What Swimswam Readers Predict at the Olympics: Pick ‘Em Analysis

The pick ’em contest can give some insight into what swimswam readers in general think or hope will happen at the Olympics. Swimswam reader’s main consensus is that the US will win lots of medals. The medal table implied by the aggregated picks has the US winning 32.9 medals total and 13.2 golds (ex. if 50% of entries pick the US to win gold in an event, the US is given .5 of a gold medal in the total). This would be more than the 31 medals the US won in London.

Pick’s medal table:

Gold Silver Bronze Total
USA 13.2 10.7 9.0 32.9
AUS 7.3 6.5 4.3 18.1
JPN 2.0 2.1 2.2 6.3
GBR 1.2 1.7 2.5 5.4
HUN 2.3 1.7 1.3 5.4
CHN 1.5 1.4 1.3 4.3
SWE 1.1 1.4 1.5 4.0
ITA 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.8
RSA 0.2 1.4 1.2 2.7
FRA 1.1 0.7 0.9 2.7
NED 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.1
GER 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.3
DEN 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.1
LTU 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0
CAN 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0
TUR 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8
NZL 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7
ESP 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8
BRA 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8
SIN 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6
RUS 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6
JAM 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
POL 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
KOR 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Picks Men Only Medal Table:

Men Gold Silver Bronze Total
USA 7.8 5.1 5.2 18.1
AUS 2.1 3.5 2.0 7.7
JPN 1.0 1.4 1.5 3.9
GBR 1.2 1.2 1.3 3.7
RSA 0.2 1.4 1.2 2.7
CHN 1.3 0.7 0.5 2.5
FRA 1.1 0.7 0.9 2.6
HUN 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.8
ITA 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.4
GER 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9
BRA 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7
SIN 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6
RUS 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5
CAN 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3
POL 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
KOR 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
LTU 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Picks Women Only Medal Table:

Gold Silver Bronze Total
USA 5.4 5.6 3.8 14.8
AUS 5.2 2.9 2.3 10.4
SWE 1.1 1.4 1.5 4.0
HUN 2.0 0.8 0.7 3.6
JPN 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.4
NED 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.1
GBR 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7
CHN 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.8
ITA 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4
DEN 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.1
LTU 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0
TUR 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8
NZL 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7
ESP 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8
CAN 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7
GER 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4
JAM 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3

-99% of entries have Katie Ledecky winning the 400 and 800 free.  JamieTW, TheShiftyShadow,Jay Dubleyew, and ORRDU1 picked here to lose the 400. mfnisratty picked her to lose the 800. Jay Dubleyew, and Iva picked her to lose both. I wish them luck.
-Other big favorites were Katink Hozzzu, Women’s 200 IM, 95%; Emily Seebohm, Women’s 100 back 94%; Cate Campbell, Women’s 100 free, 92%; Adam Peaty, Men’s 100 breast, 91%.

-The only individual event where no one was picked to win gold by more than 50% of entries was the women’s 200 fly. The favorites there were Madeline Groves 38%, Natsumi Hoshi, 29%,  Mireia Belmonte 21%, Cammile Adams 6%, Franziska Hentke 5%, and Yufei Zhang 1%. The only relay without a majority favorite was the women’s 4X100 medley. There gold medal picks had Australia 39%, USA 33%, China 20%, Sweden 8%.

-Nathan Adrian in the 100 free was the only individual seeded over 1% slower than first and picked to win gold by more than 25% of entries.

-8 swimmers were seeded less than .3% behind first and picked to win gold by less than 25% of entries. Katinka Hosszu, Women’s 200 back, 18% picked to win gold; Bronte Campbell, Women’s 100 free, 5%; David Plummer, Men’s 100 back, 22%; Chad le Clos, Men’s 100 fly, 7%; Kosuke Hagino, Men’s 200 IM, 7%; Franziska Hentke, Women’s 200 Fly, 5%; Federica Pellegrini, Women’s 200 free, 3%; Paul Biedermann, Men’s 200 free, 5%.

