Olivier Poirier-Leroy is a former National level swimmer from the beautiful west coast of BC. In feeding his passion for swimming, he has developed YourSwimBook.com: a comprehensive tool that designed for swimmers to track and analyze their results.
When Ryan Lochte firmly took the 400IM crown from Michael Phelps in London, in a time that was the second fastest in history, it was clear that it was now Lochte’s event. Now that Phelps has presumably hung up the suit for good, it’s now become Lochte’s race.
However, even with almost all of last year’s Olympic Trials finalists back for another kick at the can, there is still a deep pool of young talent looking heading into World Trials. Will the NBAC legacy continue with Chase Kalisz? Or will Ryan Lochte’s 6 weeks of hard training be enough to ward off the challenge of Kalisz, Tyler Clary, and Conor Dwyer?
The Favorite
Ryan Lochte is the easy favorite. After taking some time off after the Olympics, and filming his reality show “What Would Ryan Lochte?” it seems that the 11 time Olympic medalist has zoned in on his swimming with 6 weeks of hard training in anticipation of trials. He swam strongly at Santa Clara, banging out a 4:11 under some stiff competition from up and comer Chase Kalisz, which made it even more impressive considering that he isn’t a great in-season swimmer. He has been improving markedly as the season goes on, and with some full-time, focused training under his belt, there isn’t much reason to believe that this progression will stop anytime soon.
Internationally, Kosuke Hagino is the guy to beat. He demolished his 2012 time from London at the Japanese Open in April, swimming a 4:07.61. Although that time would have placed him 2nd a year ago instead of 3rd, it’s still 2 seconds off from what Lochte swam, and also places Hagino fifth fastest all time.
The Challengers
19 year old Chase Kalisz of the North Baltimore Aquatic Club has been turning heads so far this year, improving his personal best 3x in this event already. He gave Ryan Lochte a run for his money at Santa Clara, swimming a personal of 4:11.85, just half a second behind Lochte, and good enough for 6th in the world this year. Expect Kalisz to make up some ground on the breaststroke, in which at Santa Clara he displayed lightning speed, splitting a 109.97, which would have been second fastest among the 8 swimmers in the Olympic Final in London. If he puts any kind of a backstroke leg into his IM as he matures, he might become the best in the world.
Another swimmer who put in work at Santa Clara was Conor Dwyer. He swam a lifetime best in Santa Clara as well, swimming a 4:15.39 (a time that was also 10 seconds faster than swims at Charlotte and Orlando earlier in the year). A finalist in the 400m freestyle in London expect Dwyer to be in the mix on the final leg.
After placing third last year behind Phelps and Lochte, Club Wolverine’s Tyler Clary will be looking to stamp a ticket with the 400 IM this year. Even though his top time this year was a modest 4:20.36 at Santa Clara, Clary does have the street cred of having taken down Locthe in the 200 back at the Olympics last year. He’s also the only other American to swim under 4:10 in the past year in this event.
Tyler Harris has been faster mid-season this year (4:18), than he was last year (4:20) heading into Trials. He’s also a taper guy with a particularly strong breaststroke leg. Look for him at the U.S. Open, though, as he’s somewhat surprisingly not swimming Trials.
Michael Weiss of Wisconsin is looking to capitalize on a solid winter season and improve on his 4:15.79 from 2012’s US Open Champs. Distance specialist Andrew Gemmell from the Delaware Swim Team is already guaranteed a trip to Barcelona, having punched it in for the 5k. With a personal best just a shade slower than Weiss’, and the added benefit of knowing that he is already going, Gemmell should be able to put in a relaxed, concentrated swim.
Cal sophomore Adam Hinshaw has the credentials of a distance freestyler – with a Cal school record in the 1,650,and also placed 5th at NCAA’s with a 3:44.74 in the 400IM. Hinshaw will be looking to carry the momentum of his varsity season in order to improve on his personal best of 4:17.91.
Andrew Seliskar, who has been rewriting various breaststroke Age Group records, swam a pair of 4:21’s at Jr Pan Pacs last year. He has been just off that so far this year, swimming a 4:25 in Charlotte.
