SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers if Leon Marchand will lower his world record in the 400 IM at the European Championships, with options ranging from a historic sub-4 swim to going 4:04-plus offered:
Question: What will Leon Marchand go in the 400 IM this summer?
RESULTS
- 4:01 – 37.5%
- 4:02.00 – 4:02.49 – 17.9%
- Sub-4 – 14.1%
- 4:00 – 12.4%
- 4:03 – 9.0%
- 4:04+ – 4.9%
- 4:02.50 – 4:02.99 – 4.3%
The man put it out there himself. Leon Marchand told French media last month that he wants to break the world record in the 400 IM at this summer’s European Championships.
On one hand, of course Marchand wants to set a new best time in the event and therefore break the world record, which is now nearly three years old. But it doesn’t feel like something he would just say publicly without having done the training that indicates he’s on track to take it down.
Marchand’s record stands at 4:02.50, set at the 2023 World Championships, which was a historic performance that broke the 15-year-old mark of 4:03.84 set by Michael Phelps in 2008.
Since then, Marchand won a dominant gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics on home soil in a time of 4:02.95, a new Olympic Record, and then followed up by winning the world title last summer in 4:04.73. He was clearly targeting the 200 IM in Singapore, having obliterated Ryan Lochte‘s world record in a stunning time of 1:52.69, and the 400 IM felt like more of a secondary focus.
Now that it’s full pedal to the metal on the 400 IM, we asked SwimSwam readers what they think Marchand will go this summer, and the overwhelming majority think the world record is going down. But the question is, by how much?
The top option with 37.5% of votes was something in the 4:01 range, which would break the existing world record by anywhere from a half-second to one and a half seconds. That was followed by a swim in the 4:02s, but under his world record of 4:02.50, at 17.9%.
Something under 4:00 almost seems too far outside of reality, at least for now, but we opted to include it in the poll, and it got plenty of love with 14.1% of votes. That’s an ultra-optimistic point of view, but hey, he’s done things that have left jaws on the floor before. At the 2023 NCAA Championships, he broke the U.S. Open Record in the 400 IM by 2.75 seconds, bringing the mark down from 3:31.57 to 3:28.82.
A swim in the 4:00s picked up 12.4% of votes, meaning that the four options in the poll under the world record all got more votes than the three others over the world record.
In total, 81.9% of votes went towards a time under the world record.
A combined 13.9% of votes predicted that Marchand will go 4:03, 4:04, or above, while only 4.3% picked a time in the 4:02s, but above the 4:02.50 world record.
Clearly, people want to see him break the record, and that will extend beyond the SwimSwam audience, as he’ll be racing in front of the home French crowd in Paris.
It’s worth noting that Euros won’t be hosted in the same pool as the 2024 Olympics, which, at least early in the meet, was accused of being the reason behind relatively slow times due to its shallow depth, though four world records eventually went down later in the competition.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: After crushing her 100 fly world record in Fort Lauderdale, will Gretchen Walsh get her hands on one of, or both, of Sarah Sjostrom’s LCM 50 world records this year:
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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
I know we’ve seen some crazy time drops from Marchand, but I’m still thinking he can break it but still be in the 4:02 range. Dipping into 4:01 seems way too hard to me. But, I’ve been wrong about Marchand in the past, so we’ll see!
In 4 years we’ve gone from probably 81 percent of us thinking Phelps’ 4:03 was untouchable, to 81 percent expecting Leon to go 4:01. Amazing.
He said it, he’s doing it. Then all eyes on 2028 and putting on yet another masterclass in 4+ events. Can’t wait.
OT: Apostolos Siskos just swam 1.54.12 in the 200 back at Acropolis Swim Meet.
I bet on 4:01-4:01.50. I’d love a sub-4. But not this year. Sub-4 will take place in LA in front of 30000 people with energy, adrenaline, a deep pool, ultra prepared and trained, a strong opposition.
He will be 26 years old by then. How many male swimmers are going huge PBs in their mid-20s in grueling events like the 400 IM? Just a reminder that 27-year-old Phelps swam a 4:09.28 at the 2012 Olympics and finished 4th. (Yes, Lochte was also 27 and his time was a PB, but his 4:05.18 wasn’t that close to Phelp’s WR.)
Anyway, Marchand’s 400 IM WR turns three years old in 2026. If he doesn’t break it this year, he won’t break it ever again.
Lochte was 26 (almost 27) when he set the 200 IM world record. Phelps was 23 when he went 4:03 in the 400IM at the 2008 Olympics. Maybe he would have gone faster in 2012 if he didn’t go through that post-2008 training slump.
Lochte peaked late because he didn’t train that hard before he went to college, and it took years to build up his aerobic base.
I think he also locked in even more after Beijing 2008.
His peak would have been in Beijing like Phelps if he trained harder during his teens.
I respectfully disagree with you . LA will probably be his last 400 IM in an international competition. He said it more than one year ago. Trust me. He’ll be at his best level ever. 26 years old. So what ? The peak of his career.
As I’ve already said in other messages, fasten your seatbelts. The Marchand rocket is about to take off and reach unprecedented heights. But even this year, I think he’s going to dazzle swimming fans. The world records for the 400m individual medley and the 200m breaststroke will be shattered. The 200m individual medley too, if he decides to swim that event. As for the 200m butterfly, he’s capable of breaking it. I don’t… Read more »
Phelps didn’t train for half of that Olympic cycle (or the subsequent one, for that matter)
I think differently. When he announces sthg (last year 200Im wr), it’s huge. He said he wants to do something special in 400Im in front of his home crowd (Michael talked with him last year on how to go sub 4) and finds the time quite long before L.A. I am not convinced he would break some wrs in 2028, perhaps just winning. I can be wrong but this competition seems very important to him and is willing to make a splash . Bob said last year he will be on his Paris form level and has strengthened since, so it’s definitely hard but why not?
I don’t think Leon is going to peak at age 26, and I think sub 4:00 is way too expected by people, his 4:02.50 is already very optimized.
Where is he gonna get 2.5 seconds from? His underwaters are already maxed. He already takes it out blazing fast at the 300m mark and holds on for dear life.
I think he’d be lucky to even break that going forward tbh. 4:02.2 or whatever would be insane for him.
Backstroke is where he could pick up some time. His technique there is visibly improved since 2023. Possibly he could pick up some time in freestyle, as he’s been focusing on it. I don’t think sub-4 is possible, but a few tenths under his existing time seems possible to me
Yeah I think some tenths are possible, just not 2.5 seconds.