In general, people rarely picked swimmers who weren’t seeded close to the top to win. Here a look at how often 2nd and 3rd seeded swimmers were picked to win vs the % gap of their seed time to the top seed:

pickem

Here are the pick percentages for everyone who showed up in more than 5% of picks in an event:

Gender Event Name Country Seed Gold Silver Bronze Medal
Women 100 Back Emily Seebohm AUS 58.26 94% 4% 2% 100%
Women 100 Back Mie Nielsen DEN 58.73 1% 33% 21% 55%
Women 100 Back Madison Wilson AUS 58.75 1% 21% 23% 45%
Women 100 Back Katinka Hosszu HUN 58.78 3% 32% 21% 56%
Women 100 Back Olivia Smoliga USA 59.02 1% 8% 23% 32%
Women 200 Back Emily Seebohm AUS 2:05.81 62% 26% 9% 97%
Women 200 Back Katinka Hosszu HUN 2:06.18 18% 35% 31% 84%
Women 200 Back Missy Franklin USA 2:06.34 17% 23% 24% 64%
Women 200 Back Belinda Hocking AUS 2:06.49 1% 6% 12% 19%
Women 200 Back Maya Dirado USA 2:06.90 2% 9% 23% 34%
Women 100 Breast Lilly King USA 1:05.20 59% 36% 3% 98%
Women 100 Breast Ruta Meilutyte LTU 1:05.46 38% 39% 19% 96%
Women 100 Breast Katie Meili USA 1:05.64 2% 20% 42% 64%
Women 100 Breast Alia Atkinson JAM 1:05.93 0% 3% 29% 32%
Women 200 Breast Viktoria Zeynep Gunes TUR 2:19.64 21% 40% 17% 78%
Women 200 Breast Rie Kaneto JPN 2:19.65 60% 25% 9% 94%
Women 200 Breast Kanako Watanabe JPN 2:20.90 12% 21% 37% 70%
Women 200 Breast Taylor McKeown AUS 2:21.45 2% 5% 11% 18%
Women 200 Breast Rikke Pedersen DEN 2:21.58 5% 7% 16% 28%
Women 200 Breast Lilly King USA 2:24.03 0% 1% 5% 6%
Women 100 Fly Sarah Sjostrom SWE 55.64 88% 9% 2% 99%
Women 100 Fly Kelsi Worrell USA 56.48 9% 54% 26% 89%
Women 100 Fly Xinyi Chen CHN 56.82 0% 6% 10% 16%
Women 100 Fly Jeanette Ottesen DEN 56.83 0% 6% 17% 23%
Women 100 Fly Emma McKeon AUS 56.89 0% 2% 5% 7%
Women 100 Fly Dana Vollmer USA 56.9 2% 22% 35% 59%
Women 100 Fly Penny Oleksiak CAN 56.99 0% 2% 5% 7%
Women 200 Fly Madeline Groves AUS 2:05.41 38% 27% 17% 82%
Women 200 Fly Natsumi Hoshi JPN 2:05.56 29% 26% 17% 72%
Women 200 Fly Franziska Hentke GER 2:05.77 5% 12% 19% 36%
Women 200 Fly Mireia Belmonte ESP 2:05.86 21% 15% 13% 49%
Women 200 Fly Cammile Adams USA 2:06.33 6% 15% 29% 50%
Women 200 Fly Yufei Zhang CHN 2:06.51 1% 2% 3% 6%
Women 50 Free Cate Campbell AUS 23.84 90% 8% 2% 100%
Women 50 Free Ranomi Kromowidjojo NED 24.07 4% 29% 30% 63%
Women 50 Free Bronte Campbell AUS 24.12 2% 40% 21% 63%
Women 50 Free Sarah Sjostrom SWE 24.17 2% 20% 28% 50%
Women 50 Free Francesca Halsall GBR 24.21 0% 0% 5% 5%
Women 50 Free Abbey Weitzeil USA 24.28 1% 3% 12% 16%
Women 100 Free Cate Campbell AUS 52.38 92% 6% 2% 100%
Women 100 Free Bronte Campbell AUS 52.52 5% 69% 19% 93%
Women 100 Free Femke Heemskerk NED 52.69 0% 4% 14% 18%
Women 100 Free Sarah Sjostrom SWE 52.7 2% 19% 54% 75%
Women 100 Free Abbey Weitzeil USA 53.28 1% 1% 5% 7%
Women 200 Free Sarah Sjostrom SWE 1:54.31 9% 68% 15% 92%
Women 200 Free Katie Ledecky USA 1:54.43 88% 10% 2% 100%
Women 200 Free Federica Pellegrini ITA 1:54.55 3% 17% 50% 70%
Women 200 Free Femke Heemskerk NED 1:54.68 0% 1% 10% 11%
Women 200 Free Emma McKeon AUS 1:54.83 0% 2% 12% 14%
