At Italian National Short Course Championship which took place in Riccione on 30th November and 1st December 2021 we witnessed two amazing World Junior records, both set by Simone Cerasuolo in men’s 50m and 100m breast with a time of 25.85 and 56.66, respectively.
Simone Cerasuolo, born in 2003, (188cm for 89kg), swam very fast, and he reached an international top-level result.
Striking! After this result my friend Braden asked me to forecast the result of 100m in long course.
“But why me? I don’t fancy any kind of forecast. I really need to find new friends.”
Anyway, I decided to give it a go. But first thing first I want to state, once more, that this is just a numbers game: for sure it is not a scientific calculation.
- You can see the mens 50m breast world junior record race analysis clicking here
- men’s 100m breast race analysis
RACE VIDEO MEN’S 50 M BREAST WORLD JUNIOR RECORD
RACE VIDEO 100M BREAST WORLD JUNIOR RECORD
We can appreciate the consistency of the speed, and all kinematic parameters.
Simone Cerasuolo is a real sprinter and he started the first 50m really aggressively.
To understand how Simone can handle the long course I studied his best performance in the long course.
Simone Cerasuolo swam his best time during the Italian summer championship in August 2021 with a time of 1:00.59.
LONG COURSE RACE ANALYSIS
The long course race analysis is essential to study the speed evolution during the race. For my “nonscientific” forecast I split the race into different parts and then I composed my personal “puzzle” combining these parts with some sections taken from the race in short course: the start up to 15m and the second turn from 5m before the wall to 15m after the push.
In order to estimate the time of every single part in advance, I calculated the loss of speed in percentage between one part and the following one of the race in long course.
For the first swimming phase of our hypothetical race – that is from 15m to 25m – I used the same speed of first 25m in short course, from 15m to 20m.
From 25m to 35m I used the same speed of the swimming phase at second 25m in short course, from 40m to 45m, and in the end to calculate the time of this phase I added the percentage of loss of speed that Simone Cerasuolo had in long course from 15-25m to 25-35m. I did the same for every next single phase of 100m.
See the graph for a better understanding.
So, I tried to apply a scientific method to something which is absolutely not scientific.
This is just a mathematical game, and I am sure it is possible to find some other ways to estimate the result.
The “hypothetical” final result is 59.10… there is no guarantee … it was just fun!
Thanks to Simone’s coach Cesare Casella for his availability in this analysis. There are a few important international swimmers who are under his guidance – notably record-setting breaststrokers Fabio Scozzoli and Martina Carraro.
RACE VIDEO CERASUOLO PB 100M BREAST LCM
This story comes courtesy of STEFANO NURRA
- Analyst of Turkish Swimming Federation
- Analyst of Energy Standard