SwimSwam Pulse: 71.3% Think U.S. Men Have Better Shot At 4×100 Free Relay WR Than Brits In 4×200

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which team is more likely to break a relay world record this summer: the U.S. men in the 4×100 free, or the British men in the 4×200 free:

Question: Which men’s team has the better chance of breaking a free relay world record this summer?

RESULTS

• 4×100 free – USA – 71.3%
• 4×200 free – GBR – 28.7%

There are four men’s long course world records still on the books set prior to 2010, and two of them come in the freestyle relays.

Jason Lezak‘s epic comeback on Alain Bernard in the men’s 4×100 free relay final at the 2008 Olympics saw the American obliterate the world record in a time of 3:08.24, with the French team close behind in 3:08.32.

That record has gone untouched in the 18 years since. The U.S. men clocked 3:08.97 en route to winning gold at the Tokyo Olympics, and then Australia matched that time at last summer’s World Championships, and those are the only two squads to break 3:09 other than the U.S. and France in 2008.

In the 4×200 free relay, the U.S. men smashed the world record in Beijing in a time of 6:58.56, and then 12 months later at the 2009 World Championships, they chipped one one-hundredth off it in 6:58.55. (Russia also cracked 7:00, winning silver in 6:59.15.)

Since then, five relay teams have broken 7:00, and four of them have been from Great Britain.

The British men came within three one-hundredths of the world record at the Tokyo Olympics in 6:58.58, and then they’ve followed up by going 6:59.08 at the 2023 World Championships, 6:59.43 at the Paris Olympics, and 6:59.84 at the 2025 World Championships.

Through the first few months of 2026, the conversation surrounding both records has come up.

American Chris Guiliano was on fire at the Westmont Pro Swim Series in March, throwing down a time of 47.38 in the 100 free, which led to plenty of speculation about the U.S. men potentially taking down the 4×100 free world record this summer.

Then, at the Aquatics GB Championships in April, the possibility of the British men taking down the 4×200 free relay world record re-emerged as veteran James Guy showed a resurgent performance in the 400 free, posting his fastest swim in a decade in 3:44.04.

A few days later, in the 200 free, 2023 world champion Matt Richards produced his third-fastest swim ever in 1:44.77, with Guy (1:45.38), Duncan Scott (1:45.44) and Jack McMillan (1:45.91) rounding out the top four in a competitive final.

We asked SwimSwam readers which world record is more likely to go down this summer: the 4×100 free at the hands of the U.S. men, or the 4×200 free at the hands of the Brits.

The majority of votes went to the U.S. men, as 71.3% think they have a better chance of getting the 4×100 record than the Brits do of taking down the 4×200 mark.

The American men will have their shot at the Pan Pacific Championships, which will have relay timed finals, and they’ve already got their four men selected for the event after Jack Alexy, Patrick Sammon, Destin Lasco and Guiliano qualified last summer.

If we use each swimmer’s fastest time from January 1, 2025, until now, there’s a very realistic chance they take down the record if everyone is firing on all cylinders. Alexy is the fastest American ever from a flat start (46.81) and owns the second-fastest relay split ever in 45.95.

Note that in the splits below, both times from Lasco and Guiliano are flat starts.

Split Add-Ups – Bests from Jan. 1, 2025 to Present

Based on the math, a sub-46 flying leg from Alexy is the faster option for the team. If they opt to lead off Alexy, the U.S. will need at least two of the three other men to split under 47 seconds. Sammon was 46.70 on the second leg of the U.S. mixed 4×100 free relay at the 2025 World Championships that broke the world record.

As for the British men, if they can have Richards, Guy and McMillan average 1:45-flat over the first three legs, or just under, Scott has split 1:43-mid from a flying start before, which could be their path to the world record.

Using their fastest-ever splits, including Guy’s 1:43.80 split from 2017 and Scott’s 1:43.45 from 2021, the Brits theoretically crush the world record, but it’s been nine years since Guy was under 1:44.

Split Add-Ups

Note that the splits above don’t include Tom Dean, the Tokyo Olympic champion in the 200 free, who owns a lifetime best of 1:44.22 (2021) and has been 1:43.53 (2022) from a takeover. Dean withdrew from the Aquatics GB Championships due to injury, but was still named to the European Championship roster.

If he’s near his best, he could replace McMillan and increase the team’s world record odds, but he hasn’t broken 1:46 in the 200 free since 2023. For what it’s worth, swapping in Dean’s fastest-ever relay split for McMillan in the left column, the add-up comes out to a blazing 6:55.08.

Another key thing to note is that the British men will only have a shot at the 4×200 free relay world record at the European Championships, as at the Commonwealth Games, they’ll be representing their individual nations. Guy and Dean represent England, Scott swims for Scotland, Richards competes for Wales, and McMillan represents Northern Ireland.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: After stating his intention to break the world record in the 400 IM, what will Leon Marchand go at the European Championships?

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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.