Women 200 Free Missy Franklin USA 1:55.49 0% 2% 10% 12%
Women 400 Free Katie Ledecky USA 3:58.98 99% 1% 0% 100%
Women 400 Free Leah Smith USA 4:00.65 1% 95% 3% 99%
Women 400 Free Sharon Van Rouwendaal NED 4:03.02 0% 2% 23% 25%
Women 400 Free Jessica Ashwood AUS 4:03.34 0% 1% 40% 41%
Women 400 Free Boglarka Kapas HUN 4:03.47 0% 0% 11% 11%
Women 400 Free Jazz Carlin GBR 4:03.51 0% 0% 7% 7%
Women 400 Free Brittany MacLean CAN 4:03.84 0% 0% 10% 10%
Women 800 Free Katie Ledecky USA 8:06.68 99% 0% 0% 99%
Women 800 Free Lauren Boyle NZL 8:17.65 0% 36% 30% 66%
Women 800 Free Jazz Carlin GBR 8:18.15 0% 16% 18% 34%
Women 800 Free Jessica Ashwood AUS 8:18.41 0% 24% 15% 39%
Women 800 Free Leah Smith USA 8:20.18 0% 20% 29% 49%
Women 200 IM Katinka Hosszu HUN 2:06.12 95% 4% 1% 100%
Women 200 IM Siobhan-Marie O’Connor GBR 2:08.45 1% 23% 59% 83%
Women 200 IM Maya Dirado USA 2:08.99 4% 70% 23% 97%
Women 200 IM Alicia Coutts AUS 2:09.95 0% 1% 7% 8%
Women 400 IM Katinka Hosszu HUN 4:29.89 87% 9% 2% 98%
Women 400 IM Maya Dirado USA 4:31.71 11% 73% 10% 94%
Women 400 IM Hannah Miley GBR 4:32.16 1% 8% 26% 35%
Women 400 IM Emily Overholt CAN 4:32.52 0% 2% 22% 24%
Women 400 IM Mireia Belmonte ESP 4:33.42 0% 3% 19% 22%
Women 400 IM Elizabeth Beisel USA 4:35.59 1% 4% 19% 24%
Men 100 Back Mitchell Larkin AUS 52.11 16% 48% 34% 98%
Men 100 Back David Plummer USA 52.12 22% 27% 44% 93%
Men 100 Back Ryan Murphy USA 52.26 61% 24% 12% 97%
Men 100 Back Camille Lacourt FRA 52.48 0% 1% 6% 7%
Men 100 Breast Adam Peaty GBR 57.92 91% 7% 1% 99%
Men 100 Breast Cameron van der Burgh RSA 58.49 4% 54% 32% 90%
Men 100 Breast Kevin Cordes USA 58.94 5% 36% 45% 86%
Men 100 Breast Giedrius Titenis LTU 58.96 0% 0% 7% 7%
Men 100 Breast Joao Gomes Junior BRA 59.06 0% 1% 6% 7%
Men 100 Breast Ross Murdoch GBR 59.09 0% 1% 5% 6%
Men 100 Fly Michael Phelps USA 50.45 89% 7% 3% 99%
Men 100 Fly Chad le Clos RSA 50.56 7% 57% 23% 87%
Men 100 Fly Laszlo Cseh HUN 50.86 1% 21% 23% 45%
Men 100 Fly Joseph Schooling SIN 50.96 1% 13% 40% 54%
Men 100 Fly Tom Shields USA 51.03 0% 1% 10% 11%
Men 100 Free Cameron McEvoy AUS 47.04 71% 26% 3% 100%
Men 100 Free Nathan Adrian USA 47.72 27% 63% 7% 97%
Men 100 Free Zetao Ning CHN 47.84 2% 7% 27% 36%
Men 100 Free Luca Dotto ITA 47.96 0% 2% 10% 12%
Men 100 Free Jeremy Stravius FRA 47.97 0% 0% 12% 12%
Men 100 Free Santo Condorelli CAN 47.98 0% 1% 25% 26%
Men 100 Free Caeleb Dressel USA 48.23 0% 0% 9% 9%
Men 1500 Free Gregorio Paltrinieri ITA 14:34.04 71% 21% 5% 97%
Men 1500 Free Mack Horton AUS 14:39.54 6% 32% 36% 74%
Men 1500 Free Connor Jaeger USA 14:41.20 7% 23% 44% 74%
Men 1500 Free Gabriele Detti ITA 14:46.48 0% 1% 4% 5%
Men 1500 Free Ryan Cochrane CAN 14:51.08 1% 1% 4% 6%
Men 1500 Free Yang Sun CHN 14:55.11 14% 21% 4% 39%
Men 200 Back Mitchell Larkin AUS 1:53.17 55% 41% 2% 98%
Men 200 Back Ryan Murphy USA 1:53.95 44% 53% 3% 100%
Men 200 Back Evgeny Rylov RUS 1:54.21 0% 2% 22% 24%
Men 200 Back Radoslaw Kawecki POL 1:54.55 0% 1% 18% 19%
Men 200 Back Jacob Pebley USA 1:54.77 0% 2% 36% 38%
Men 200 Back Ryosuke Irie JPN 1:54.81 0% 1% 17% 18%
