunteers
Evan Pinion is back from an injury, and David Heron is currently the nation’s top miler. No more Sam Rairden, but Sean Lehane (currently 2nd in the country in the 200 back) is on a roll.
14. Penn State Nittany Lions
Shane Ryan is worth 30 individual points on his own. Add in a consistently improving Nate Savoy, and the Nittany Lions already have some good looking relays.
15. Louisville Cardinals
Joao De Lucca is gone, but all is not lost for the Cardinals. Caryle Blondell is filling in nicely, and Grigory Tarasevich and Nolan Tesone are showing continual improvement.
16. UNC Tarheels
The Tarheels mustered just 7 points a year ago, but they are looking really good so far this season; they’re top five in multiple relays nationally, and butterflyers Sam Lewis and Ben Colley are looking like two of the nation’s most improved swimmers. Lewis is #1 in the 100 fly, while Colley is #3 nationally in both fly distances this season.
17. UNLV Rebels
UNLV was 19th at NCAA’s last season, and are returning the three fastest swimmers on their 6th place 200 free relay from a year ago. 19.1 50 freestyler Dillon Virva is the star here, but Tom Paco-Pedroni has also shown big improvement this season.
18. Missouri Tigers
The Tigers graduated big points from perennial All-American diver David Bonuchi and backstroke stud Logan Mosley, but they still have a great core group of breaststrokers, led by Sam Tierney.
19. Utah Utes
Nick Soedel had a disappointing NCAA’s last season, but he’s still one of the most dangerous sprinters in the country. He currently sits atop the standings in the 100 freestyle. Distance freestyler Bence Kiraly has been a bright spot, as well.
20. Ohio State Buckeyes
No more Tim Phillips, but Josh Fleagle and Michael Disalle are good sprint pieces to anchor a team around, and National Team breaststroker DJ MacDonald is on the verge of exploding. Good potential to move up, as they always seem to have random guys come through the woodwork to help relays score decent points.
21. Duke Blue Devils
No more points from Nick McCrory, but Peter Kropp is having an excellent season so far.
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Andrew Kosic is finally looking like the 43.3/insane potential sprinter out of high school that we thought he would be; he’s been 20.0 and 44.1 already this year.
23. Florida State
The Seminoles are without a go-to sprinter (and Pavel Sankovich), but with Connor Knight and Jason Coombs already near the top of the ranks, we should see FSU scoring pretty well in both medleys.
24. Minnesota Golden Gophers
No Toomey and Van Swol, but Daryl Turner has filled in nicely. The Golden Gophers always find a way to score relay points in March.
25. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies have been a sneaky-good conference meet team for a few years now. Colin Higgins (9th at 2014 NCAA’s in the 200 back) and sprinter Owen Burns will push to get their medleys into scoring position at NCAA’s.
One thing I notice that I would change- I would take UNLV out completely. Not only did they lose to Utah and Arizona, but they just lost to BYU (A team that they had beaten for 7 straight years) and Denver too. They don’t have depth, and their big guys from NCAA’s last year are not swimming well (who really knows where they are in their training…..?).
Opinion here…Bulldawgs Crush Gators and you have them ranked above UGA? After seeing the meet and results, unless UGA leaves 3-4 swimmers off of the bus I see no scenario where Gators beat Dawgs.
Didn’t the Indiana Hoosiers have a large victory over the Auburn Tigers earlier this season? Why are they ranked higher?
One factor apparently not considered: ‘been there, done that.’ These guys have done it before and many have won twice. Going into Austin last year and winning in convincing fashion and returning nearly the entire team has to mean something. But to put more emphasis on our meets so far this year like the King of the Pool and the Stanfurd distance meet? I know these polls don’t mean much in November but give the Golden Bears the respect we deserve. Texas is very good but we’ve proven ourselves and continue to only get better.
Jonny Newsom – we gave Cal a ton of credit in our college swimming previews: http://swimswam.com/college-swimming-previews-1-california-men/
I called the Bears the preseason NCAA favorites in that story, but even I agree with placing Texas #1 in these power rankings. Pre-season predictions place much more emphasis on returning points, incoming prospects and what we saw last year. Power rankings are going to rely much more heavily on what we’ve seen so far this year. That’s the nature of the game.
fair enough-see you in Iowa City.
“Been there, done that” doesn’t count as much when you have to rely heavily upon your freshman class to show up big in order to win. The experience of winning certainly goes a long way, but it doesn’t magically rub off on the freshman simply because they stepped foot on campus.
I appreciate and respect the work that you guys do. That being said, we walk into Austin last season and win the whole thing, reload with a top notch frosh class and don’t get the top spot? I’m assuming this decision is weighed heavily on the times we’ve posted so far this year so I will accept that. But come March we will be ready.
Wisconsin beat Arizona and Minnesota already. But that’s non of my business.
In terms of NCAA’s Kevin Cordes alone outscored both Wisconsin and Minnesota’s points combined.
I’m not sure who would come out on top this season between Wisconsin and Minnesota because I don’t know much about those teams, but I know Minnesota just graduated Derek Toomey.
If Teduits performs better at the NCAA’s this season, they might be able to come out on top. But Minnesota has a higher chance of scoring a relay so we’ll see.
?Who are the pro swimmers that train with the UT men’s team?
Adam – McBroom and Feigen are two pros and National Teamers who train at Texas.
What Braden said, but also Caleb Weir, Dax Hill and GWG have been spotted on the pool deck. Ricky Berens used to come, but was embarrassed in a 200 Fly showdown against reigning Texas LCM record holder John Martens
finally the year where diving sinks Texas at NCAA’s