Picks
First are my time predictions for the top 8, followed are a full listing of predictions from different SwimSwam contributors with best times from January 1, 2010 onward.
1. Ryan Lochte 4:07.44
2. Chase Kalisz 4:08.99
3. Tyler Clary 4:09.21
4. Conor Dwyer 4:11.30
5. Michael Weiss 4:14.39
6. Andrew Gemmell 4:14.64
7. Adam Hinshaw 4:15.97
8. Josh Prenot 4:16.11
| Olivier’s Picks | Braden’s Picks | Matt & Reed’s Picks | |
| 1. | Ryan Lochte, Gator Swim Club, 4:05.18 | Ryan Lochte, Gator Swim Club, 4:05.18 | Ryan Lochte, Gator Swim Club, 4:05.18 |
| 2. | Chase Kalisz, Georgia/NBAC, 4:11.85 | Chase Kalisz, Georgia/NBAC, 4:11.85 | Tyler Clary, Club Wolverine, 4:09.21 |
| 3. | Tyler Clary, Club Wolverine, 4:09.21 | Conor Dwyer, Gator Swim Club/NBAC, 4:15.39 | Chase Kalisz, Georgia/NBAC, 4:11.85 |
| 4. | Conor Dwyer, Gator Swim Club/NBAC, 4:15.39 | Tyler Clary, Club Wolverine, 4:09.21 | Conor Dwyer, Gator Swim Club/NBAC, 4:15.39 |
| 5. | Michael Weiss, Wisconsin, 4:15.79 | Michael Weiss, Wisconsin, 4:15.79 | Michael Weiss, Wisconsin, 4:15.79 |
| 6. | Andrew Gemmell, Georgia/NCAP, 4:16.07 | Andrew Gemmell, Georgia/NCAP, 4:16.07 | Kyle Whitaker, Michigan, 4:21.06 |
| 7. | Adam Hinshaw, Cal, 4:17.91 | Gunnar Bentz, Dynamo Swim Club, 4:17.43 | Stephen Schmuhl, Indiana, 4:18.74 |
| 8. | Josh Prenot, Cal, 4:18.44 | Josh Prenot, Cal, 4:18.44 | Josh Prenot, Cal, 4:18.44 |
| Darkhorse | Darkhorse | Darkhorse | |
| Corey Okubo, Aquazot, 4:22.10 | Curtis Ogren, PASA, 4:24.17 | Ty Stewart, Athens Bulldogs, 4:20.66 |
Lochte and Clary (not necessarily in that order)
Considering Michael Weiss dropped 4 seconds off his personal best in the 400 yard IM this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go a 4:11-4:12 a give them a go for a spot
Lochte has way too many events on the schedule to stay competitive (even if he did drop some, he still has a full plate). Kalisz and Clary will go 1-2. Watch out for Dwyer to take that 3 spot from Lochte, though, on that final leg.
Why do you think Tyler Harris will be at the US Open? He hasn’t been swimming since trials.
Ok, 3 weeks ago, it was clear that Tyler Clary and Chase Kalisz would go to Barcelona. But now a guy named Ryan Lochte comes back to the 400 IM after a brief retirement. 3 guys for 2 places. I go with Ryan and Chase. But I’m far from being sure for the second spot. Among the young, Gunnar Bentz, Andrew Seliskar and Curtis Ogren are the guys to watch for the future.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Clary and/or Lochte doesn’t swim it …..then who else makes it besides Chase?!
Dwyer is pretty good
Why wouldnt Lochte and Clary swim it?
In Barcelona, the men 400 IM will fall on the last day, so they have nothing to lose to swim it.
Clary has not looked very good this year, what with his part time job as race car driver and all, so the top two will be Lochte and Kalisz.
We’ll have the answer next week but I think he isn’t as bad as we can believe it. In Mesa he has swum 1.57.85 in the 200 back just a few minutes after a 200 IM. Hard to do that if you are not in a good shape.
I think Kalisz might be able to defeat Lochte at trials. Lochte will likely be less than fully rested, unlike Kalisz.