Men 200 Breast Josh Prenot USA 2:07.17 61% 21% 10% 92%
Men 200 Breast Marco Koch GER 2:07.69 18% 25% 25% 68%
Men 200 Breast Yasuhiro Koseki JPN 2:07.77 2% 18% 15% 35%
Men 200 Breast Kevin Cordes USA 2:07.81 13% 24% 32% 69%
Men 200 Breast Daniel Gyurta HUN 2:08.10 5% 10% 13% 28%
Men 200 Fly Laszlo Cseh HUN 1:52.91 21% 55% 22% 98%
Men 200 Fly Michael Phelps USA 1:52.94 75% 16% 9% 100%
Men 200 Fly Chad le Clos RSA 1:53.68 4% 27% 62% 93%
Men 200 Free James Guy GBR 1:45.14 23% 43% 15% 81%
Men 200 Free Yang Sun CHN 1:45.20 59% 16% 8% 83%
Men 200 Free Paul Biedermann GER 1:45.38 5% 7% 8% 20%
Men 200 Free Kosuke Hagino JPN 1:45.50 2% 9% 19% 30%
Men 200 Free Thomas Fraser-Holmes AUS 1:45.63 1% 2% 4% 7%
Men 200 Free Townley Haas USA 1:45.66 6% 10% 16% 32%
Men 200 Free Conor Dwyer USA 1:45.67 2% 10% 24% 36%
Men 200 Free Yannick Agnel FRA 1:45.97 2% 1% 3% 6%
Men 200 IM Michael Phelps USA 1:54.75 87% 12% 1% 100%
Men 200 IM Kosuke Hagino JPN 1:55.07 7% 38% 51% 96%
Men 200 IM Ryan Lochte USA 1:55.81 6% 49% 39% 94%
Men 200 IM Thiago Pereira BRA 1:56.65 0% 0% 9% 9%
Men 400 Free Mack Horton AUS 3:41.65 37% 46% 9% 92%
Men 400 Free Yang Sun CHN 3:42.58 56% 26% 7% 89%
Men 400 Free James Guy GBR 3:43.75 3% 14% 22% 39%
Men 400 Free Connor Jaeger USA 3:43.79 3% 10% 47% 60%
Men 400 Free Tae Hwan Park KOR 3:44.26 0% 1% 6% 7%
Men 400 IM Daiya Seto JPN 4:08.50 17% 53% 26% 96%
Men 400 IM Kosuke Hagino JPN 4:08.54 71% 14% 11% 96%
Men 400 IM Chase Kalisz USA 4:09.54 12% 29% 50% 91%
Men 400 IM David Verraszto HUN 4:09.90 0% 1% 6% 7%
Men 400 IM Jay Litherland USA 4:11.02 0% 1% 4% 5%
Men 50 Free Florent Manaudou FRA 21.19 69% 22% 6% 97%
Men 50 Free Nathan Adrian USA 21.37 25% 47% 23% 95%
Men 50 Free Cameron McEvoy AUS 21.44 4% 17% 23% 44%
Men 50 Free Bruno Fratus BRA 21.5 1% 9% 24% 34%
Men 50 Free Anthony Ervin USA 21.52 1% 4% 22% 27%
Men 4X100 MR USA 3:29.93 96% 3% 1% 100%
Men 4X100 MR Australia 3:30.08 2% 74% 17% 93%
Men 4X100 MR France 3:30.50 1% 13% 31% 45%
Men 4X100 MR Great Britain 3:30.67 1% 8% 39% 48%
Men 4X100 MR Japan 3:31.10 0% 1% 7% 8%
Men 4X200 FR Great Britain 7:04.33 4% 50% 39% 93%
Men 4X200 FR USA 7:04.75 94% 5% 1% 100%
Men 4X200 FR Australia 7:05.34 1% 43% 51% 95%
Men 4X100 FR France 3:10.74 39% 28% 27% 94%
Men 4X100 FR Russia 3:11.19 2% 8% 10% 20%
Men 4X100 FR Italy 3:12.53 0% 9% 10% 19%
Men 4X100 FR Brazil 3:13.22 1% 4% 17% 22%
Men 4X100 FR USA 3:16.01 40% 28% 19% 87%
Men 4X100 FR Australia 3:12.26 17% 22% 16% 55%
Women 4X100 MR China 3:54.41 20% 24% 34% 78%
Women 4X100 MR Sweden 3:55.24 8% 12% 21% 41%
Women 4X100 MR Australia 3:55.56 39% 31% 17% 87%
Women 4X100 MR USA 3:56.76 33% 32% 22% 87%
Women 4X200 FR USA 7:45.37 98% 2% 1% 100%
Women 4X200 FR Italy 7:48.41 0% 33% 32% 65%
Women 4X200 FR China 7:49.10 0% 38% 27% 65%
Women 4X200 FR Sweden 7:50.24 0% 9% 26% 35%
Women 4X200 FR Australia 7:51.02 1% 16% 11% 28%
Women 4X100 FR Australia 3:31.48 94% 5% 1% 100%
Women 4X100 FR Netherlands 3:33.67 1% 33% 57% 91%
Women 4X100 FR USA 3:34.61 5% 60% 31% 96%
Women 4X100 FR Sweden 3:35.71 0% 2% 6% 8%
Women 4X100 FR Canada 3:36.44 0% 0% 5% 5%

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Klorn8d

Have the start lists for prelims been released? I mostly want to see the us relays order/who’s on it

Skoorbnagol

They won’t release that until race day

Klorn8d

I said relays but I meant only the women’s 400 free relay

Klorn8d

It is race day…

pooholla

cool analysis! thanks for putting that together.

bobo gigi

Medal tables are based on gold medals. The most important for a nation is to win gold medals if they want to be ranked high. USA won the amazing number of 16 golds in London out of 32 events in the pool. I take advantage of that article to post my last predictions about winners. And as usual I’ve made changes compared to the last time…. 🙄 MEN 50 free. Florent Manaudou 100 free. Cameron McEvoy 200 free. Sun Yang 400 free. Sun Yang 1500 free. Gregorio Paltrinieri 100 back. Ryan Murphy 200 back. Mitch Larkin 100 breast. Adam Peaty 200 breast. Josh Prenot 100 fly. Chad le Clos 200 fly. Chad le Clos 200 IM. Kosuke Hagino 400 IM.… Read more »

thomaslurzfan

Very interesting picks, especially for athletics … Roleder in womens 100m hurdles? Pretty brave, considering the american dominance. Rypakova in womens triple jumps? I dont see her beating Rojas or Ibarguen and for sure not both. Schwanitz over Adams and Gong in womens shot put? I picked her for bronze. Molitor for sure wont win womens javelin throw, she hasnt even been nominated … I think gold will go to the girl from Belarus. KJT over JEH and BTE in womens heptathlon? That would be a huge surprise. I think your predictions on the mens side are much better. I dont agree about Malachowski beating Harting and Yego beating Röhler. About swimming: I dont see 2 gold for Le Clos… Read more »

Zika Ziki

I’m so glad that you I’ve finally agreed with me that USA will win 10 golds in swimming.
Previously you predicted 7 golds.

Welcome to the club, Bobo!

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